2020 NHL Playoff Preview: Nashville Predators vs. Arizona Coyotes
This matchup between the sixth and eleventh seed in the Western Conference may not seem too exciting or debatable on the surface, but this series is one that many are overlooking. Neither team has lived up to it’s potential this year, and although there may not be a ton of history between these two teams, both clubs really want and need this series win, and for different reasons. The Nashville Predators finished the regular season with a record of 35–26–8, a .565 winning percentage. The Arizona Coyotes’ 33–29–8, put them behind the Preds with a winning percentage of .529. Going into the breakdown of this series, I don’t have a clear idea of who to pick for this one. There are many factors to consider, as the teams have great differences in their rosters and records in the playoffs. I hope to simplify this series and make a prediction for who I pick to advance to the first round, as it truly is a toss-up.
Despite Different Playing Styles, Arizona Coyotes Have Statistical Advantage
The Predators and the Coyotes play very different styles when it comes to the core of their game. The Preds are a more offensive team, posting a sixteenth-best 3.07 goals per game, and a twelfth-worst 3.10 goals against per game. The Coyotes, on the other hand, put up a ninth-worst 2.71 goals per game while only giving up 2.61 goals per game, third-best in the league. In terms of special teams, the Yotes possess the better power play and penalty kill. 19.2 percent power play conversion rate comes out above the Preds’ seventh-worst power play at 17.3 percent. The Coyotes also dominate the penalty kill. Similarly to the rest of their game, Arizona finished the season with the fifth-best kill at 82.7 percent, towering over Nashville’s third-worst 76.1 percent when down a man. Although it may seem like the Coyotes get a huge advantage in terms of power play and penalty kill, it actually doesn’t hurt the Preds too much when looking a bit closer. Even though the Coyotes’ power play is better than the Nashville penalty kill, it’s still not great, so neither club should see an abundance of goals through special teams. There is no doubt that Arizona has the stats advantage, but it may not be that much of a game-changer.
Both Teams Have Options in Net
This was an interesting year for both the Predators and the Coyotes when it came to goaltending — great years for both Yotes goalies while franchise keeper Pekka Rinne had a career-worst season for the Preds. In Arizona Kuemper and Raanta split the season, putting up .928 and .921 save percentages respectively. While Rinne recorded a .895 save percentage, one bright spot for the Preds this year in net was “backup” goalie Juuse Saros who ended up playing 40 games, putting a .914 save percentage to his name. Although the Coyotes look to have the advantage in net, if Nashville starts Saros, this could shift in the Preds’ direction. Saros is 25 years old, compared to the other three goalies in this series who are 30 years of age or older. Though Saros didn’t put up the most incredible numbers, the break between the season and the qualifying round likely affects him the least, being the youngest. Also, with how long of a break it will have been for the Coyotes goaltenders, the confidence they gained during the season will be reset, so they may not play as well as they did in the shortened year. Assuming that the Yotes goalies play similarly to how they did throughout the season, the question arises if the Predators offense is stronger than the Coyotes goaltending and vice versa. In other words, Arizona’s goaltending could outdo the Predators’ powerful offense, but Nashville could also break down a goaltending core that is at the center of Arizona’s team.
Hub-Cities Provide Something Different for Predators and Coyotes
Playing some of the most intense hockey of the year in a hub-city is going to be a unique experience for the teams participating in the qualifying rounds. Aside from simply bringing a new atmosphere to the game, the hub-cities also create the argument that some teams could get an advantage or be disadvantaged through the change in scenery. What this comes down to is the attendance at each teams’ home arena. The Arizona Coyotes have the fourth-worst attendance in the NHL filling the arena to only 85.3 percent capacity. The Nashville Predators have the seventh-best attendance rate in the league at 101.7 percent. For the Coyotes, playing in the hub-city could be an advantage to them as they know how to create their own energy. Without a huge crowd pumping them up like Nashville has, they are able to get excited within themselves, so having no fans in the stands won’t be that significant of a difference for the Yotes. One advantage for Nashville is that with no fans in the stands, they won’t face the same kind of immediate pressure that they would have at home. The Predators had a disappointing year this season, so they are expected to show that they are better than they were by getting into the playoffs.
Despite Nashville Having the Experience Advantage, Both Teams Want and Need the Series Equally
The emotion that this series will bring for both teams is part of what makes it one of the most interesting qualifying rounds to watch. Although both teams need this win, both for the players and the franchises, it is for different reasons. For the Preds, they are at the end of an era, with many players in or at the end of their prime. Nashville has made the playoffs every year for the past five seasons, and with the exception of the 2016–2017 season when they lost in the finals, they have not made it past the second round. If Nashville is going to get another real shot at the Cup before they have to start their rebuild, this year could be the one. Things are a bit more complicated for the Coyotes. The last time the Yotes made it to the playoffs was in the 2011–2012 season. In fact, the last time the Coyotes were in the postseason, they weren’t even the Arizona Coyotes. That’s how long it has been. Arizona has been developing well for the past few years, and many thought that this could be the year for them to break out, and although they didn’t make it into the top eight in their conference, they have been given a second chance with the new playoff format. Very few players on the Coyotes roster have been to the playoffs, so they want to show that they are a team that can compete. The lack of experience could actually be a good thing for Arizona. Because so few players on the team have been in a situation like the one they are in, most will be itching to playing their first truly meaningful hockey games. I could see many players on the Coyotes have a much better qualifying round than their regular season. This brings me to my next point. Aside from the Coyotes having to prove themselves as a team, individual players have to show what they can do as well, putting extra fire behind them. One player that comes to mind is Clayton Keller, who as the Coyotes first round pick (seventh overall) in the 2016 draft, hasn’t quite shown how good of a player I think he can be. The last couple of years for the 21-year-old have been 40–50 point years, and although that’s not bad, it’s not what he is expected to do. Taylor Hall and Phil Kessel are also players that need to prove themselves to Coyotes fans. Hall didn’t have a bad year in Arizona, but he hasn’t done much in his career overall, and this is his chance to show he can be a standout player on an elite team and not just a subpar one. Kessel had arguably the worst year in his lengthy career, and he really has to step things up in the qualifying rounds to show his commitment to the game, which has yet to be proven.
To Summarize: Who has the Offensive Edge?
Nashville Predators. Simply in terms of the numbers, Nashville brings much more to the table than Arizona. I think this could shift in the qualifying round, but that is simply speculation.
To Summarize: Who has the Defensive Edge?
Arizona Coyotes. The Yotes really locked things down this year in their own end. They had a solid goals against average, and I don’t see any reason why this would change in the coming months.
To Summarize: Who has the Goaltending Edge?
Arizona Coyotes. This is a close one. Although Arizona had the much better numbers in net, Rinne should never be counted out of the playoffs, no matter how bad of a year he had. Saros could also come in and save the day for the Preds if he is chosen to play. Despite this, I still have the Coyotes on this one. They have two solid options who had great years, likely to continue throughout the summer.
My Pick: Arizona Coyotes
Yes, it is an unpopular opinion, but I truly believe that the Coyotes can come out on top in this series. The only reason Arizona might not win is if they can’t convert offensively. If Rinne or Saros gets hot, I could see this as an issue, but based on the season I don’t see it happening. I think with how good of a team Arizona has been this year in their own end, they will be able to slow down the Preds just enough to let their offense do what they do. With the age difference and the Coyotes’ desire to win, I see Arizona coming into the shortened series with much more energy than Nashville. If the Coyotes can get momentum, they could win on that alone, as they only need three victories to move on. Lastly, the Coyotes will be rocking their Kachina jerseys throughout the postseason, and you know that they say, “look good, play good.”
