The 5 Riders Most Likely to Win this Year’s Tour de France
Rounding up the cyclists who will compete for victory at the world’s greatest bike race
This year’s Tour de France will kick off with a host of the world’s most elite cyclists in attendance. There can only be one winner, and three weeks of grueling racing will see only the best of the best compete for the famous yellow jersey. Based on their ability, form and team strength, here are the five riders who will battle for overall victory this year.
Egan Bernal
Team: INEOS Grenadiers
Country: Colombia
Best Tour de France Result: 1st place (2019)
The young Colombian rider will hope to secure a second Tour de France title after winning the overall prize last year in what was only his second participation at the race.
The 23-year-old has been in good form since the cycling season returned post-lockdown, winning La Route d’Occitanie in early August and placing second at Tour de l’Ain the next week. However, Bernal did not look at his full strength at his most recent event, Critérium du Dauphiné. Despite taking third place on the opening stage, he struggled to stay with his rivals in the final kilometres in the following stages and was forced to pull out suffering with back pain. The rider be should be fully recovered come the opening stage of the Tour on Saturday.
Bernal leads a young squad into this year’s race. The news that previous Tour de France winners, Geraint Thomas and Chris Froome, were dropped from the team due to fitness issues came as a shock to many but it may work in Bernal’s favour as there should be total solidarity around his leadership. His teammate Pavel Sivakov has looked a strong climber this year and, along with last year’s Giro d’Italia winner, Richard Carapaz, should be of great assistance to Bernal in the high mountain stages. Given that Ineos have won seven of the last eight editions of the Tour de France, whether Bernal will handle the pressure of retaining his title at such a young age will be a decisive factor in the race.
This year’s route includes eight mountain stages which will suit Bernal’s climbing ability while the mountain time trial on the penultimate stage of this year’s race will not phase the Colombian.
Primoz Roglic
Team: Team Jumbo-Visma
Country: Slovenia
Best Tour de France Result: 4th place (2018)
Roglic goes into this year’s Tour as favourite as he attempts to become the first Slovenian winner of the race.
The ex-ski jumper has been in excellent form all season, dominating the professional road scene since its return post-lockdown. The Jumbo-Visma rider was the overall victor at Tour de l’Ain, winning two stages while he was also by far the strongest rider at Critérium du Dauphiné. Like his rival Bernal, he was also forced to abandon the race after a nasty crash on stage 4 saw him sustain open wounds to the left of his body. Had he not fallen he would almost certainly have won the race. The Slovenian champion has talked about the length of time with which his wounds have taken to heal but he will still be the nailed-on favourite for Tour victory come the Grand Depart later this week.
Roglic will be backed by an extremely strong team heading into the Tour. The presence of Tom Dumoulin, Robert Gesink and Sepp Kuss in Jumbo-Visma’s ranks will ensure that Roglic has plenty of protection and the firepower needed to chase down any attacks in the moutnains while Tony Martin and Wout van Aert will be huge factors in pacing the peloton in the earlier moments of each stage. The injured Steven Kruijswijk would be a huge loss for any other team but Jumbo-Visma’s strength is so much so that he may not be missed.
This year’s Tour route will suit Roglic’s climbing power although, given that there is only one time trial at this years race, he may have wished for more opportunities to showcase his supreme abilities against the clock where he could open up some big time gaps on opponents.
Thibaut Pinot
Team: Groupama-FDJ
Country: France
Best Tour de France Result: 3rd place (2014)
Thibaut Pinot will carry the hopes of his country as the French rider with the best chances in general classification at this year’s Tour. After he was forced to abandon in heart breaking fashion last year, he will be extremely motivated to become the Tour’s first French winner since Bernard Hinault in 1985.
Pinot has looked strong in post-lockdown racing. He placed fourth at La Route d’Occitanie and was runner-up at Critérium du Dauphiné although he was just not strong enough on the final day to catch the eventual winner Dani Martinez. Like many of his competitors, he also endured a scrape in the mass crash at the Dauphiné and chose to pull out of attending the French Road Race Championships this week with back pain. Nevertheless, he will be content with his results so far and look to be at the peak of his powers come crunch-time at the Tour.
Groupama-FDJ have committed to supporting Pinot’s efforts this year that even their in-form sprinter, Arnaud Demare, has not been chosen for the Tour squad. Although their line up may not be as strong as competitors Jumbo-Visma and Ineos, the likes of David Gaudu, Rudy Molard and Swiss champion Sébastien Reichenbach will provide plenty of climbing pedigree to support Pinot in the mountains while the new European time trial champion Stefan Kung will provide cover on the open roads.
Pinot could not have hoped for a route which would suit him better. The several mountain stages in the race will suit Pinot’s climbing ability while the penultimate stage’s time trial on Le Planche des Belle Filles is close to where the rider was born and raised.
Nairo Quintana
Team: Team Arkea-Samsic
Country: Colombia
Best Tour De France Result: 2nd place (2013, 2015)
After coming close on a number of occasions, Nairo Quintana will look to finally take Tour de France victory this year and add the title to his wins at the Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a Espana.
Quintana had a great start to the season, winning Tour de la Provence and Tour des Alpes-Maritimes in February and placing sixth at Paris-Nice in March. Post-lockdown he finished eighth at the one-day Mount Ventoux Dénivelé challenge and third at Tour de l’Ain in similarly solid performances. However, Quintana did not appear to have the form to compete at Critérium du Dauphiné amongst his other Tour rivals and pulled out of the race with a knee injury. However, his team have confirmed the Colombian’s fitness for the Tour and if he remains injury-free he will compete for the top places.
Despite Arkea-Samsic’s ProTeam (second division) status, Quintana will lead a relatively strong team into the Tour. Warren Barguil, Diego Rosa and Winner Anacona are all extremely capable climbers amongst the eight man roster while Nairo’s brother, Dayer Quintana is also included. The absence of former French champion sprinter ,Nacer Bouhanni, from the squad suggests that the team will be fully focused around supporting Quintana in his quest for overall victory.
As a pure climber, the stoic Quintana is another rider who this year’s route strongly favours. The absence of any lengthy, flat time trials is also a boost for the Colombian who has lost time to opponents on similar stages in the past.
Mikel Landa
Team: Bahrain-Mclaren
Country: Spain
Best Tour de France Result: 4th place (2017)
Mikel Landa will head into this year’s Tour hoping that his new team will help him deliver the first grand tour victory of his career.
Landa has competed in only two races since cycling’s return this summer. The Spanish rider was runner-up at Vuelta a Burgos which saw him win the points classification jersey but a lacklustre performance at Critérium du Dauphiné saw him finish in 18th position, nearly 20 minutes down on the yellow jersey. Unlike many of his competitors Landa did manage to avoid any injury at the race and but will hope to find improved form at the Tour if he is to compete for the grand prize.
Bahrain-Mclaren have selected strong climbers Pello Bilbao, Wout Poels and Damiano Caruso to support Landa in this years Tour. However, unlike some squads, the team are not totally centered around their leader’s general classification aims as they also hope to land some stage victories. The team’s Italian sprinter Sonny Colbrelli will hope to compete for wins on flat stages while Matej Mohoric may be given free reign to get in breakaways and try for stage wins. Although not ideal, this team setup should not be hugely detrimental to Landa’s race.
Landa is an extremely strong climber on his day and a several finishes at high altitude on this year’s race route will suit the Spaniard. The rider should come more and more into the standings as the race progresses and will fancy his chances of at least getting a place on the podium this year.
