What went wrong with the Raptors Last Year?
Before we begin, I would just like to acknowledge this article was written on National day for truth and reconciliation .
The Raptors didn’t make the playoffs last year; and while that afforded them the option of drafting the highly touted Scottie Barns (SCOTTIE DON”T)
the raptors clearly weren’t happy with their results last season. Not all is bad though, we resigned key acquisition Gary Trent Jr, got a solid haul for GROAT Kyle Lowry and our young players looked good in Summer League (one might say some of them looked precious). With a bounce back year from Siakam and another leap from OG, the Raptors could potentially surprise in a ‘weakish’ Eastern Conference. So, let’s quickly run down how the Raptors did statistically last year.
The Raps have probably the best coach in the league in Nick Nurse, and you can see their strategy in the year end stats. The team has adopted an analytically sound strategy, that is, optimizing points per possession. They ranked in the top 5 of the league in 3PA, the top 10 in FTA and were second to the bottom of the league in 2PA. Unfortunately, the Raptors were middle of the pack (exactly the middle, they ranked 15/30) for 3P%.
But this is all things we know. Lowry didn’t spend as much time as he’d have liked in uniform last year, and without their primary playmaker the Raps lacked the offensive firepower seen in their earlier contending years (also Pascal had a huge down year…). Our FG% was 27th out of 30 teams, which is why it was surprising to see the Raptors draft Scottie Barnes, a man known more for his defense over the talented Jalen Suggs.
To me, this signalled two things:
- The Raptors clearly think the upside on Barnes is greater than the upside for Suggs. Barnes is a 6 ft 7 switchable defender with guard like handles and vision in a big man’s body. Look at how much press Ben Simmons, a guy who can’t hit a free throw, is getting. Teams want a switchable defence; and the raptors have acquired a big piece of that puzzle for the next few years.
- The raptors are prioritizing defence over offence.
Last year the Raptors ranked in the top 4 of the league for league for steals and blocks; and they lead the league in forcing offensive turnovers. Basically, the raptors have done the baseball equivalent of the Milwaukee Brewers; no one on their team can really hit a lick, but try scoring on that pitching rotation and bullpen. A run saved is a run that doesn’t need to be plated.
What the Raptors do need to work on is staying disciplined. They ranked in the top 10 of the league for Opponent 3PA (that would be Boucher’s fly by 3pt block attempts, as amazing as it is to see when he blocks one) as well as the top of the league for FTA (as in they allowed the most FTA in the league). But the core pieces are there for the Raptors to have one of the top defences in the league next year.
Alright, that’s all for now. If you enjoyed this article, take a look at what we’re doing over at CNG Analytics . Come join us on a ride to offer tools for Fantasy Sports that you’ve never seen before.
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