The issue costing Liverpool which Jurgen Klopp needs to address
Before the season began, there was optimism of further success, there is still plenty of time but the fractured midfield needs resolving
90 minutes had not even been played this season when Thiago was substituted due to injury away at Craven Cottage; this was critical.
In 21/22, Liverpool’s league win percentage with the Spaniard was 84.6%, the only loss he was involved in was away at West Ham, he came off the bench with the team already behind. The above percentage plunges to 50% without him- the loss at Leicester, the draws to Brighton and Brentford all occurred in his absence, these games cost Liverpool the title. Draws against the rest of the top 4 are not bad results, especially when you dismantle United home and away, and cruise past Arsenal likewise.
This drop off could be seen as unusual, Liverpool are blessed with talent throughout, (despite recent form) Trent Alexander-Arnold is one of the best creators in the division, his counterpart Robertson too- usually. These creators feed some of the deadliest forwards around; Salah consistently hits 20 a season, and Diaz had usurped Mané on the left wing before he departed, Núñez is still adjusting but is a threat. They also have many options in midfield, there are 7 or 8 players who can fill that central midfield position, though none to such effect.
Why then, with such quality all over the pitch, do Liverpool rely so heavily on Thiago?
Their system has adapted since his arrival, they ask more from their midfielders now than they did when they won the Champions League and Premier League in back-to-back seasons. Compared to then, the midfielders are now used more to create higher up the pitch, supporting the wingers right up to the edge of the box to create sustained pressure. Henderson and Milner are usually fine playing the destroying roles in midfield, chopping up opposition attacks before serving the ball to wide creators, but Thiago’s arrival allowed for the dynamic to shift in favour of a more traditional approach to attacking, which his replacements are not equipped for.
Since his injury this season, Liverpool have drawn to Crystal Palace and lost to United, beating only Bournemouth and Newcastle (by the skin of their teeth), they have not won away from home this season. In Europe, they were humbled away to Napoli, most Reds fans wouldn’t have been surprised by the result, but the manner of it was absolutely dire; Klopp said afterwards “We definitely have to kind of reinvent ourselves because just basic things were not there” and mentioned how the midfield had become “disconnected”.
Thiago returned from injury in this game and out-tackled the rest of midfield in a 28-minute cameo, his skillset is imperative to this evolution of Klopp’s team. He is virtually press-resistant and has greater vision, composure and ball winning skills than other central midfielders in the squad, this allows sustained pressure in attacks, without this Liverpool are vulnerable to the counter, as when Crystal Palace opened the scoring at Anfield in the second game.
Liverpool are usually quite unwavering, their tactics are largely set in stone and they rarely venture in the market unless absolutely necessary. The arrival of Arthur signals that an injection of quality was needed. Although he has struggled at Barcelona and Juventus, he is clearly very skilled, you don’t get labelled as Xavi’s successor without cause. Liverpool’s 4–3–3 could offer him the chance to play in a system he is suited to, with quality and stability around him, he could thrive.
There are a few ways in which this can be dealt with: Thiago consistently staying fit (unfortunately, unlikely), Arthur (or Keita, if ever available) stepping up to fill his role effectively, or a tactical tweak from Klopp.
In 2018/19, Klopp sometimes elected for a 4–2–3–1, with Xherdan Shaqiri in the #10 position. Using 2 holding midfielders in front of the CBs, Liverpool created a system in which a squared back 4 would sit around halfway, tasked with winning the ball and feeding the creators. Henderson, Fabinho, Milner and Wijnaldum were all excellent fits due to their mobility, defensive attributes and reading of the game and the partnership of Van Dijk and Gomez offered outstanding recovery pace, should the opposition breach through the double pivot. A return to this system could be beneficial, Darwin is a conventional ‘9’, Fabinho would be less isolated, and Henderson/Milner would have some close cover, making them less likely to show their age. The full backs would be less exposed and Elliott would be suited to a game with less defensive responsibility than he has now in the ‘RCM’ role.
There is a worry that there will be no major adaptation, in 2020/21 when the squad had no fit centre backs, the formation and game plan stayed the same.
The 4–2–3–1 is not the only solution, but something needs to change if Thiago’s fitness issues continue. Klopp has developed a world class system, but without Thiago he doesn’t have the tools to enact it.
