2020 NHL Playoff Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
With the NHL planning to resume this summer, hockey fans across the country are looking forward to the exciting, qualifying rounds ahead. The play-in rounds will be best-of-five, making each game that much more valuable. Amongst all eight matchups, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Columbus Blue Jackets are one of the most anticipated. The teams are seeded at number 8 and 9 in the Eastern Conference. Toronto’s shortened season record of 36–25–9 is just slightly better than the Blue Jacket’s 33–22–15. Both teams finished with a .579 winning percentage, each taking one game in the season series between the two clubs. The lack of separation in the standings between these two teams makes for a difficult prediction, but I hope to provide valid factors in this series, as well as my thoughts on who will move on to the first round of the playoffs.
Lack of Playoff Experience in Net for the Blue Jackets
After the Blue Jackets lost Sergei Bobrovsky, things were looking down for goaltending in Columbus. However, both Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo proved they were solid solutions to the issues between the pipes. Merzlikins especially impressed, posting a .923 save percentage in his 2019–2020 campaign. Despite both Blue Jackets goalies being 26 years old, neither has any playoff experience. Although Anderson had a subpar season with a .909 save percentage, does he get the edge knowing he is a more experienced, veteran goalie? Probably not. The Blue Jackets goalies have overcome a lot this year with how they were expected to play, and they seem ready to prove themselves in the post-season. For whatever it’s worth, the Blue Jackets have a viable backup, while Toronto does not have much behind Anderson. This is really crucial for Columbus, knowing how they have had to deal with injuries this year.
Do Hub Cities Relieve Pressure for Toronto?
The Maple Leafs have not won a playoff series since 2004. Fans are fed up, and playing in Toronto is a lot of pressure. Toronto is known as a hockey city, so fans are dying for the Leafs to have some sort of playoff success. Things started to look up recently with Matthews and Marner coming in as young superstars, and Tavares serving the role as the veteran leader. But still, no. Since the Leafs started to make the playoffs again in the 2016–2017 season, there has not been a single point per game player in the playoffs on the Toronto roster. Additionally, Marner, Matthews, and Tavares have all been minus players, at minus 1, 5, and 5, respectively. To put it simply, Toronto hasn’t lived up to the hype. With each conference moving to a hub city for the 2020 playoffs, maybe the big players in Toronto can step up and show they are just as good in the playoffs as they are in the regular season. They need to prove they are “that guy.” The guy that scores in overtime in game 7 (or game 5 this year). It’s a lot of pressure, but maybe playing in an away stadium with no fans in the stands gives Matthews, Marner, and Tavares an advantage. Columbus also hasn’t played great on the road this year. The Blue Jackets posted a record of 13–21–11 away this season, compared to their 20–16–4 home record. To sum up, the hub city most likely gives Toronto an advantage, and possibly a significant one, taking into account Columbus’s performance this year when they aren’t at Nationwide Arena.
Toronto Playing Style vs. Columbus Playing Style: Wide Open Offense or Shut Down Defense
The Maple Leafs and Blue Jackets playing styles could not be more different. Toronto plays a very offensive game, benefiting from a lot of room to skate. The top offensive players on the Leafs are some of the best in the league, despite their disappointing playoff performances. Toronto scores an average of 3.39 goals per game, allowing an average of 3.17 goals against per game. They have the number six power play in the NHL, with a 23.1 conversion rate. This is balanced out by their below average, number 21 penalty kill, with a 77.7 percent success rate. Columbus is the complete opposite in every category. The Blue Jackets play a physical, hard checking game. They benefit from a tight game where they can get the puck deep and go to work on their forecheck. They don’t give up as many goals as the Leafs, but they also don’t have any superstars up front, so they don’t score as many either. Columbus scores an average of 2.57 goals per game while giving up an average of 2.61 goals per game. Their special teams are also the inverse of Toronto’s. They finished the regular season with an average 16.4 percent power play, ranking at number 27 in the league, yet have the number 12 penalty kill, with an 81.7 percent success rate. The bottom line is, each team has a solid goalie, Toronto has a powerful offense, and Columbus plays with a quality defensive mindset. Will Toronto’s offense break down the Jackets defense, or will defense and goaltending hold out, giving Columbus’s mediocre offense a chance to score against the equally mediocre Toronto defense?
Can John Tortorella Win Another Series for the Columbus Blue Jackets?
We saw it last year. The Blue Jackets were put in a similar situation. A team people thought wouldn’t do much, up in the first round against one of the most powerful offensive teams in the league. After the first period went downhill in Tampa, Tortorella stepped in. He put the signature Tortorella work ethic and mindset into his players, and they never looked back. Although Toronto does have incredible firepower up front, they are still nowhere near the lineup of the Lightning, the Jackets took on last year. Tortorella’s mindset has never changed, so whatever Matthews, Marner, Tavares, or even Nylander throws at Tortorella’s boys, it is likely they will take it in stride. The emotion behind the bench for Toronto is contrary to that of Columbus. Ray Ferraro commented on the Leafs bench this season saying, “There’s no fire, like everybody just sits there and watches the game till it’s their turn to go on the ice… Nobody’s angry, nobody’s chatting… There’s no energy.” This is a problem come playoff time, and it could partly be the answer to why the Leafs haven’t had playoff success in a long time. The playoffs, in any sport, but specifically in hockey, are about emotion. Columbus wins in this category by a landslide.
To Summarize: Who has the Offensive Edge?
Toronto Maple Leafs. There is no doubt here. One cannot deny what Toronto’s top line brings to the game. Whether 5-on-5 or on the power play, they will come through with scoring. That being said, there are not a lot of contributions coming from lower down in their lineup. Columbus really suffers offensively. They don’t have a star power forward, or a whole lot of secondary scoring either.
To Summarize: Who has the Defensive Edge?
Columbus Blue Jackets. The Jackets gave up the fourth-least goals in the league. Toronto gave up the sixth-most. Columbus is going to make Toronto work really hard for goals.
To Summarize: Who has the Goaltending Edge?
Columbus Blue Jackets. We saw the numbers from this season. Anderson simply wasn’t that good. He did turn it up in the playoffs last year, but he was also better throughout the season. Additionally, it is likely that the break between the season and this qualifying round will affect Anderson more than it will the younger goaltending duo in Columbus. It is possible that experience for the Jackets is an issue, but based on the amount of adversity Columbus experienced this season, they shouldn’t be worried.
My Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets
This is one of the hardest series to predict. The two teams opposite playing styles mean winning the series will come down to one thing. Who can do what they do better? I think with the fire and adversity behind Columbus, they will be able to get past playing all of their games away from home, and be able to push back against the top of Toronto’s lineup. Once Toronto’s star forwards are shut down, there isn’t much. Like Ferraro said, Toronto doesn’t have great energy to begin with, so the hard-working Jackets will likely deflate the Leafs.
