Top 5 NBA Teams That Have Exceeded Expectations This Season
No one expected these guys to be this good.
Today was the NBA trade deadline, which, along with next week’s All-Star Weekend, symbolically marks the shift to the second phase of the NBA season. Teams have played roughly 50 games to this point but now is when the intensity will really start to ramp up. With a strong idea of the playoff picture, teams around the bubble will fight for their spot in the postseason while those safely in the field will jockey for seeding and favorable matchups, trying to get themselves into peak form.
As we move into this high-stakes section of the season, which teams have performed the best compared to their preseason expectations? Who are the biggest surprise stories? These are my top five teams who have impressed this season.
5. Milwaukee Bucks (43–7)
Some people might choose to classify the Bucks as something of an “honorable mention” pick considering we knew they would be elite (I picked them as the most likely team to win the championship in the preseason), but I’m not sure we fully realize just how incredible Milwaukee has been.
After winning 60 games a year ago, the Bucks are currently on pace to up that total by double digits to 70 or 71 wins, which would make them just the third team in NBA history to hit the 70-win mark. They rank second in offensive rating, first in defensive rating, and are currently on pace for the highest average point differential in NBA history. The Bucks are, without a doubt, one of the most dominant teams we’ve ever seen.
Barring a major injury, Giannis Antetokounmpo seems a shoo-in to win his second consecutive MVP award. Averaging 30 points, 13 rebounds, and nearly 6 assists per game, the Greek Freak is an unstoppable force, pure and simple. Even crazier, he’s only doing this in 30.7 minutes per game. On a per-36 minute basis, Giannis is actually scoring more points than James Harden.
And even when Giannis sits, the Bucks are still one of the league’s best teams. Milwaukee is clearly the team to beat this season.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (31–20)
When the Thunder traded Russell Westbrook to the Rockets for Chris Paul over the offseason, it officially marked the end of an era. For a franchise that once had three future NBA MVPs on its roster (Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and James Harden), all had now the left the team, and OKC had no championships to show for it.
Also leaving was another superstar — Paul George — who, after signing a four-year, $137 million max contract in the summer of 2018 and subsequently having the best season of his career, forced himself to the Los Angeles Clippers to team up with Kawhi Leonard and create a new superteam.
Remarkably, the pair of moves left the Thunder with the potential for up to 15 first-round draft picks over the next seven drafts. So while the Thunder were expected to miss the playoffs in 2019–20, they would be in a good position to compete down the road.
There’s just one problem with that statement (although, the Thunder will hardly consider it a problem): the Thunder are still good, right now. At 31–20, the Thunder find themselves in a tie for sixth in the West with the Mavericks, comfortably in the playoffs and just 1.5 games out of the 4-seed.
On a 50-win pace, OKC has a decent chance of finishing with a better record than last year’s squad that went 49–33 and finished a similar sixth in the West.
Chris Paul is an All-Star for the first time since 2016, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the league’s top young guards. Add in the interior presence of Steven Adams and the scoring abilities of Danilo Gallinari and Dennis Schröder, and the Thunder are a team not to be slept on, fully capable of giving someone a very hard time in the first round of the playoffs.
3. Memphis Grizzlies (26–25)
It nearly seemed like a forgone conclusion that the Grizzlies would finish the 2019–20 season dead last in the Western Conference. On February 6, however, Memphis finds themselves a game over .500, winners of 13 of their last 16, and with a bit of breathing of room in the race for the 8-seed.
While the Warriors have suffered from injuries and a lack of any defense, the Kings and Timberwolves’ playoff aspirations quickly came apart, and even the Spurs seem likely to miss the postseason for the first time since 1997, the success of Memphis’ almost frighteningly young core has been one of the stories of the season.
Ja Morant has regularly wowed with his athleticism and vision and is running away with Rookie of the Year honors. Jaren Jackson Jr. (JJJ) is one of the league’s top shooters and ballhandlers for his size (6'11"), as well as an excellent defender. Both are just 20 years old. Combined with a slew of other young talents and Jonas Valanciunas’ career revival, the Grizzlies need just two wins in their final 31 games to eclipse their preseason over/under of 27.5 wins. Everything afterward is just gravy.
2. Miami Heat (34–16)
Jimmy Butler’s decision to sign with the Heat last offseason was described by many as more of a lifestyle choice than anything else. Butler got his max contract and the chance to live in Miami. He wouldn’t have a chance to compete for a title, but he could comfortably make the playoffs and enjoy life. Well, shame on all of the doubters who decided to sleep on Butler’s competitive drive and the potential waiting to be discovered in South Beach.
Jimmy Butler can ball. We all knew that. But the way this team has been able to develop talent this season is arguably unmatched. Bam Adebayo has made huge strides in his third season, going from averages of nine points and seven rebounds to being an All-Star. Duncan Robinson came from nowhere to being of the league’s best shooters, drilling 3.4 triples per game at a rate of 43.5%. Kendrick Nunn, a 24-year old rookie who went undrafted in 2018, spending all of last year in the G-League, is averaging 16 points per game and could finish as high as second in Rookie of the Year voting. Tyler Herro has also had a strong first NBA campaign.
This team currently sits 4th in the East and has spent time as high as #2. And at the trade deadline, they made moves to pick up Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder from the Grizzlies as Pat Riley has gone all-in with his sights on competing for a championship.
1. Toronto Raptors (37–14)
The Raptors have gained a reputation as a team willing to make bold moves. It’s how they won their first NBA title last season. When Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard left for L.A. over the offseason, the Raptors made yet another bold move. Instead of scrambling to sign another superstar, they held pat.
With an almost identical rotation from a season ago, sans Leonard, the Raptors bet on themselves. Let’s take a look at how that wager panned out.
Toronto currently has the third-best record in the league (even ahead of the Clippers). Pascal Siakam has continued his ridiculous ascent and is now an All-Star starter. Fred Van Vleet is putting up Kyle Lowry numbers. So is Kyle Lowry himself. The Raptors are an ultimate feel-good story and one of the tightest-knit groups in the league.
While they have their work cut out for them in taking down Milwaukee, this is a team that knows how to pull off an upset. Don’t count out the defending champs.
Connor Groel is a writer who studies sport management at the University of Texas at Austin. He also serves as editor of the Top Level Sports publication on Medium, and the host of the Connor Groel Sports podcast. His book, “Sports, Technology, and Madness,” is available now. You can follow Connor on Medium, Facebook, and Twitter, and view his archives at toplevelsports.net.
