Are domestic strikers in EPL faring better than international strikers? Do we see it as a trend?
Let’s play a little game to start off — Can you spot a pattern here in these 3 series?
1. Vardy, Aubameyang, Kane, Ings
2. Lewandowski, Werner, Sancho, Weghorst
3. Messi, Benzema, Aspas, Suarez
Let me give you a little hint — these are strikers who have been performing consistently over the past 3 seasons in the top 3 football leagues in the world. Still not getting it? Ok. Can you see how English Premier League (EPL) has 3 out of their top 4 strikers as local English lads whereas the other leagues (Bundesliga and La Liga respectively) have international forwards topping their charts?
This article talks about this intriguing observation in-depth and aims to bring to light the emerging trend of the rise of domestic forwards in EPL which has hitherto seen limited coverage by experts.
Out of the top five European leagues, I have been following EPL closely over the last 10+ years and in particular, have noticed an interesting trend in the last 3–4 seasons in terms of an increased share of goals scored by domestic forwards in EPL which is not witnessed in other leagues. While EPL is the most reliant on foreign players out of the top European leagues (a recent study showed that ~70% of players are international in EPL accounting for 60%+ of playing time, much higher than its rival leagues), domestic forwards still outshine their international counterparts by a mile in this regard!
The record of English strikers has been phenomenal with the likes of Kane, Sterling, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin, and Danny Ings stepping up and topping the scoring charts on a consistent basis. The 2017–18 season saw English forwards score 140 goals which comprised ~40% of the total number of goals scored by all the strikers in the league. The record of the following seasons improved with 148 goals in the 2018–19 season which formed ~42% of total goals and 151 goals in 2019–20 which further improved to ~47% of total goals. The current season has already witnessed a mammoth 84 goals from English forwards which forms a whopping ~62% of the total tally!
Therefore, English strikers have comprehensively refuted the claims made by leading pundits of them being merely one-season-wonders. Even though the prestigious Golden Boot award winner has not been an English striker consistently, the number of goals contributed by English strikers has been staggering on a regular basis. These players have trained hard at their academies, utilized the youth setup provided by clubs, and waited for the right opportunities to flourish and showcase their talent to the world.
However, looking at other top European Leagues such as Bundesliga, La Liga, and Serie A this trend is not seen. Most of the goals are scored by international forwards and they have consistently outshone their domestic counterparts. E.g. last season in Bundesliga and La Liga, out of the top 4 goal scorers, there was only one domestic striker. The share of goals contributed by domestic strikers has been very low over the past few seasons and players like Suarez, Lewandowski, Ronaldo, and Neymar who have arrived from different leagues and countries, have been able to conquer their respective leagues.
In the past four seasons, apart from EPL, Serie A is the only top European League where the Golden Boot has been won by a domestic striker (Insigne-2018–19). Otherwise, it has been international strikers making the headlines. This indicates that there is a heavy reliance on foreign talent in other leagues as domestic talent doesn’t prove to be sufficient to win matches for their teams.
What, you may think, are the reasons leading to this phenomenon? While unfortunately there are no clear theories or perfectly ascribable explanations, I have tried to connect different data points based on my observations to draw the following 3 inferences, which are potentially the 3 leading contributing factors.
· English Premier League’s “Homegrown Player Rule”: It’s an initiative to allow for more domestic players to be developed from an early age in the hope of nurturing more homegrown talent in EPL. The rule states that each club must have at least 8 homegrown players in its squad, which clearly shows how integral domestic players are to a team’s success.
· Rosenthal effect: Domestic players perform well in England because England has done a good job of retaining them, and vice-versa (unlike other leagues). EPL is unarguably the most competitive and ruthless football league in the world. Everyone wants a piece of that action. The chance of playing alongside the crème-de-la-crème, the enticing big money, and the temptation of achieving stardom status are enough of bait to lure international talent away from their domestic leagues to EPL at some point in their career. And hence domestic talent is not nurtured the same way as it perhaps is in England. Imagine a whole generation of starry-eyed kids growing up aspiring not for glory in their own country but with the dream of playing in EPL one day!
· Stronger mid-table teams: In EPL, even the mid-table teams have prolific strikers who score a fair amount of goals every season, which is not the case with other leagues. For example, players like Ings and Vardy, who belong to mid-table clubs like Southampton and Leicester, are always amongst the top 3–4 strikers in the league, whereas in other leagues, the top strikers are from the top 2–3 teams only (Lewandowski of Bayern, Messi of Barcelona, Neymar of PSG, Ronaldo of Juventus). Also, the relative points difference between the 1st and 10th placed team in EPL is just 7 points this season whereas in other leagues the average is 15 points. This clearly tells us how fiercely competitive EPL is, with upsets happening every other game week!
Going forward, I expect this trend to continue and perhaps become even more significant. With more and more English players coming through the academy and managers feeling encouraged to field them, it’s only a matter of time when we would start seeing a team lined with 6–7 domestic players in a match. Looking at the trend of transfers over the last 5–6 years, the expected movement of talent between teams should contribute to this trend getting stronger in coming years — there are always transfer talks about top international strikers joining EPL (Werner to Chelsea, Aubameyang to Arsenal, rumours about Messi joining Man City), however, typically there are negligible rumours about English players moving out of EPL (although at what point these 2 forces balance each other out is debatable!).
Even though the future of English Football seems bright and English players are ready to dominate world football, I can’t help but wonder why England as a national team, does not perform well or hasn’t been able to win any major trophies considering the squad depth and quality it has at its disposal! Perhaps 2021 has a different story to tell, with possibly the best English forwards for a generation playing a big role as the Brits try to bring it home. Southgate’s predecessors must be looking on in envy.
There are signs that things are changing.
