NFL Power Rankings: Week 1, 2019

Welcome back, NFL.

For me, at least, NFL offseasons are pretty interesting. Once the Super Bowl concludes, a gaping hole opens up in my schedule, bringing both good and bad.

Good: my Sundays are completely free.

Bad: what the heck am I supposed to do on Sundays now?

This void is temporarily filled with all the hype surrounding the combine, draft, and free agency. And then, once we head deeper into the NBA postseason and the subsequent summer months, football just kind of disappears. The rumor mills slow down, and I become acclimatized to the absence of a sport which consumes a hefty portion of my life for nearly a year.

So much so that the start of a new season comes almost as a shock.

“Oh, right. It’s football season!”

Nevertheless, I like many of you, have put in time watching the preseason, cramming for fantasy football drafts, and getting the refresher on all the offseason transactions. By next week, we’ll already be in full swing.

Football is not a sport that takes very long to get back into. It prefers to consume your existence with a sudden onslaught. College football last week, NFL this week.

Week 1 also begins signifies the beginning of my weekly power rankings. I’ve decided to return to the old-fashioned articles after my weekly Facebook Live show last year. This means you can expect my power rankings on Wednesdays and my game picks on Thursdays.

As always for Week 1s, take the opening rankings and everything you read here with a grain of salt. Things are going to change a ton for the first month or so as we try to get a grasp of who these teams actually are in the early goings of their seasons.

This means you shouldn’t be surprised to see teams move even 10 spots in next week’s list. That’s not an overreaction, either. It’s just my best attempt to make sense of the tenuous information we have in September.

Alright. That’s enough for introductions. If you want your favorite team higher on the list, the best way to make that happen is for them to win games, and do so convincingly.

Got it? Good. Let’s get this show on the road.

32. Miami Dolphins

Poor Josh Rosen. The second-year quarterback’s brief stint in Arizona ended after the Cardinals took another QB with the first pick in this year’s draft — Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray. Rosen was then shipped to Miami, a move from the NFC’s worst team to the AFC’s worst.

But even there, Rosen couldn’t win the starting job, losing out to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Hey, at least Miami has beaches to compliment the heat, unlike one Grand Canyon State.

The Dolphins appear to be in full-tank mode. However, Fitzpatrick is such an erratic firecracker that he’s likely to go off for a few heroic 400-yard performances.

It’ll be a heck of a challenge for first-year head coach Brian Flores, who has already lost a player to an amputation, had Kenny Stills call out the team’s owner, and seen the team threaten a revolt if Laremy Tunsil was traded.

Wait — they traded Stills AND Tunsil to the Texans? REVOLT!

31. Arizona Cardinals

And the great Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray experiment begins. The 40-year old former Texas Tech head coach is an offensive genius who gets to work with a Heisman-winning quarterback who carved up Kingsbury’s Texas Tech for 460 total yards and four touchdowns in a 51–46 Oklahoma win a year ago.

Honestly, par for the course for both schools.

Look, it’ll be fun to see Murray run around this season, but it remains to be seen if Kingsbury’s talents with translate to the NFL. Even if they do, the Cardinals’ defense should be a mess. At worst, the whole team will be one.

30. Cincinnati Bengals

After 16 seasons, seven playoff appearances, yet no postseason victories, the Marvin Lewis era is FINALLY over in Cincinnati. Zac Taylor gets the coaching gig, as part of the swarm for anyone who has any relationship with Sean McVay.

Here’s the deal. This is a team batting clear fourth in the AFC North, already with a significant list of injuries, headlined by A.J. Green, who remains in a walking boot and will likely miss several games.

At least they won’t have the opportunity to lose a playoff game this year.

29. Washington Redskins

Ah, yes — Case Keenum — a quarterback just good enough to keep getting starting gigs, but never good enough to stick. Now with Washington, his fifth team since making his Texans debut in 2013, the former Houston gunslinger will look to make the most of the limited pieces around him.

With one of the league’s lowest over-under win totals at six, Vegas isn’t expecting any miracles. Neither am I. Although, they do typically find a way to stay .500, so who knows.

28. Oakland Raiders

Remember how excited we all were to see Jon Gruden for a whole season of Hard Knocks? Remember how quickly that faded once we saw the on-camera product?

All excitement about the Raiders seems to have been virtually thrown out the window by this point, replaced by the unanimous mockery of Antonio Brown’s helmet saga and his astonishing ability to get frostbite in L.A. during the summer from going through cryotherapy without the appropriate footwear.

Maybe if the Raiders keep making us laugh, it’ll excuse the joke that is about to become their 2019 season.

27. New York Giants

Alright, my team. The Giants would love to give Eli Manning a successful swan song in 2019 before inevitably passing on the torch to rookie Daniel Jones. The team has already announced Manning will start until the team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but you have to wonder if the team would be better off giving Jones the reps in what appears to be a very similar season to last year.

The gameplan for New York — especially in the first four weeks, due to Golden Tate’s suspension, is simply give the ball to Saquon Barkley and get out of the way. Everyone knows this, yet Barkley is still good enough to be one of the most feared players in the league.

This team needs to get off to a good start, or else everything could turn south in a heartbeat.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After a stunning 2–0 start to 2018 filled with victories over the playoff-bound Saints and Eagles and plenty of Fitzmagic, things fell apart for the Bucs as they floundered to a 5–11 finish.

We’ve been waiting for years now for Jameis Winston to limit the turnovers and become the smarter, veteran leader this team needs. However, the attention this season might turn to the other side of the ball.

Todd Bowles’ head coaching tenure with the Jets didn’t go as intended, but back as a defensive coordinator, he could help the Bucs make a move. It won’t be easy, though.

25. San Francisco 49ers

Remarkably, Jimmy Garoppolo has started just 10 NFL games, and no more than five in a season. Yes, he’s 8–2, but both of those losses came last year before a torn ACL in Week 3 ended his 2018 season far too early.

If Garoppolo is to become a franchise quarterback and live up to his outrageous five-year, $137.5 contract, which set records at the time, it has to be go time.

Unfortunately, I’m not quite a buyer of the Niners, who haven’t surpassed six wins since getting rid of Jim Harbaugh after the 2014 season. They also just lost Jerick McKinnon to the IR. It’ll open up room for Matt Breida, but can he build on last year’s momentum?

24. Detroit Lions

According to Forbes’ updated list of the most valuable teams in the NFL, only the Bills are worth less than the Detroit Lions. I suppose this is what happens when you haven’t won a championship since 1957 and have never appeared in a Super Bowl.

In recent years, the Lions have been a mediocre team, hovering around .500 and never quite hitting their potential. But is that potential even there this season? I could be wrong, but this has all the feel of a boring 6–10 team. Book it.

23. New York Jets

Sure, head coach Adam Gase might be a psychopath. Oh, who am I kidding? He’s definitely a psychopath. Still, his Jets are in position to improve after winning just four games in 2018, and potentially in a big way.

The team made a major moving in picking up Le’Veon Bell, who despite (and maybe in part because of) resting all of last year in his Steelers contract dispute, should be more than ready to go and return to form as one of the best players in the league.

Things will turn around for the Jets in the next couple of years. Whether it happens a little earlier than expected will depend heavily on the play of second-year quarterback Sam Darnold.

22. Buffalo Bills

Thankfully, the Bills have rid themselves of the curse known as “Nathan Peterman”. Jon Gruden was more than happy to pick up the man who made everyone at home think “maybe I could be a QB in this league”.

In a similar situation to the Jets, the Bills will improve this year with Josh Allen, but likely ultimately still fall short of the playoffs. And now, with the teams ranked #22, 23, and 32, we’ve gotten through the Patriots’ competitors in the AFC East. It should be an easy road like it seems to be every. Single. Year.

21. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts were on fire during the second half of 2018 and even won a playoff game in Houston after starting the year 1–5. It was truly incredible stuff. Indianapolis was in prime position to go toe-to-toe with Houston again this season and look to make an even deeper postseason run this time around.

Then, franchise QB Andrew Luck abruptly retired, forcing all expectations surrounding this team to shift instantly. I wrote about Luck’s retirement, and fully support him in making the decision that was right for him.

But now, Indy needs to figure out how to move on. Jacoby Brissett is the new QB, and he led this team in 2017 when Luck missed that season. With his second crack at it, expect Brissett to be comfortable and operate well in a more running-based offense. However, the skill gap between the two inevitably means the Colts will take a step backward.

20. Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is an interesting team — I never expect too much from them, yet, in 2018, the Marcus Mariota-led group racked up their third-consecutive nine-win season.

That’s cool and all, but nine-win teams don’t usually make the playoffs, and it certainly isn’t creating the excitement this team needs to step up and become a real AFC contender. Like with so many other teams this season, and notably with the Bucs and fellow top-two pick in 2014 Jameis Winston, an improvement in quarterback play is essential.

If Mariota slouches, he could be replaced by Ryan Tannehill, who signed with the team after seven years with the Dolphins, where he started 88 games. With a one-year, $7 million contract which could be worth up to $12 million, Tannehill is one of the highest-paid backups in the league.

19. Denver Broncos

At age 61, Vic Fangio is finally getting his crack at becoming a head coach in the NFL. A longtime defensive coordinator, Fangio just turned the Bears defense into one of the most feared in the NFL, and before that, reached a Super Bowl with the 49ers.

He’ll have high hopes for Von Miller, who at 30, is looking to have the best year in what’s already been a fantastic career. Offensively, the team might have difficulties but will look to establish strong chemistry between Joe Flacco and Emmanuel Sanders, as each has disappointed of late.

18. Carolina Panthers

2015’s Panthers, which went 15–1 during the regular season before losing in the Super Bowl, feel from another century by this point. The last few years have been injury-ridden, although the team has still managed to hit the .500 mark overall.

Christian McCaffrey is perhaps the league’s most versatile back, leading the Panthers in both rushing and receiving and setting an NFL record a year ago with 106 catches as a running back.

This is a team that can definitely hang in the Wild Card mix, and perhaps even steal one of those spots. It might all come down to their always tense divisional rivalries with the Saints and Falcons.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Expect an entirely different Jaguars team after last year’s fiasco. Following a surprising 10-win season and a subsequent run to the AFC Championship Game in 2017, the 2018 Jags won just five games and unraveled completely. That devastating defense? No longer so. The improving Blake Bortles? He backs up Jared Goff now.

It’s Nick Foles show, and with the Luck injury and uncertainty surrounding the Texans, you’d have to peg Jacksonville as the league’s most likely “worst-to-first” team in a pretty open AFC South.

Still, I have plenty of concerns about Leonard Fournette and his ability to not only stay healthy but perform when healthy. Both have been major issues outside of a few highlight plays. Top RBs these days are supposed to have an immediate, game-changing impact. Fournette has not.

16. Baltimore Ravens

Things are often difficult for second-year run-happy quarterbacks. Everyone knows Lamar Jackson is talented. Naturally, teams will now be looking to force him to throw the ball.

Additionally, it will be difficult for the defense to repeat its amazing performance in 2018, which resulted in the fewest yards and second-fewest points allowed per game. This roster is still highly-capable of improving, but it could really go either way for me. I’m not picking them to repeat as champions of the AFC North.

15. Atlanta Falcons

I fully expect the Falcons to have a top-five offense in 2019. Devonta Freeman is once again healthy, and Matt Ryan will have plenty of targets in Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu. Heck, with Sanu, maybe it’s worth saying that HE has plenty of targets, given his status as the league’s best non-QB QB.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, as has been the case for years, there are two sides of the ball. Their defense’s ability to give Ryan & Co. a shot will be the distinguishing factor between a return to form and the postseason, and another lost year, hovering around the middle of the pack.

14. Green Bay Packers

For the first time in Aaron Rodgers’ career as a starter, he isn’t coaching by Matt McCarthy. It’s probably for the best, as it’s felt as if the team has single-handedly relied on Rodgers at times, even while injured, to keep the franchise afloat. Here’s hoping the quick decision to make Matt LaFleur McCarthy’s replacement works out.

I’m not quite as high as some other power rankings on the Packers (which have them #1???), but a return to the postseason seems like a reasonable goal, although the Vikings might have something to say about that.

13. Minnesota Vikings

Speak of the devil.

We all know the Kirk Cousins story — he’s a good quarterback who falls apart against teams with winning records. Despite the overwhelming numerical evidence, I’m just not sure I buy that one player can be so radically different in a subset of games, even if his opponents are better.

Regardless, the Vikings paid Cousins for a reason — they believe they can compete for a title with this core. I don’t doubt that. Their defense was one of the best in the NFL in 2017, and could definitely return to form. On offense, Dalvin Cook could be huge if healthy, and Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs remain arguably the best receiver tandem in the league.

I expect the Vikings to crack the top 10 early this season and stick around.

12. Cleveland Browns

And here we are. The Browns are perhaps the most anticipated team in 2019 following an electrifying campaign from rookies Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, and Denzel Ward which turned a squad that became just the second team in NFL history to go winless in 2017 to a highly-competitive one which finished 7–8–1 and shows no signs of slowing down.

I’ve become enthralled by the Browns, and last month released one of my largest-ever projects documenting their history and 2018 rise. Now with Odell Beckham Jr. reunited with Jarvis Landry and giving Mayfield another Pro Bowl talent to throw to, Cleveland could start to become scary.

Still, I wouldn’t go nuts and hop on the Super Bowl train like one recent tattoo recipient. The Browns could actually win the AFC North, though, and that’s amazing.

11. Houston Texans

For a team without a general manager, the Texans have gone a little crazy with trades as of late, including really bungling the whole Jadeveon Clowney situation.

Looks focus on the positives, though. Deshaun Watson is healthy (keeping him that way is a priority), and a legitimate candidate for the top overall fantasy quarterback. They also picked up a number of pieces which should help them, including Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills, and Carlos Hyde, regardless of the price they paid for them.

Lastly, with Andrew Luck retired, the Texans will enter the season as the AFC South favorite, even if it should be competitive. Without many of their future draft picks, this group needs to perform. They can.

10. Dallas Cowboys

Well, after all the drama, Ezekiel Elliott finally got paid by the Cowboys — to the tune of six years and $90 million, the richest contract ever given to a running back. They’ll still have a few more extensions to sort out, including one for Dak Prescott, but for the moment, the Cowboys are locked and loaded, with their sights on a deep playoff run.

Can they do it? Recent history doesn’t suggest much in terms of postseason success, but this group feels like they’ll make that push one of these years. Why not 2019?

9. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost arguably the best running back and the best wide receiver in the league this offseason in Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Despite this (and miraculously, if I might add), I expect the Steelers to be a better football team in 2019.

Without the distractions, this team can get back to playing their game. James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster have shown themselves to be more-than-viable replacements, as well. Despite Ben Roethlisberger being now 37 years old, he cracking 5,000 passing yards for the first time in 2018, and after two Super Bowls in the early phase of his career but nothing in the middle, he’ll be looking for that third ring in this third phase, post-Bell, and post-Brown.

8. Seattle Seahawks

On top of the great trade to acquire Jadeveon Clowney, the Seahawks even got the Texans to pay $7 million of Clowney’s 2019 salary! I’m sure Seattle will be happy to save a few dollars after making Russell Wilson the richest man in NFL history on a per-year basis.

That contract has since been surpassed by Jared Goff, whose Rams will be the main competition for the Seahawks with the 49ers and Cardinals seemingly out of the picture.

The Clowney pickup is such a big one as Seattle has been looking to rebuild that unit in the post-Legion of Boom Era. This move won’t bring the Seahawks back to their peak, but it will help a good bit.

7. Philadelphia Eagles

After two straight seasons suffering a season-ending injury, the goal for Carson Wentz should simply be to stay on the field. If he can accomplish that, there’s no reason Wentz can’t compete for MVP and the Eagles can’t compete for a Super Bowl. Technically, Wentz has a ring already, but we all know he wants to play in the big game.

2019 is also a homecoming for speedster DeSean Jackson, who began his career in Philadelphia from 2008 to 2013 and demoralized my Giants on many occasions. If he can contribute in a big way, it’ll only take the team that much closer.

6. Chicago Bears

We all know the story of the double-doink by this point. The Bears’ kicking battle has been well-publicized, and while Eddy Pineiro seems to have won the job, he also just kicked one of the most horrific extra points in recent memory.

Outside of the kicking game, which should be improved (one would hope), the Bears retain most of what made them special in 2018, just without defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Could Mitch Trubisky have a breakout season this year? If he could reach Pro Bowl-caliber, there’s no reason this team can’t win the whole NFC.

5. Los Angeles Chargers

Philip Rivers will likely go down as the greatest quarterback of all-time to never win a Super Bowl. Thanks to Tom Brady, he’s never appeared in one. To be fair, the Chargers have had some unlucky breaks over the years. Even when they had one of the greatest teams of all-time, they failed to make the playoffs.

Luckily, Rivers still has a couple of cracks left, and he should (keyword: should) outlast Tom Brady. Unfortunately, he just happens to play in the same division as Patrick Mahomes, who might be a deity.

To make things worse, Melvin Gordon’s holdout has shown no signs of coming to a close, and the Chargers won’t be able to trade him. Yet, I’m still confident in this team’s ability to compete, even if they’ll likely fall ever so short once again.

4. New Orleans Saints

How do Saints fans even stay calm after the way they went out of the playoffs the last two seasons? Oh, wait — they don’t. The fans decided to sue the league for the missed pass interference call that likely cost them a spot in the Super Bowl, even when the Saints themselves took the NFL’s side.

This is an actual storyline in 2019. Nothing surprises me anymore.

On the football field, expect more of the same. The immortal Drew Brees will continue to sling it, and with 20 touchdowns, will become the NFL’s all-time leader in that category, as the record book slowly morphs into a Drew Brees yearbook.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

I’m not even sure what adjectives I can use that would begin to do Patrick Mahomes’ first season as a starting quarterback in the NFL justice. 5,000 yards. 50 touchdowns. It’s nonsense.

So rarely can anyone — let alone a 23-year old, so routinely and completely overpower NFL defenses that I can’t wait to see what he accomplishes during his career. Coaching him is Andy Reid, one of the league’s best. Around him are a plethora of weapons. Their newest addition? LeSean McCoy.

Will the Chiefs slow down? At all? Unlikely.

2. Los Angeles Rams

It seemed as if Sean McVay could do no wrong all season. That is, until the Super Bowl, where his playcalling proved woefully predictable to the Bill Belichick (a man over twice his age) and the Patriots, who held a team that had averaged nearly 33 points in the regular season to just three on the game’s biggest stage.

McVay was outcoached, and he knows it. However, for being just two seasons into his head coaching job, McVay has done an unreal job in transforming the Rams franchise.

Jared Goff’s record contract extension proves that they’re sticking with this tandem for the future, and why wouldn’t they? The Rams have as good a shot as anyone at getting back to the Super Bowl and finishing the job.

1. New England Patriots

Who else could be on top? Fresh off another Super Bowl victory, the 42-year old Tom Brady is once again lord of all he surveys. We think the end is coming, but the Patriots have cheated death many a time in the past, and continue to laugh in the face of what for normal teams is certain demise. After two decades, I know only two things.

1. The AFC East remains abysmal.
2. This dynasty ends when Brady says so.

Connor Groel is a writer who studies sport management at the University of Texas at Austin. He also serves as editor of the Top Level Sports publication on Medium, and the host of the Connor Groel Sports podcast. You can follow Connor on Medium, Facebook, and Twitter, and view his archives at toplevelsports.net