Breaking Down NBA Rotations Post Free Agency
Now that the dust has (mostly) settled following what has been a wild summer of player movement, let’s take a look at what the rotations could potentially look like for some of the contenders for this upcoming NBA season.
What a whirlwind the first few days (hours?) of free agency were. Now that the majority of the rosters have been filled out, I wanted to take some time to actually sit back and look at the collection of players on each team. I feel like there was barely time to process each of the major moves, much less the smaller transactions on the fringes that will really make or break some of the top contenders for the NBA title. In a season that looks to be wide open for the first time in over a decade, role players could be more important than ever in determining the champion.
So, with that in mind, I placed an emphasis on potential playoff performance and fit when analyzing these rosters. Have these guys played and performed well in big games before? Can they stay on the court during crunch time of an important game or series? Do they match up well against multiple types of players and styles of play? Can you trust them when you’re “in the trenches” so to speak of a seven-game war of attrition with a battle-tested team?
I made a guess at what the 11-12 man rotations would look like and grouped the players into three categories: ball handlers, wings, and bigs. I may be a little off on some of the categorization, but this is more of a look at how these groups of players stack up together.
Los Angeles Clippers
Ball Handlers: Patrick Beverly, Lou Williams
Wings: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Landry Shamet, Moe Harkless, Rodney McGruder, Jerome Robinson
Bigs: Montrezl Harrell, Ivica Zubac, JaMychal Green, Mfiondu Kabengele
The Clippers enter the season as the prohibitive favorites in the eyes of many smart NBA people. Adding the reigning Finals MVP and the third-place MVP finisher will do that. They’re not the juggernaut, overwhelming favorite that the Hampton’s Five Warriors and the Heatles were, but they have seemed to establish themselves as the frontrunner for now, and a big part of that is their depth.
For a team that just signed one max player and traded for another one, they have a surprising amount of depth, especially on the wings. Kawhi’s load management strategy worked perfectly last season. Is that going to be how he’s handled in the regular season going forward? He was dragging that leg around a lot in the playoffs (which makes his dominant run even more impressive). Paul George is coming off of multiple surgeries. Do these two rest up during the regular season knowing that the playoff gauntlet is coming?
With all these varied types of wings and ball handlers in tow (a mini Draymond in Beverly, a young shooter in Shamet, a microwave bench scorer in Williams, a switchy athlete in Harkless, etc.) there isn’t nearly as much pressure for these two to carry the entire offensive (and defensive) load.
And speaking of defense, as many have mentioned, unleashing Kawhi, PG, and Beverly on opposing guards is going to be Jordan and Pippen roaming the perimeter levels of intimidating.
The bigs could use a dependable rim protector, but Harrell is going to work wonders doing the dirty work and dunking on everything in sight in the paint. Harrell, Beverly, and Williams are the perfect type of complementary players you want to put around Kawhi and PG to make a run at the title: aware of (and excel at) their role, do the little things, always play hard.
Los Angeles Lakers
Ball Handlers: Rajon Rondo, Quinn Cook
Wings: LeBron James, Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Avery Bradley, Troy Daniels, Jared Dudley
Bigs: Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, JaVale McGee
With the little brother somehow, finally stealing the big brother’s thunder in Hollywood this summer, the Lakers enter the season as a team with wildly varying potential end games.
The tantalizing team-up of LeBron and AD could be terrifying to the rest of the league. They seemingly fit perfectly together. But do they have enough help surrounding them? After giving up a king (James)’s ransom in the trade for AD, the cupboards were looking a little bare. And some of the run-it-back signings were uninspired. But Danny Green and Troy Daniels were the exact type of players they needed to add, especially to help shore up the lack of shooting. Bradley and KCP theoretically follow Green as strong perimeter defenders, but they haven’t shown that prowess in a few seasons.
Kuzma is good, maybe a little overrated, but he plays hard and will do things they need him to do. Cousins is the real wild card. At times, he looked like his old self with the Warriors. Other times, he barely looked playable. If he can be 80 percent of his old self in the playoffs, that could be huge for the Lakers.
Philadelphia 76ers
Ball Handlers: Ben Simmons….Shake Milton?
Wings: Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson, Mike Scott, James Ennis, Matisse Thybulle, Zhaire Smith
Bigs: Joel Embiid, Al Horford, Kyle O’Quinn, Jonah Bolden
A Simmons-Richardson-Harris-Horford-Embiid starting lineup is arguably the best five-man group in the league. Although they also had that last season with Redick and Butler instead of Richardson and Horford. They will sorely miss JJ’s shooting and Jimmy’s playmaking, but Richardson and Horford should fit in really well with the other three. Horford especially is a wizard at making the most of any situation he’s in.
The depth could be better, especially at point guard where Shake Milton is the only viable option after losing T.J. McConnell, and at center where even the president of the Kyle O’Quinn fan club (me) is worried about that with Embiid’s conditioning and health.
Thybulle and Smith becoming contributors and soaking up some of those Scott and Ennis minutes would be big.
Milwaukee Bucks
Ball Handlers: George Hill, Eric Bledsoe
Wings: Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Sterling Brown, D.J. Wilson, Donte DiVincenzo, Wesley Matthews
Bigs: Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Ersan Illyasova
Giannis: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Bucks mostly ran it back other than adding big man depth and official captain of twin/mascot hijinks Robin Lopez and sturdy wing Wesley Matthews. The biggest development was losing Malcolm Brogdon to the Pacers. The Bucks were afraid to dip into the luxury tax, having already signed Eric Bledsoe, and they had to let go of someone who was their most consistent playoff performer after Giannis. If the Bucks want to keep the future (current?) Best Player in the League, then keeping people like Brogdon, who helped alleviate Giannis’ ball handling duties, opened up the lane with his shooting, and held his own on defense, is a must.
The wing seems to be in good shape. I’m excited to see Brown and Wilson back in the rotation. They looked good there during the regular season and early in the playoffs before mysteriously vanishing. It’s also good that Brook Lopez is back. He fits perfectly into the system they’ve designed around Giannis. His shooting gives Giannis more room in the paint and his rim-protection allows Giannis to roam as a free safety on defense.
Hill is a steadying, playoff-tested factor at point and Bledsoe looked great last year…in the regular season. If he combusts again in the playoffs, Middleton will have to up his play one more level after upping his game up significantly in recent seasons.
Houston Rockets
Ball Handlers: James Harden, Russell Westbrook (!)
Wings: P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, Gerald Green, Danuel House, Austin Rivers, Iman Shumpert
Bigs: Clint Capela, Tyson Chandler, Kenneth Faried, Nene
The team that came the closest to dethroning the Warriors out west has decided to go for broke (as Daryl Morey usually does) instead of running it back. Harden and Westbrook are reunited, two MVPs and zero championships later. Westbrook is one of my favorite players to watch. Harden has become one of my least favorite major stars to watch. But I can’t wait to watch them try this experiment out.
Capela, Tucker, and Gordon will continue to make up one of the league’s strongest starting fives. And with the Hampton’s Five out of commission, maybe Capela can stay on the floor in crunch time more often (although I love any version of the Tuckwagon lineup.
Chandler was a great addition to this crew, and I still believe in Faried as a potential playoff contributor in this system. The wing depth isn’t great, but Green seems to always provide a spark off the bench at some point in a playoff series, Shumpert and Rivers are solid defenders, and House showed flashes of usefulness.
Golden State Warriors
Ball Handlers: Steph Curry, D’Angelo Russell
Wings: Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, Jacob Evans, Alfonzo McKinnie, Jonas Jerebko, Jordan Poole
Bigs: Kevon Looney, Willie Cauley-Stein, Andrew Bogut (?)
Yeesh, that really doesn’t look great when typed out like that. But, I don’t want to be the one to count out the Warriors. Steph, Draymond, and a healthy Klay could make a run in the playoffs. Add in Looney, who really proved himself in the playoffs, and Russell or whoever he’s traded for and that’s a formidable lineup…with little-to-no depth. Maybe Burks, Evans, Poole, or McKinnie really breaks out as the second wing? And Cauley-Stein could be a valuable contributor on a playoff team. The Warriors dynasty might be dead, but there’s some fight left in the longtime trio. KD will obviously be missed, but it’s the absence of Iguodala and to a lesser extent Livingston that really signifies the end of an era.
Boston Celtics
Ball Handlers: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart
Wings: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Semi Ojeleye, Romeo Langford, Grant Williams
Bigs: Enes Kanter, Daniel Theis, Robert Williams
What a wild ride the Celtics have been on these past few seasons. From frisky underdogs to a team with the world at their hands with present and future paths to a title to last season’s mess.
Now, in a post Kyrie and Horford world, Brad Stevens will have his work cut out for him to get the Celtics to the Finals. Not that this isn’t a talented roster. Kemba is a great Kyrie replacement and chemistry-wise will be better for the young guys on the roster. Losing Horford hurts any team looking to win games, but this team is still young and talented.
Tatum and Brown’s steps back last season were a little overblown, partially because the hype had become too much after their 2018 playoff run without Kyrie and Hayward. Those two are going to be really good going forward, and Tatum has the chance to be special on offense.
Smart, like Horford, is simply useful for contending basketball teams. He makes winning plays and is perhaps the best defender at guard in the league. You deal with the subpar shooting because he makes a couple of game-changing plays every time out. In that regard, he’s more mini Draymond than Pat Bev since Draymond’s shot hasn’t been falling recently.
This team’s contention status rests on Hayward’s shoulders. If the Celtics can get something close to pre-injury Hayward, then the Bucks and Sixers will need to be on notice in the East. If not, Ojeleye and the rookies Langford and Williams will really need to step up.
The bigs are also an issue. Kanter could play in the playoffs, but he’s still rough on defense and Theis isn’t a full-time answer. Maybe Robert Williams lives up to his potential as the rim protector they need. There may be a lot of crunch time small ball in Boston’s future.
Denver Nuggets
Ball Handlers: Jamal Murray, Monte Morris
Wings: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Malik Beasley, Jerami Grant, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter
Bigs: Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, Mason Plumlee, Juan Hernangomez
The Nuggets may not have made the western finals in the wide open side of the bracket last postseason, but I still came away impressed with their performance. Jokic stepped his game up another level. He’s a bonafide MVP candidate. Murray, Harris, and Barton make for a strong trio of wings/guards and Millsap is another “winning” type player. The second banana situation is worse than every other team on this list, but the depth helps make up for it.
Morris was a great find last season. He proved himself to be one of the league’s best backup point guards. Grant was one of the underrated signings of the summer. At times, he was the third best player on OKC last season. Beasley, Hernangomez, and Craig showed flashes. And if the people in the know actually do know, Porter is a future star if he can ever find the court. Porter showing up in a big way could propel the Nuggets up a level on the contenders ladder.
Utah Jazz
Ball Handlers: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Emmanuel Mudiay
Wings: Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jeff Green, Dante Exum, Royce O’Neale
Bigs: Rudy Gobert, Ed Davis
The team that started off the wild summer with the trade for Mike Conley are the only team on here to only have 10 players listed. I couldn’t figure out who that 11th or 12th guy might be, even though there’s several intriguing candidates. Realistically, it’s probably a buyout guy. Even more realistically, it probably doesn’t matter come playoff time since rotations get trimmed down in the most important games.
I’m not quite as high on the Jazz as NBA Twitter is, but they made some great additions who fit right alongside Gobert, Mitchell, and Ingles. Conley takes some ball-handling pressure off Mitchell, Bogdanovic opens up the spacing more, Davis gets the job done as a backup big, and you know Jeff Green will have a playoff game where he makes us believe in him all over again.
Royce O’Neale was an impressive out-of-nowhere rotational find last season, and good thing too, because I’ve just about given up on both Mudiay and to a lesser extent Exum.
Personally, I feel like there’s a dropoff after the top nine (!) title contenders and the rest of the pack. I may follow this article up with a look at that next tier of teams: Portland (who are easily the next team in line), Toronto, Brooklyn (until KD returns), Indiana, San Antonio, OKC (I weirdly like this roster), Miami, etc. or a look at the most intriguing young cores: New Orleans, Memphis, Dallas, Chicago, Sacramento, etc.
