Similar Numbers? Sure. But Jameis Winston is Not the Next Peyton Manning.
On the surface, the former Bucs QB resembles the five-time MVP.
An article was recently shared with me that makes the case that the most accurate statistical comparison for Jameis Winston’s first five NFL seasons is none other than 14-time Pro Bowler, five-time MVP, and two-time Super Bowl champion Peyton Manning. You know — probably one of the three greatest QBs of all-time.
The writer continues to argue that too much is made of Winston’s interceptions, given the career interception rate trajectories of other great QBs, Bruce Arians’ system, and the Bucs’ lack of a quality ground game, ultimately concluding that Winston’s fall is more due to the NFL’s lower tolerance for mistakes from black QBs during their development.
I’m not here to take a stance on that last idea. There have long been biases against black QBs, and race has probably influenced our perception of Winston more than we’d like to admit. However, that doesn’t forgive Winston for any of his faults on the field.
What interests me is the comparison between Winston and Manning. While it might sound initially outrageous, the numbers are pretty darn close, as described in the article.
Peyton vs. Jameis Stats first 5 years:
Peyton: 20,618 passing yards; 138 TDs, 100 INTs, 62.1 Completion percentage.; 85.9 QB rating; 4.9 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate
Jameis: 19,737 passing yards; 121 TDs, 88 INTs, 61.3 Completion percentage 86.9 QB rating; 4.7 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate
Manning has a slight edge in overall passing yards, as well as a higher volume of both passing yards and touchdowns. However, this is only because Manning started all 80 games of his first five seasons, while Winston had just 72 appearances and 70 starts. Winston actually edges Manning in yards per game 274.1 to 257.7.
However, this raw comparison doesn't take into account the different eras these numbers come from. Manning’s final season came in 2015, Winston’s rookie season. These splits come from timespans 17 years apart. In that time, the league has changed quite a bit, and these changes can be clearly seen in the quarterback position.
Between 1998–2002, teams threw for an average of 3,335 yards per season, versus 3,784 from 2015–19. That’s an increase of 13.5% or 449 yards. This means that Peyton Manning was doing the equivalent of passing for 292.5 yards per game in modern numbers, compared to Winston’s 274.1.
Similarly, quarterbacks are becoming safer with the ball. Teams threw more than four more interceptions per game from 1998–2002 when compared to 2015–19, despite quarterbacks throwing more passes now than ever before. When adjusting for attempts per game, quarterbacks threw interceptions at an over 38% higher rate during Manning’s first five seasons than Jameis’s.
Despite this, both Manning and Winston threw interceptions on 3.5% of their attempts in their first five years in the league. So while Manning and Winston had similar numbers, Winston has played in an era with much stronger quarterback play overall, making Manning much better for his era.
Additionally, with trajectory in mind, it’s worth noting that Manning had the highest interception rate of his career prior to his final season as a rookie, while Winston’s last two seasons have been his worst rates. In 2019, when teams threw the fewest average number of interceptions since 1932, Winston was picked off 30 times, far surpassing his previous career-high of 18.
And while we’re on the subject of turnovers, Winston is tied with Kirk Cousins for the most fumbles (50) since he entered the league and leads the NFL with 23 fumbles lost during that span. For comparison, Manning fumbled 27 times, losing 11 during his first five seasons.
A large part of the writer’s argument for continuing to believe in Winston comes from the way many Hall of Fame (or future HoF) quarterbacks drastically reduced their interception rates following their first several seasons. This may be true (and some of the numbers are quite impressive), but this is simply cherry-picking.
There have been plenty of quarterbacks who have seen their interception rates stay consistent or even increase over their careers. Most of them just aren’t Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Even for the quarterbacks with decreases, some of their improvement just comes from the QB position as a whole becoming better over time.
Could Jameis Winston become a Hall of Fame quarterback? Absolutely. But could he also be out of the league in a few years? You bet. Just saying other players have done something doesn’t mean another player will do the same thing. Peyton Manning won his first MVP in his sixth season. I wouldn’t bet on Winston following suit.
Part of that does come from a lack of weapons. Peyton Manning was lucky enough to play with a Hall of Fame running back in Edgerrin James and two Hall of Fame wide receivers in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Winston had one potential HoF wideout in Mike Evans but has had weak support from the ground game since Doug Martin’s comeback year in 2015.
This isn’t Winston’s fault, but whether he ends up a starting quarterback in 2020 or not (and despite what I’ve said so far, I definitely still see him as a starter in this league), it’s difficult to see him having the team around him to reach his full potential as a quarterback.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t won a playoff game since their Super Bowl victory following the 2002 season and Jameis Winston’s career has been caught in that purgatory. I think it’s good for him to get a fresh start somewhere else, although it’s starting to become strange to see him remain unsigned. Winston is a good QB, but let’s be real — he’s not a great QB yet. And he’s not Peyton Manning.
Connor Groel is a writer who studies sport management at the University of Texas at Austin. He also serves as editor of the Top Level Sports publication on Medium, and the host of the Connor Groel Sports podcast. His book, “Sports, Technology, and Madness,” is available now. You can follow Connor on Medium, Facebook, and Twitter, and view his archives at toplevelsports.net.
