2020 NHL Playoff Preview: Vancouver Canucks vs. Minnesota Wild
If at the beginning of the season someone predicted that we would be seeing a qualifying matchup between the Vancouver Canucks and the Minnesota Wild, they would be laughed at. Not necessarily because the NHL would not be going directly to the playoffs from the end of the regular season, but because of how unlikely this specific matchup is. The Canucks are a young team that had huge potential for this season, and many put them in the playoffs near the top of their division. The Wild, on the other hand, is an older team who based on their roster and beginning of the season, was put out of the playoff picture by many. The Vancouver Canucks finished in the seventh seed in the Western Conference with a record of 36–27–6, a .565 winning percentage. The Minnesota Wild finished in seed number ten with a record of 35–27–7, a .558 winning percentage. Although Vancouver has been considered the favorite in this series, the Wild only finished one point behind Vancouver, and there are certainly arguments to be made for Minnesota. Below are the factors that I believe go into this series, as well as who I think will advance to round one of the playoffs.
Both Teams Play a Very Similar Style
Despite being polar opposites in terms of their rosters, both the Canucks and the Wild play a similar game. Both teams are offensively minded, as the Canucks scored an eighth-best average of 3.25 goals per game this season, the Wild putting up a twelfth-best 3.16 goals per game this year. In terms of goals against, neither team excelled. The Canucks let in an average of 3.10 goals per game, eleventh-worst in the NHL while the Wild gave up an average of 3.14 goals per game, coming in at eighth-worst in the league. Special teams saw a similar style of play from the two clubs. The Canucks finished the season with a fourth-best, 24.2 percent conversion rate, amongst the league’s best teams. The Wild also had an above-average power play at number 11 in the league, a 21.3 percent success rate. In terms of penalty kill, the Canucks had a rate of 80.5 percent when down a man, coming in at number 16 in the league. The Wild, on the other hand, really suffered this year when on the kill. A seventh-worst penalty kill at 77.2 percent didn’t do Minnesota any favors when it came to goals against. Because of how similarly the teams play, this series is going to come down to who can play to their identity better. The Canucks seem to have the advantage here, as they had better numbers in every category, but the Wild shocked a lot of people this year with their play, so it is hard to know who will come out stronger in the qualifying round. One huge advantage for the Canucks is in special teams. The Wild’s subpar penalty kill will be no match for the powerful Vancouver power play, so things could shift even more in terms of numbers towards Vancouver if the Wild take too many penalties or if they aren’t prepared for what is going to come their way when they do.
Young Stars Versus Experienced Veterans
The Vancouver Canucks have an average age of about 27.8 years old, compared to the average age of 30.3 for the Minnesota Wild. Although this might not seem significant, it is especially important when looking at it in the context of these playoffs in particular. With the lengthy break between the season and the qualifying rounds, older teams are most likely going to take a bigger hit than a younger team. Younger teams are going to be able to get back into the swing of things quickly while an older team might take some time to get back to how they were playing. This issue is even harder for older teams to overcome this year, as the qualifying rounds are only five games rather than seven. If the Wild can’t get back into it quickly, a series win would likely be just out of reach. On the other hand, having an older team can come in handy as they have more playoff experience. Top players for the Canucks such as Pettersson, Hughes, and Boeser, have never played in a playoff game. They may play as well as they did in the regular season, if not better, due to their excitement, but they could also crumble under the pressure of a playoff-like atmosphere. I don’t think this is something the Canucks need to worry about. With no fans in the stands, the pressure that is usually present during the postseason won’t be there, allowing young players to do what they do best.
Vancouver Canucks Have not Performed Well on the Road
With the NHL playoffs being held in hub-cities, home and away records become an important factor to consider when looking at a matchup. Even if a team is highly ranked, if they can’t play in another team’s building, they likely won’t play as well in the hub-cities. The Vancouver Canucks are a good example of this. The Canucks had a relatively good season, despite their road record being less than encouraging. The Canucks finished the season with an outstanding record of 22–13–4 at home, but when away, the Canucks record fell to 14–20–2. Although the hub-cities will benefit the Minnesota Wild, it won’t be by a significant margin. The Wild also saw a better record when playing at the Excel Energy Center, but not by much. A 19–16–5 record compared to 16–18–2 on the road isn’t terrible, but still not great. Although the hub-cities may not be that big of an advantage in this qualifying matchup, it is something to keep in mind for these teams throughout the rest of the playoffs.
Vancouver Canucks’ Goalies are Players to Watch
Both Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko had impressive seasons. They each had career years, with the exception of one year each when they played under 10 games. Although Markstrom is likely the goalie that will play most, if not all, of the playoffs for Vancouver, the team is set in terms of a solid goaltending tandem. The Canucks have one experienced veteran and one younger player, constantly improving. Markstrom ended the season with a .918 save percentage, and Demko ended the year with a .905 save percentage. Another important thing to note is that neither goalie has any playoff experience. With Markstrom being the likely starter, this could actually be a good thing. After 10 years in the league, Markstrom is probably itching to get his shot at playoff action. Especially with how good of a year he had this year, Markstrom will have the confidence to lead his team into the playoffs, something he is desperate to do. Additionally, Vancouver’s goaltending has simply outperformed the Wild’s goalkeepers this year. Alex Stalock posted an average .910 save percentage, and Devan Dubnyk put up a below average .890 save percentage. Although the Wild’s goalies win the experience game, it likely won’t be significant, considering the season they had.
To Summarize: Who has the Offensive Edge?
Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks have a ton of firepower up front. They have an excessive amount of young players who can score, so the older Wild will likely have a hard time keeping up. Almost none of the Canucks main offense has playoff experience, and the only way I see the Wild taking this category is if Vancouver’s developing stars aren’t up to the task of the playoffs. Additionally, if the Wild’s Kevin Fiala can keep things up, I could also see Minnesota taking this category due to his best NHL season by far. Putting up 54 points in 64 games, mostly at the end of the season, Fiala had a career year, but it is hard to imagine one player taking down an entire offense that has been consistently great.
To Summarize: Who has the Defensive Edge?
Vancouver Canucks. Simply in terms of numbers, the Canucks have the defensive advantage. Vancouver also has a lot of scoring coming from the blue line, especially with Hughes developing into a star defenseman.
To Summarize: Who has the Goaltending Edge?
Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks goaltending has played great this season, and much better than that of the Minnesota Wild. Even though the Canucks don’t have the same experience that the Wild do in net, it is possibly an advantage more than it is a setback.
My Pick: Vancouver Canucks
This pick is simply based on what we know at this point in terms of numbers and the regular season. Although it may seem like I am completely counting out the Wild, they have some possible advantages that can’t be quantified such as hub-cities and experience. Nothing about the NHL playoffs this year is conventional, and I’m guessing that the same will go for the teams advancing to the first round. The Wild also had a bad start to this year, so as of late they had better numbers than their full-season suggested. Despite this, I am still going with the Canucks on this one. They simply have too many young players that can produce, and based on how long this team has been coming together, I think they will come out of the break flying. With the age of the Wild, they may not physically be able to keep up, no matter how badly they want to advance to the playoffs.
