Are you seeing a different Premier league this season? Has covid-19 changed the game?

Goal fests? More upsets? No home advantage? This Premier League season, expect the unexpected!

The Premier League 2020–21 season could produce truly surprising results as unique circumstances are affecting teams, and four-game weeks into the season, EPL fans haven’t been left disappointed. More upsets, more goals, fewer home wins- it seems all these things are in the offering and there is enough evidence already to expect the unexpected.

With just four and a half years on from Leicester’s remarkable success, there’s a feeling that something similar could unfold this season and that is reaffirmed by the fact that in the early weeks of the season, we have seen some extraordinary results and stats.

For football leagues all over the world to continue and ensure the safety of players, staff, and public, the game has undergone many changes amid the COVID-19 pandemic — from playing behind closed doors, less time between fixtures, to players contracting the virus and more all of which are supposedly having an impact on the field.

I have been an avid football fan for the last 10+ years and have been following the English Premier League over the past few years. As the Premier League has been arguably the best football league, followers have been left bamboozled over the astonishing results and stats this league has witnessed and with the COVID-19 pandemic taking over the world, we have seen some drastic change in numbers. Therefore, for my interest, I have been closely tracking the game and following what the pundits have to say and have attempted to dissect the mayhem into discernible observations.

Observation#1

It’s a Goal fest out there!

So far we have seen 144 goals over the past 4 game weeks and 3.6 has been the average goals scored per match, which is already a huge jump from last season’s average of 2.6. Also, to add to the excitement, we haven’t seen 0–0 result in the 40 matches played so far! This increase in the number of goals being scored could be attributed to three major factors-empty stadiums, a shorter off — season and sub-par team quality. With stadiums filled with no fans, players tend to feel less pressure and attempt more shots, and are able to play their game freely and express themselves. This is reaffirmed by the offside stats, which show players are being caught offside more often than last season, and therefore it can be inferred that players are getting into attacking positions frequently. Also, with fans not booing or making the players nervous, we have seen a higher penalty conversion rate.

Secondly, with the Coronavirus pandemic taking away most of the time and shaking up the football calendar, there was a negligible pre-season for the players. Because of this abnormally short off-season, it is likely that the players didn’t get sufficient time to rest and recoup, especially after recently having gone through the intense game period of the restart after the halt. This fatigue can potentially carry through to the rest of the season, resulting in tired bodies and tired minds — thereby leading to more mistakes — and more goals.

The third reason could be the low quality of teams which have come up this season namely- West Brom, Leeds, and Fulham. These three teams have conceded 32 goals so far which is almost 1/4th of the total count. West Brom’s manager Slaven Bilic, is attack-minded who always encourages his players to outscore the opposition ultimately compromising on its defense. Similarly, the high flying Leeds United, have fascinating forwards who have scored in every match so far thereby shifting the focus of the whole team into attacking.

Observation #2

Setup for upsets

Aston Villa’s 7–2 thrashing of Liverpool at home and Spurs beating Manchester United by 6–1 have truly been the highlights of the season so far. Without the usual six-week period of intensive fitness work (pre-season) this season, players are vulnerable to fatigue and due to the tight schedule of matches, players are required to play every few days and put in their best performance. Fatigue can lead to mistakes, it can lead to injuries, it can lead to players not playing as per the manager’s formation and tactics. Also, the recovery time has reduced between matches due to big teams participating in various competitions such as Champions League, Europa, Carabao which is forcing clubs to rotate players more often.

Also, clubs such as Chelsea, Everton, Arsenal have bolstered their ranks with exciting wingers and strikers, the overall attacking quality of the Premier League has improved and have made a huge contribution for their respective teams at the further end of the pitch. Therefore, mid-table clubs are taking huge strides towards catching up with the top teams and pushing them hard.

To boot, key players of teams have been contracting the virus which has prevented them from playing with over 20 players contracting Covid-19 since the pandemic began. This has impacted teams in fielding their best eleven and therefore the performance levels have gone down considerably.

Observation #3

Home not so sweet home

It has been observed that teams are winning more away matches than home matches. 1.275 is the average points per home match so far whereas 1.5 has been the average points per away match. This observation can also be attributed to empty stadiums and the absence of fans and their cheering. The fixtures are not really feeling like away matches and it’s inviting visiting teams to play more attacking football as they have less pressure to win the match.

The contrasting impact of playing behind closed doors could be the dropping intensity levels of players and as per the stats, we can decipher that the number of tackles per match has decreased in comparison to the last season. Historically as we have seen, the influence of the crowd is massive and it encourages players to go for tackles and commit fouls. But this season, the absence of crowd has completely washed-off that influence and fewer tackles could be one of the reasons home teams are conceding more.

All that we have seen in the first 4 game weeks have been truly baffling and intriguing, but the real question is — would this continue?

As players get accustomed to the new normal of the football world and the changed schedule, would they get up to speed and start firing on all cylinders? Would teams like Liverpool and Man City bounce back and reclaim their top spots or would we see an unpredictable winner?

Or will the new found confidence of mid-table clubs like Everton, Leicester, Spurs build on early season upsets and their star transfers and make this campaign all the more interesting and spectacular?

All these questions would be answered as we progress through the season. But just after 4 weeks of breath-taking football, one can truly say that the 2020–21 season would be an intriguing watch and could be one of the best, most competitive, most dramatic, most unexpected season ever witnessed in the history of not just English Football, but world football.