2020 NHL Playoff Preview: New York Islanders vs. Florida Panthers
It has been three years since the Florida Panthers have made it to the postseason and it’s finally time for the Cats to prove themselves. They will take on the New York Islanders as their first opponent. No, it’s not 2016, but it is the same situation the Panthers found themselves in four years ago. Three-year drought, then the Islanders. The Islanders were able to take the number seven seed in the Eastern Conference this year with a record of 35–23–10, converting to a .588 winning percentage. The Panthers took seed number ten with a record of 35–26–8, a .565 winning percentage. This should be an interesting series. Each team has excelled in a section of the game the other has struggled in. Will the Islanders offense be able to convert or will the Panthers defense finally pick up and allow their offense to take their shot at cracking the Islanders defense and goaltending? I hope to make things a bit simpler, as I break down what factors go into each team winning the series, and give my pick on who will advance to the first round of the playoffs.
The Florida Panthers Have a lot to Prove
With two of the most underrated players in the league, Alexander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau, the Panthers should have been much better than they were for the past few years. Although an 82.8 percent attendance rate this season doesn’t scream pressure, it doesn’t change the fact that the Panthers have only made the playoffs twice in the last 22 years. For the past few seasons they have been pretty good, and have been considered a bubble team, yet still not able to make the playoffs. The closest they got was in the 2017–2018 season when they came up just one point short of the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. When they did make the playoffs in 2016, they finished at the top of the Atlantic division, then lost in six games to… well we know who. To sum it up, the Panthers have been really bad for a really long time. This year they had a pretty good roster, so it will definitely be interesting to see what they do with the opportunity they have been given. Although Barkov and Huberdeau aren’t playing to “prove themselves,” finishing as the top leading scorers for the Panthers, they are playing to show that they aren’t just the guys that put points on the board. They need to show they are also the guys that can finally lead their team to a playoff series win. Don’t get me wrong, the Islanders have had their fair share of letdowns in the last few years, but they have a significantly better track record than the Panthers, so they may not have the same fire coming into game one, especially after such a long break.
The Panthers Have Confirmed Bad Defense and Bad Goaltending are Not a Good Combination
This offseason, Sergei Bobrovsky was considered one of the biggest free agents, signing a massive seven-year deal with the Florida Panthers worth $70 million. Things really started to look up in Florida based on Bobrovsky’s .913 save percentage last year with the Columbus Blue Jackets, with an even better .925 save percentage to his name in the playoffs. To say the least, Bobrovsky hasn’t played like $70 million. Bobrovsky recorded an even .900 save percentage this season, only playing worse in his second season in the NHL with the Flyers. Florida’s lacking defense did not help Bobrovsky in his disappointing season. The Cats gave up the fourth-most goals per game in the NHL this year, amongst the league’s worst teams, averaging 3.25 goals against per game. The Panthers offense has bailed out Bobrovsky, and the season. The Cats were able to put up the sixth-best goals per game in the NHL, scoring an average of 3.30 goals per game. The Panthers defense, but especially Bobrovsky, have to turn it up in the playoffs for Florida to have a shot at winning. Bobrovsky showed he was able to do it last year, stopping arguably the most offensive team in the league, the Tampa Bay Lightning, but he also had a much better regular season. The lengthy hiatus between the last regular-season games and the qualifying matchups is going to make or break Bobrovsky. It may allow him to reset and come back stronger, but it is possible that he comes back the same or even worse, as the break might affect an older goalie negatively. Bobrovsky also has the added pressure of having no alternative if he can’t step up, as the Panthers don’t have a backup goalie that is ready to play in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Islanders have both Varlamov and Greiss as options. Despite being older goalies, both had similarly decent seasons, posting .914 and .913 save percentages respectively. Bobrovsky has the advantage no doubt if he can play like he did last year in the playoffs, but the likelihood of that happening is slim.
Islanders Swept Season Series Versus Panthers
The Islanders play a very different style than the Panthers. New York puts a lot of focus on their goaltending and defensive play. Though their offense has suffered slightly this year, the work they put in while playing in their own zone has paid off. The Islanders gave up the ninth-least goals per game this year, averaging 2.79 goals against, but they scored an average of only 2.78 goals per game. Special teams also saw the same lopsided game from the Islanders. The Isles took the number 15 penalty kill this season at 80.7 percent while suffering on the power play, only converting 17.3 percent of the time. The Panthers are the opposite. A 78.5 percent penalty kill puts the Cats at number 20 in the league, compared to their power play that showed a 21.3 percent success rate. The Islanders taking every game this year against the Panthers is most likely a preview of what is to come in their qualifying matchup. The Isles have shown that good defense and goaltending will pay off, even if it’s against a good offensive team. Despite being outshot through the season series, the Islanders goalies held out, allowing top-end forwards such as Barzal to work their magic.
How Does the Deadlocked Playing Style Between the Two Clubs Affect Barzal and Barkov?
The series between the Islanders and the Panthers centers around two of the most offensively gifted players in the league. Barzal or Barkov being able to turn it on for this series could be a deciding factor in the games between these two teams, especially with the clubs’ different playing styles. I think it is likely that Barzal will be able to shine in this series over Barkov. If Barkov has to sit back and worry about playing defense, the points he would usually put up could take a dive. For the Islanders, defense is covered, allowing Barzal to do what he does best. The speed of Barzal does not look good for a defensively lacking team such as the Panthers. In the three games the Islanders played against the Panthers, Barzal skated circles around the Cats. Despite being under point per game this season, Barzal put up four points in his three games versus Florida this year. If Barzal is able to keep this up throughout the qualifying round, I really like the Islanders’ chances.
To Summarize: Who has the Offensive Edge?
Florida Panthers. Huberdeau and Barkov combined for 140 points this year in 69 games. The Panthers have some other pretty significant contributors as well. Hoffman, Dadonov, Trocheck, Vatrano, and Connolly, are all able to add something to the score sheet. The issue is, the offense won’t have a chance to score if they need to sit back and lock things down defensively.
To Summarize: Who has the Defensive Edge?
New York Islanders. This is an easy decision. No matter how you put it, the Panthers defense has been lacking this year. Giving up the sixth-fewest goals in the NHL is a big deal for the Islanders, especially when going up against a team that could bring some serious firepower upfront.
To Summarize: Who has the Goaltending Edge?
New York Islanders. The numbers make this pretty simple. The only way I see Bobrovsky being the better goalie in this series is if he is able to find the same game he had last year with Columbus. If he is able to do that, the series could turn completely upside down.
My Pick: New York Islanders
With how tight the Islanders have been in their own end, Barzal, Nelson, Lee, and the rest of the New York offense will get their chance to step things up from their regular season play. Out of all eight qualifying matchups, the winner of this series will likely be the weakest team that advances to the first round. This series is pretty simple. One team will win, then they will get eliminated. It’s interesting that these teams ended up together, as they are likely the two clubs that will be able to make the easiest adjustment to playing in the hub cities. The hub cities mean no home arena, no fans. Each of these teams has gotten used to one of these factors. All jokes aside, this is a pretty tough matchup to predict. The teams play very different styles, and Bobrovsky could change the whole course of the series if he turns it on. It will be an exciting one to watch, but after it’s done, the winner will have a tough road ahead of them.
