2020 NHL Playoff Preview: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Montreal Canadiens
With the NHL not being able to finish the regular season, there would be no way to start the playoffs with every organization satisfied by the proposed plan. Some teams higher up in the rankings would have a lot to lose with more teams getting a shot at the playoffs, and there would be some teams that would have the most to gain, as their playoff chances were slim by the end of the shortened regular season. The Penguins and Canadiens have likely the most to lose and gain respectively. Finishing in the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference with a record of 40–23–6, a winning percentage of .623, the Penguins are one of those teams that are likely damaged by the NHL’s return-to-play plan. Only three points back of the Flyers, the Penguins ended the season just out of reach in terms of getting a bye in the qualifying round. Out of all the teams making the 24 team playoff, the Montreal Canadians surely benefit the most. The Canadiens finished the regular season with the number twelve seed in the Eastern Conference, a record of 31–31–9, a .500 winning percentage. On March 11, the day the season was canceled, the Canadiens had a less than one percent chance to make the playoffs. In fact, the next game the Canadiens were supposed to play, on the night of March 12, was against the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres were just one spot back of the Canadians and had Buffalo won, the Sabres would be in the qualifying round, not the Canadiens. But none of this matters, because this is where the standings stood when the NHL canceled their season. Though it may seem like there’s an obvious winner here, nothing about the way the NHL will award the Stanley Cup this year is conventional, so there are definitely arguments to be made. I hope to help give clarity as to what factors might influence this series, as well as my pick for who will be one of the 16 teams to make the playoffs this summer.
Pittsburgh Penguins Will Finally be Healthy
Throughout the course of the 2019–2020 shortened season, the Penguins have had to play through 27 significant injuries, taking a toll on their lineup and star players. Despite this setback, the Penguins still had a great season, making them one of the most dangerous teams in the play-in-rounds this summer. Due to the break between the season and the qualifying rounds, every team in the NHL will be back to their full lineup, with the exception of players with long-term injuries. For the Penguins, this means they will have the full offensive firepower that they didn’t have throughout the regular season. When looking at the record of the Penguins this season and the injuries they have had to deal with, who knows how good they could have been with a complete roster. This is bad news for the Canadiens because they are going to be the first team to face the entirety of the Penguins, a team that few have taken on this season.
Pittsburgh has Simply Outperformed Montreal this Season
In every category from goals against to power play, the Penguins have the numbers advantage. This season, the Penguins posted a tenth-best 3.20 goals for while only giving up 2.84 goals per game. Montreal saw a below-average 2.93 goals per game, as well as a poor goals against per game, at 3.10. Special teams saw similar statistics from each team. While the Pens converted 19.9 percent of the time on the power play this season, Pittsburgh truly shined on the penalty kill, posting an 82.1 percent success rate. The Habs only scored 17.7 percent of the time when on the power play, and were successful in killing penalties 78.7 percent of the time, contributing to their subpar play. No matter how you slice it, the Canadiens have not played to the level of the Penguins this season. With Pittsburgh getting their full lineup back, it is likely that we see a continuation of this trend in the qualifying round.
Cary Price Could Steal the Series for Montreal Canadiens
Cary Price should never be counted out when it comes playoff time. Although Price has not played great this season, posting a .909 save percentage, one cannot deny Price’s outstanding playoff performances. This is crucial when putting Price’s playoff records in the context of the shortened, five-game series that will be played this year. Even if the Canadiens are not the better team, and don’t deserve to win, all Price has to do is steal a few games and the Habs are in a great spot. With how Price has played the last few times around, this is certainly possible, giving validity to the argument that Penguins fans have against the proposed format. Pittsburgh had a great season, especially with the injuries they have had to deal with, so fans are fed up with the idea that they could be knocked out of the playoffs by a team that had almost a zero percent chance at making the playoffs before the break. Personally, I don’t think Price is as daunting as he is being made out to be. Price has had an incredible career, but he is getting up there in age. The 32-year-old goaltender has been trending in the wrong direction the last few years, something to be expected of an older guy. The age of Price is also something to take into consideration when thinking about the break between the season and the qualifying rounds to come. Price will likely take some time to get back to how he was playing this season if he is even able to. Although I don’t think Price will play like Price at his prime, I think he will be able to match, if not be slightly better than the subpar Pittsburgh goaltending we saw this season. In June of 2017, the Penguins had to make the choice to either protect Fleury or Murray in the Vegas Golden Knights expansion draft. As most would, the Penguins protected Matt Murray, the younger goaltender with promising stats. This season though, Murray has not played up to his potential. Murray recorded a .899 save percentage, not even close to his performance in the last few seasons. Price will likely be able to match Murray, if not play slightly better, but I don’t think the gap is significant enough to warrant nervousness in the Penguins locker room or their fans.
How Does Sudden Change in Season for Montreal Affect Their Play?
Before the beginning of the 2019–2020 season, the Montreal Canadiens weren’t expected to be near the top of their division, but they were also not expected to end the season in 24th place. When looking down the Habs’ lineup, they don’t have a bad roster, so to say the least, the Canadiens have not played to their expectations this season. The question is, how does this unexpected shift in the season change the way Montreal will play? They have been gifted an opportunity to show that their record does not represent their team. They have been given a fresh slate. For Montreal, the way to prove they are better than they have shown this year is simple. Beat the Penguins. This motivation for Domi and the rest of the Canadiens could be a series changer. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has an incredible amount of pressure to win this series. Loosing out before the playoffs to the 24th seed would be an embarrassment to their organization and the season. It is entirely likely that the winner of this series comes down to who can control their emotions the best.
To Summarize: Who has the Offensive Edge?
Pittsburgh Penguins. This is simple. An average 3.20 goals per game is outstanding, especially with a hurt lineup. Crosby and Malkin will quickly turn things on as they normally do, and with Guentzel back, the sky’s the limit.
To Summarize: Who has the Defensive Edge?
Pittsburgh Penguins. Again, simply based on statistics, the Penguins have a significantly better goals against per game than the Canadiens do. With a full, rested lineup I don’t see how the Pens don’t pick up right where they left off.
To Summarize: Who has the Goaltending Edge?
Montreal Canadiens. This is a tough pick. When looking at how each starter played during the regular season, Price is the clear winner, but with how the break could affect younger and older goaltenders differently, things could shift in favor of Murray. However, Price has shown he steps things up in the playoffs, so I think it is possible for him to steal a game or two.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins
In terms of stats, there is no doubt here. The only way I see the Canadiens taking this one is if they are able to win off pure motivation and emotion. If the Habs lineup can come back as a different team from when the season was canceled, I think they have a real shot at winning. Even if this happens, I think the Penguins still come out on top. They have faced an incredible amount of adversity this season, and they have a certain belief and work ethic in their locker room. No matter what gets thrown at them, the Penguins will likely take it in stride, and on to the first round of the playoffs.
