Should the Jays DFA Ryu?
Let’s play that classic game: Pitcher 1 has a 4.34 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP, 3.8 K/BB and a 3.97 FIP. Pitchers 2,3,4 have the following slashlines: (ERA/WHIP/K/BB) 4.32/1.26/2.77, 4.21/1.07/4.83 and 4.11/1.17/3.28. All pretty similar guys right?
Pitcher 1 is Hyun Jin Ryu, former BlueJays staff ace (that position is now held by Robbie Ray) and former league ERA champion. Pitcher 2 is German Marquez; he pitches in Colorado but he was a Jays trade target this past deadline and in the winter. Pitcher 3 is Yu Darvish, the Padres were largely applauded for trading for him recently; and pitcher 4 is Zack Greinke- a no doubter for the Hall of Fame on the tail end of his career. Now you can see how stupid the question in the title of this article is.
I mean, we’re talking Ryu here; the guy with ERAs in the past few years as followed: 2.69, 2.32, 1.97 (in 82 IP). The guy who got Cy Young votes as recently as last year (3rd place). People are upset that Ryu is on the tail end of a 4 year 80 million dollar contract. Let me remind you that Patrick Corbin signed a 6 year deal, and is making 24million dollars this year. Oh and by the way he has a 5.92 ERA this year. The Cardinals are paying Miles Mikolas 17 million a year to spot a 4.15 ERA. Good starting pitchers are expensive dude.
The truth is Ryu has done exactly what we paid him to do. He’s been a pretty reliable starter (160 IP this year even with all the injuries) and he helped the front office signal to the fan base (and to the rest of the league) that the Jays were ready to start contending. He carried a weak pitching staff last year to a playoff game. Do you think George Springer signs with the Blue Jays if we didn’t sign Ryu the offseason before? Maybe, but maybe he doesn’t see the Robbie Ray transformation coming (seriously, who did) and decides to sign with another team who looks more ready to contend.
The truth is Ryu hasn’t failed the Jays. If anything, the Jays have failed Ryu by not being able to do what the Dodgers were able to do. That is, have 8 other pitchers ready to step up and give Ryu rest days. Ryu is someone who barely throws 90 mph on the best of days; he gets by throwing nasty changeups to the edges of the strike zone. He doesn’t even throw f**** throw bullpen sessions! But the Jays don’t have an assortment of starting pitcher options- so Ryu has had to take the ball every 5 days, even when I think the Jays should have been searching for extra rest days for him as often as possible.
I think Ryu will come back next season ready to do battle. While a 6 man rotation isn’t exactly analytically friendly (why would you want to take innings from your ace and give them to a 5th starter), for the Jays it might make sense. Assuming we sign Robbie Ray back- a rotation with Ray, Manoah, Ryu, Berrios, maybe Pearson finally and _____ (insert 5th starter name here) looks pretty frickin strong on paper. If the extra rest allows Ryu to dominate like he did with the Dodgers all the better.
And if this is the Ryu we get for the next 2 seasons, a 4.3 ERA pitcher, is that really all that bad? Like I mentioned earlier, the price of a 4.00 ERA SP is around 20 million per season; we’re not exactly getting hosed here. Is it worth it for 2 seasons of contending Jays (with the hope of many more to come)?
So relax, sit back, and enjoy watching Ryu paint the strike zone the next time he takes the mound; I know I will.
If you like this article, check out some of my other work at CNG analytics. Right now we mostly cover football, but more sports are on the way!
