Early Predictions for the 2020 MLB Season
As the great Rogers Hornsby once said, “People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.” Amidst the Super Bowl madness, I have no shame in admitting I’m one of those who eagerly await baseball season in any capacity. Teams are loading up equipment trucks, en route to Florida or Arizona. Meanwhile, I’m looking forward to this time of the year by cooking up some predictions.
This MLB offseason has been eventful (thankfully so). The Houston Astros got exposed for their illegal sign-stealing during the 2017 World Series that shook up management and questioned the legitimacy of the entire team. Impactful free agent signings (Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Anthony Rendon) kept the baseball buzz going. Potential trade targets like Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado and Francisco Lindor could be on the move before the season time of year starts. There’s no safe bet, but it’s never too early to place some bets.
1. The Baltimore Orioles won’t be the worst team in the MLB
Instead, they’ll win the World Series this year!
Kidding.
The Orioles have been the laughingstock of baseball for the past few years, and with barely any prospects and offseason acquisitions, the next few years won’t be kind to Baltimore. Prospectively, Adley Rutschman is their latest №1 overall pick and is showing heaps of promise; too bad he gets to play for the Orioles.
The Orioles won’t be the only squad that’ll lose over 100 games this season, but franchises like the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners are in the same position as the Orioles, possibly worse.
2. The Yankees won’t win the World Series this year
Gerrit Cole signing a 9 year, $324 million contract over the winter won the “Big Offseason Switch” sweepstakes of 2019. Well, unless Mookie Betts goes somewhere soon. On paper, the 2020 Yankees are the most talented ball club in the MLB. Pitching — starting and the bullpen — shouldn’t be an issue, but last year’s Yankees club had an inconsistent offense and a mediocre defense, yet still won 103 games. Star outfielder Aaron Judge will return this season, hoping to bounce back from a sophomore slump. Vegas bets favor the Yankees to win the World Series, but teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves have the better offenses that could pose a legitimate threat to the Yankees rotation apart from Cole come October.
3. The Astros won’t win their division this year
A bold prediction would be that this controversial baseball team will miss the playoffs entirely. Despite blatant cheating and their star players dismissing the scandal entirely, this Astros staff still boasts the talents of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman, on top of Justin Verlander leading the rotation. Bringing in Dusty Baker was a smart, short-term choice that’ll keep the Astros elite. However, the Angels also hired Joe Maddon as their manager and gained 3B Anthony Rendon, fresh off a World Series championship with the Washington Nationals. A team with Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and plenty of other young talents could make a playoff contention. Never rule out the Oakland Athletics, who won 97 games in 2019 and have Matt Chapman, a breakout star in the making. A wild card spot is feasible for the Astros, but there’s a little more competition for the AL West than they think.
4. The new rules for 2020 will be a good idea after all
The biggest rule change to come into this season is that all pitchers must face at least 3 batters. That’s right, no more creative lefty-lefty matchups for one guy! Naturally, players and managers hate this rule because it takes away an element of strategy from them. The slight exception to this rule is that a manager can use a relief pitcher to set up the end of a half-inning, but the average relief pitcher looks to pitch to over 3 batters; he can go out and pitch for an inning or two, or have a closer pitch part of the 8th and the 9th inning. Supposedly, the rule change is to speed up the game, but statistics show that the move only saves a minute or two. In short, relief pitchers just need to do their job and strike hitters out.
This year, ball clubs will expand their roster from 25 to 26, and in September, from 40 men to only 28. It’s not a massive change. Neither is the 15-day injury reserve rule compared to 10 days for pitchers only. The other significant change is the entry of the “two-way player” as a roster spot. The most famous two-way player in baseball is Shohei Ohtani, and more like him will probably shape the game in the feature. But, the 2019 season saw an increase in position players pitching in relief, and teams will experiment more with those players. This rule just puts it into existence.
5. The Red Sox will start their decline this year, even as a playoff team
It wouldn’t be the first New England squad people expect to do poorly after we assume a star player to leave.
Trade talks between Mookie Betts and the Dodgers seem to come into fruition. Regardless, the Red Sox have to plan a future without their MVP right fielder. Last year, the team finished with 84 wins, a disappointment from their 108 win season in 2018 that enabled a World Series victory. There’s not a manager on this Red Sox club for the moment, thanks to former manager Alex Cora’s termination from the Red Sox for his role in the Astros cheating scandal. It’s hard to believe that a new leader that’ll come so close to Spring Training will provide confidence to lead a flawed Red Sox team to any World Series chances.
The Red Sox offense is good. Not great, but good. JD Martinez would be the next best player after Betts. Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers are standouts on defense that show promise. The big disappointment is Andrew Benintendi, and the rest of the offense follows suit.
The pitching relies on two guys: Chris Sale and David Price. Sale had a disappointing year on his standards, while Price continues to be serviceable (still can’t beat the Yankees with him pitching, though). The bullpen has been the Achille’s heel for this franchise the past two seasons, and the lack of big free-agent signings from the Red Sox doesn’t help this case.
The alarming issue is the lack of talented players in the Red Sox minor league system. Only one player, Triston Casas, ranked in the Top 100 Prospects list for 2020. They traded away plenty of future talent from the farm system, depleting chances of homegrown players to shape the future. The Red Sox have a huge payroll with aging stars and not enough young talent to replace them. It’ll get ugly.
Editor’s note: Mookie Betts and David Price were traded to the Dodgers less than 24 hours after this article was published. My opinion on the Red Sox this season still stands.
