An Analysis of Rumored Manchester United Target Jhon Duran
“Who the hell is Jhon Duran?”
That’s the question many Manchester United fans have been muttering to themselves as they scroll down their Twitter feed. “We should be after Victor Oshimhen if we buy a striker,” they grumble.
It’s a fair point. Manchester United are dying for a number nine. Oshimhen is performing well for Napoli and has top quality European experience, something Duran does not.
But neither did Oshimhen’s teammate Kim Min-jae, who has arguably been Serie A’s most dominant center back this season. Kim’s quick transition at Napoli brings up an important question. Should scouts really take European experience over actual footballing attributes and abilities?
Keeping that in mind, let’s get back to the man in question.
So who IS Jhon Duran?
Jhon Duran is an 18 year old Colombian striker for the Chicago Fire in the MLS. Duran is a behemoth for his age, standing at 185 cm (6’1”) and barrel chested.
Born in Medellin of Pablo Escobar fame, he played in the renown youth academy of Envigado FC. Notable Colombian internationals like James Rodriguez and Freddy Guarin were also graduates of the same youth system.
While Duran is largely an unknown for most Manchester United fans, he has been on the radar of many scouts for a long time. In 2020, he even made the list of The Guardian’s “60 of the best talents in world football” alongside players like Florian Wirtz. And in January of this year, he became the youngest international signing in MLS history at 17.
Chicago Fire coach Ezra Hendrickson had this to say about Duran:
“He is a player that, once he gets it all together, he can be a really, really special player. He has all the tools.”
Physical Profile/Discipline
Tall, physical, quick, and tough, Duran fits the physical profile of a future number nine. For a teenager he is incredibly strong, able to shield the ball from defenders ten years his senior. Because of his raw power, defenders often have to resort to fouling him. He’s no Akinfenwa, but it works.
Duran has suffered 49 fouls in 1363 minutes of play. That means he draws a foul about every 28 minutes, or about 3.2 fouls per game. That’s similar to Neymar, who has been fouled 3.4 times per game in Ligue 1 so far this season.
Then again, we have to remember that Duran is doing this against MLS level defenders (no offense, MLS fans). I couldn’t help but notice some shocking moments of defending in his highlight clips on YouTube.
Duran is still growing into his body, so he can be clumsy at times. While he did draw many fouls, he also gave as many away with 39. And as you can see by the six yellow cards and one red card he has already received this season, he can be a little overzealous and naive.
But the ability to handle the physicality of the EPL is definitely there.
According to the MLS Chicago Fire website, he is winning 94.1% of his headers and 85.4% of his duels.
If those aren’t typos, those are some frankly ridiculous numbers especially for a teenager.
Technique
However, Jhon Duran isn’t just about brute power. There is also some fluidity to his game, as he likes to power past defenders using a combination of strength, pace and quick feet. Similar to Martial and Rashford, Duran can play on both the wing and at the number nine.
But because of his aerial ability and strength, Duran is better equipped to handle the physical demands than Martial or Rashford are. In terms of technical skills, he isn’t quite at their level yet. It is not for lack of trying, but his ball control and dribbling need more refining. He’s not a consistently good passer yet, but there are some interesting moments.
Take a look at this clip from YouTube user “WIK7” below.
Duran spots the run early, and releases a perfectly weighted pass around the last defender. It shows his ability to read the game and his confidence to try a through ball even with a 6 v 3 disadvantage.
Manchester United fans will not like to hear this, but Duran is currently a very one-footed player. “Oh, great. Just what we need,” I can already hear you all mutter sarcastically under your breath. Yes, unfortunately Duran’s right foot is as good as a pirate’s peg leg at the moment.
As a left footed number nine, many Manchester United fans will instantly liken him to Romelu Lukaku (is that good or bad?). And honestly, the comparison isn’t so bad. They are similarly built, although Duran is listed at 185 cm while Lukaku was around 190 cm at 18. While Lukaku was the better finisher, Jhon looks more energetic and explosive than Lukaku did at the same age. I can also see Duran becoming more of a dynamic forward in terms of being a ball carrier than Lukaku ever was.
Finishing
Manchester United need a number nine who can hold up play and bring others into play. That could be Duran, but a number nine also needs to know how to finish chances.
Duran has 8 goals in the MLS this season, which is about 170 minutes per goal. He has 24/60 shots on target, which is good for about 40%. This shows that Duran can be accurate in front of goal. Among Manchester United players with at least 10 shots, Antony is the most accurate with 9/20 (45%). The lowest is Fred’s 23.1%, with 3 shots on target out of 13 shots taken.
He’s a threat on set pieces with two headed goals to his name, and likes to finish chances in the box with his favored left foot. But he’s the kind of forward that needs good service to score goals. He scored a brace in 3 games and had a goal in each of two other games. That means in 22 other games, he was held scoreless. Though to be fair, he began the season as a sporadic starter.
That being said, Duran still needs at least another season to develop his finishing.
As much as it pains me to admit, Erling Haaland may have set the bar incredibly high for center forwards. Unfair or not, now every scout wants to find their own Haaland.
Overall Thoughts:
That being said, Duran is not a bad prospect. He’s only 18 and still needs time to develop.
To me, Duran is very raw right now. The positives are that he has exciting physical attributes and plays with a lot of energy. But he still lacks end product and really needs to work on his right foot (zero right footed goals) and his balance. He seems to fall over on a lot of shots and passes.
Personally, I hope he doesn’t get too tall. 6’1” (185 cm) is more than enough height for an effective number nine. Right now, he’s just a smidge taller than 184 cm tall Edinson Cavani. The taller you get the harder it is to maintain your body control and fluidity. And Duran needs to work on more control, not less. 194 cm tall Haaland and 195 cm tall Zlatan are anomalies in world football.
So, is Duran ready for United? Probably not. At least, not at this moment.
Another thing to keep in mind is that United already have too many one-footed players. For instance, Duran and Antony will likely occupy each other’s space too much because they both love to cut in with their left foot.
Even so, there’s always a chance that Erik ten Hag will roll the dice on a talented prospect like Duran. He would be a much cheaper option than someone like Oshimhen. Duran would also give United a different, physical option at the point of attack.
So who knows?
After all, ten Hag did help develop Antony and Lisandro Martinez into stars at Ajax.
Maybe he can find a diamond in the rough with Duran.
Sources:
https://www.chicagofirefc.com/players/jhon-duran-x0341/
https://www.mlssoccer.com/players/jhon-duran/stats
Wikimedia Commons
WIK7. “Jhon Duran — Welcome to Manchester United? 2022 — Best Skills & Goals | HD.”YouTube, 24 October 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgZrQDRkJ_Y.
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