The big Southgate debate will have its answer at Qatar 2022.
Under-fire England manager still has time to turn things around, but the signs aren’t great.
Whether or not you are a fan of the incumbent England manager, he will remain in the position until after the World Cup. Credit in the bank from an unexpected Semi-final in Russia followed by an enthralling run to the final of Euro 2020 which ended in penalty induced tears at the hands of Italy, means that he is untouchable until he gives the powers that be a reasonable excuse to explore other avenues, but what is reasonable?
In terms of the big picture, it is important to remember that before Southgate took control, England had exited at the Quarters in 2006, the Last 16 in 2010 and in the Group phase in 2014. England now are often accused of ‘only beating the poor teams’, but they didn’t even do that previously; See games against the USA and Algeria in 2010, Costa Rica in 2014, Iceland in 2016, the list goes on.
On paper, the current squad is arguably top 3 in the world. There are no deficiencies as obvious as Spain’s lack of firepower, for example. This fact accompanied with the point that this team has had years to gel and had 2 extended tournament runs, means that now a successful World Cup in Qatar requires reaching another final.
Looking at recent results, it is clear to see that the team is currently flailing. Regardless of where Southgate lies in your estimations, 2 points from 5 games against Hungary x2, Italy x2 and Germany is not good enough. We are now in unknown territory; England have never been this bad under Southgate and how they react to this run of form will define both the current and next era of English international football.
Southgate has his favourites and they have served him well on the big stage so far, but suffering several defeats in the Nations League while some of the most talented players available watch on from the stands will frustrate. Yes, Maguire is fine in a 3 for the national team, but has Ben White really not done enough for consideration? Shouldn’t the players plying their trade in Italy have been given a chance to take down some familiar adversaries? Fikayo Tomori was a pivotal part of the best defence in Serie A, and one that won Milan’s first Scudetto in 11 years; viewers of the Italian League struggle to comprehend his exclusion at the expense of Kyle Walker, who is frankly a defensive liability. His outstanding recovery pace doesn’t compensate enough for lapses in concentration, especially against teams that will apply sustained pressure.
These are the types of decisions that have up until recently manifested in success for Southgate’s side, Jordan Pickford was no shoe in for the Euros before he won the golden glove, and set the record for scoreless minutes by an England goalkeeper (721), not to mention saving 2 penalties in the final shootout. Similarly, Maguire has not always curried favour at club level but his performances at tournaments have always impressed.
England have never been particularly easy on the eye under Southgate, they have a sturdy defence which is fronted by a cautious midfield, whilst goals often come from set pieces. This is fine. Tournament football is about results and the last 2 have seen a marked improvement from the underachieving ‘golden generation’ of the 2000s. The problem is for Southgate is that the result is now imperative, the job he’s done in cultivating a positive atmosphere in the England camp should not be forgotten, but football fans are greedy and are no longer satiated by the fact that the lads on the pitch come across well and play for the badge more than their predecessors; they need success.
Cynics offer reminders that England only defeated Panama, Tunisia and Sweden in normal time in 2018. Whilst Euro 2020 offered home advantage and games against Scotland/Croatia/Czech Republic in the groups before facing a jaded Germany, Ukraine and Denmark en route to a Wembley final. In the previous two tournaments, Southgate’s England have arguably lost every game involving a robust opponent (Belgium x2, Croatia, Italy). How the team fares in Qatar will be telling in whether Southgate’s era is defined as one of development and growth, or simply squandered opportunities from a series favourable ties.
At this moment in time, it is hard to argue that Southgate is the optimal choice. In an ideal world, England would have a manager who can pick in form players and extract the most from them. However, it is too late in the day for a change to be made so we are left with the functional pragmatist whose methods sometimes frustrate. England fans must be patient for at least one more tournament, and at the end of it they will be rewarded with success or a replacement in the hot-seat.
Southgate may not be the most tactically astute Manager, but he is an expert in levelheadedness. He is unlikely to be influenced by the noise. We can confidently predict that the old favourites will remain in place along with a cautious tactical approach, but will familiar strategies yield new results?
