Didi Chuxing IPO: The race to dominate the global ride-hailing pool besides stiff competition
DiDi Chuxing is a Chinese ride-hailing company headquartered in Beijing that was founded in 2012 by Cheng Wei. DiDi is China’s largest ride-hailing provider, with nearly 600 Mn riders and tens of millions of drivers. Didi Chuxing has the advantage of being a domestic player who is familiar with China and its clients. In China, the company’s app allows users to request trips from automobiles and taxis, as well as chauffeur services, minibusses, and ride-sharing services. If the IPO is successful, the company’s valuation could range between $70 Bn and $100 Bn. DiDi Chuxing, which is backed by SoftBank, plans to raise $1.5 Bn in debt financing through a revolving loan facility prior to its IPO. At a time when the Chinese government is cracking down on technology companies, Uber’s Chinese counterpart DiDi Chuxing may have filed for an IPO under the radar. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been chosen to lead the company’s initial public offering (IPO).
Snapshot
· Headquarters: Beijing, China
· Founded: 2012
· Notable Investors: SoftBank, Alibaba Capital Partners, and Ant Group
· Capital Raised: $24.9 Bn
· Latest Valuation: $62.0 Bn
· Exchange: NYSE
· Ticker Symbol: DIDI
· Founder: Cheng Wei
Cementing the position with its industry-leading services
DiDi-Chuxing allocates calls from customers within 3 kilometers, though this boundary is being widened now. However, DiDi-Chuxing recently added a destination basic allocation system in which DiDi drivers can announce a destination and escaping location. The DiDi-Chuxing allocating systems have two modes: selection mode, which began in July 2018, allows the DiDi driver to choose the destination, including long-distance; and allocation mode, which allocates calls to DiDi drivers nearby.
DiDi-Chuxing usually assigns DiDi-X to veterans and DiDi-pool to new drivers. Customers of DiDi use payment methods such as Wechat-Pay, AliPay, DiDi-Pay, and others. When paying for any DiDi-Chuxing usage, DiDi customers can change their payment methods. When a customer sends a DiDi-Chuxing car-sharing fee, the fee is transferred from the customer to DiDi. If the customer did not pay, he must pay the fee before using DiDi-Chuxing again. In the case of long-distance driving in Beijing, the DiDi system raises the fee by up to 30% to compensate the DiDi driver for financial loss.
In the case of DiDi-Premier, there are discrepancies between the announced payment amount in advance and the actual payment amount after driving. These two amounts, however, differed by only a few cents. Even though the customer’s money is directly allocated to the driver’s bank account, the money may be paid a little late after driving. Actual payment takes place two days after the customer’s payment, or one-time weekly payment is made.
Currently, DiDi-Premier is charged a distance fee, a low-speed fee, and a long-distance fee. DiDi-Luxury also receives a long-distance basic fee and a fast call allocation fee. Because of weak government regulations and medium-level public transportation conditions, DiDi-Chuxing has a 3 km base call allocation system, with a trend toward increasing the allocation distance from more than 3 km up to 10 km in the case of DiDi-Luxury.
The ride-hailing app’s concentrated revenue model
The majority of the company’s revenue comes from its private ride-hailing app. DiDi-X drivers received 80% of the revenue paid to DiDi-Chuxing by the customer. DiDi drivers can drive the DiDi car for 12 hours per day, which is calculated based on the DiDi operating time.
DiDi-Premier drivers earn 74% of the revenue. DiDi-Premier fees are 20% higher than DiDi-X fees, and DiDi-Premier drivers earn 20% more than DiDi-X drivers. DiDi-Luxury is five times more expensive than DiDi-X and three times more expensive than DiDi-Premier. DiDi-Chuxing pays DiDi-owned luxury car drivers 10,000 yuan per month in one-time and weekly payments. The fee for DiDi-Pool is 10% less than the fee for DiDi-X. If customers pay with Alipay, Alipay provides a small incentive to the drivers as part of an Alipay promotion in DiDi-Chuxing. If a DiDi driver cancels the allocation more than four times, the driver must pay DiDi-Chuxing a fee.
What is important is that the revenue of DiDi drivers is more than twice the minimum salary of university-graduated manpower under the weakness of China’s taxi industry and the automotive industry with the support of the Chinese government with limited regulatory power. The Chinese government regards DiDi-Chuxing as a kind of revenue-increasing engine for the people.
Didi’s business timeline
A dominant strategic player in the Chinese market with uncertain longevity
DiDi Chuxing has risen to the top of the online car-hailing market after merging with and acquiring Uber China. After driving Uber out of China in 2016, DiDi Chuxing quickly dominated the country’s massive ride-sharing market — but its position is far from secure, as more powerful rivals emerge to challenge its dominance. According to PwC, China’s shared travel market will reach $564 Bn by 2030, with a 32% annual growth rate. Many businesses have been drawn in by the massive shared travel dividend. China’s online car-hailing market exhibits a high level of market competition. Many players are still active, in addition to the dominant DiDi Chuxing. There is still room for a taxi-hailing market worth $100 Bn. The national average ride-hailing success rate is around 75%, and 25% of online ride-hailing demand remains unmet. This provides a lot of incentive for new entrants like Gaode Taxi, Meituan Taxi, Ruqi Travel, and other public online ride-hailing platforms.
DiDi Chuxing has approximately 554.7 Million orders, while the order volume of more than ten travel platforms such as T3 Travel, Cao Cao Travel, Wanshun Car-hailing, Xiangdao Travel, and Meituan Travel is less than 90 Mn, according to the calculation of the internal parameters of online car-hailing. As can be seen, DiDi Chuxing’s order volume far outnumbers that of other ride-hailing platforms. DiDi Chuxing, on the other hand, cannot sit back and relax. The company’s continued loss of market share has also planted a slew of hidden dangers for it. DiDi Chuxing’s market share accounted for 95% of the scale of online ride-hailing around 2016. Later, due to security incidents, DiDi Chuxing’s ride-hailing business was forced to go offline in the second half of 2018, and its market share also fell to 90%; according to calculations, DiDi Chuxing’s market share is only about 85% today.
How does Didi fair over different regions and their market leaders?
Chinese ride-sharing giant on the way to profitability
DiDi Chuxing is dubbed “China’s Uber,” yet it really outperforms Uber and other competitors in the Chinese market. DiDi Chuxing, or DiDi, is a Chinese ride-hailing startup that has amassed over 550 Mn users and 31 Mn drivers since its launch nine years ago. DiDi claims to have a 99% market share in China’s taxi-hailing business and an 87% market share in private auto hailing, according to its own data. In comparison to Uber China’s 45 cities, it has a presence in over 400 cities across the country.
The company’s primary ride-hailing business is lucrative, and it has rebounded since the coronavirus outbreak in China, its home market. The corporation has 14 international markets, including Australia, Japan, Latin America, and Mexico, in addition to China. The business is more than just automobiles and cabs. DiDi also includes bus services and a chauffeur booking option, which might be beneficial if you’ve had too much to drink and need a designated driver to take both the car and the driver home.
DiDi’s financial performance is difficult to quantify because it is a privately held firm. In 2018, Chinese news outlets claimed losses of $1.6 Bn. While its primary ride-hailing company charged an average of 19% in commissions, overall expenses, which included tax payments and driver bonuses, were 21%, implying a 2% loss each journey. This pattern may be traced all the way back to the beginning.
Concerns regarding the company
· Massive expansion and competitive pressure: DiDi’s rapid expansion in China was fuelled by its fierce competition with Uber and lax government rules regarding ride-hailing services. DiDi created an army of drivers, which it bolstered with massive driver subsidies, allowing it to outrun Uber’s operations.
· Regulation which limits driver’s work regions: China, unlike the United States, has rules that limit where residents can work. DiDi drivers from rural areas, in particular, are not allowed to work in larger cities unless they live there. Residency licenses come in a variety of levels, and cities vary in how aggressively they enforce them. However, many are tightening their belts. Many large cities are experiencing a driver shortage as a result of this, as many drivers do not want to risk paying fines for working where they do not live. It has also compelled DiDi to delete a large number of its drivers from its own app.
· DiDi’s predicament is hardly exceptional: Regardless of size, all ride-sharing companies must choose between responsible expansion and safety. The murders that were reported exposed significant flaws in the DiDi app and its protocols. One major flaw was the company’s decision to outsource its passenger assistance system, which was chastised for failing to act on a previous complaint against one of the alleged murderers. Keeping an in-house customer support team would definitely strengthen the entire safety system, but it is a step that would have a negative influence on the company’s bottom line, which is already far from profitable.
Valuation analysis of the company
Market sentiments surrounding the IPO
DiDi Chuxing is planning an initial public offering, with a capitalization of $60 Bn. Although no official date has been set, the company anticipates going public in the first half of 2021. When it comes to ride-hailing, you may only be familiar with Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. DiDi, on the other hand, is one of the most well-known ride-hailing companies in the world. Even yet, the recent failures of ride-hailing IPOs are worth noting. Following their IPOs, both Uber and Lyft saw their stock prices plummet, trading as low as 70% below their IPO prices. DiDi, on the other hand, may have something the other businesses don’t.
DiDi has a 17.5% ownership in Uber, and DiDi has invested $1 Bn in Uber, so DiDi is essentially the Chinese Uber. But there’s a lot more to it. DiDi joined Kuaidi in 2015 to build a smartphone-based transportation services behemoth. Taxis, privately owned cars, carpooling, and buses would be summoned by users. This is in stark contrast to the Uber and Lyft models, which rely solely on scooters.
According to the sources, DiDi Chuxing chose New York because of a more predictable listing pace, the existence of comparable peers such as Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc., and a larger capital pool. The decision comes as the US Securities and Exchange Commission pushes forward with a plan to delist international companies from US stock exchanges if they fail to meet US auditing criteria.
But even if DiDi was restricted to China alone, there would still be a case for the company. It serves a nation of 2 Billion people and has plenty of institutional backing. Tech investment giant and Uber-backer SoftBank Group Corp backs Didi. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings ADR also back the company. Before its IPO, DiDi still expects to have another funding round to boost the valuation. Some of its shares are still trading below its 2017 peak valuation of $56 Bn.
Extensive product expansion and the road ahead
DiDi Chuxing, a Chinese app-based ride-hailing business, has unveiled a new three-year strategy for steady and sustainable growth. DiDi’s three-year plan, dubbed “0188,” moves away from its “all-in-safety” approach and toward longer-term safety capacity building and user value creation. The number 0 represents safety as a top concern, while the other three numbers represent DiDi’s strategy aims.
As of the beginning of 2020, DiDi has completed over 1 Bn international journeys. DiDi prioritizes its platform for integrated four-wheeler (ride-hailing, taxi, designated driving, and hitch) and two-wheeler (bike and e-bike) and public transportation solutions, as well as it’s subsidiary Xiaoju Automobile Solutions, autonomous driving, fintech services, and smart transportation businesses.
A customer-centric car leasing business has been unveiled by DiDi and its long-time partner BAIC, as well as a consortium of automotive industry enterprises and Chinese state-owned institutions. “In the next three years, the companies hope to have a fleet of 100,000 cars available for lease,” according to the agreement.
Should you invest?
The majority of initial public offerings (IPOs) are volatile at first. You have a large influx of early investors who buy into the hoopla and then fade away. As a result, many IPOs experience a drop in the period following the IPO. We’ve already listed Uber and Lyft, but we can think of a few more. JFrog Ltd. (NASDAQ: FROG) has dropped 33% since its first public offering in October. Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW), the largest software IPO in history, dropped 40% after rising 61% in the months afterward. This is how most initial public offerings (IPOs) go, which is why we constantly advise against investing in them immediately. You might want to get in as quickly as possible in some circumstances. But, in most cases, it’s better to wait for the euphoria to settle down and see whether the stock can return to a stable state i.e. the actual value. You should also be wary of the company’s particular industry.
It’s difficult to be positive about a ride-hailing service, using Uber and Lyft as examples. But, as we already stated, DiDi’s case may be different. As both Uber and Lyft have been embroiled in a price war across the United States, which has caused their stock prices to plummet.
DiDi has the advantage of having China almost entirely to themselves, as well as having infiltrated overseas markets. A user base seven times that of what many consider the industry’s biggest brand (Uber) might have a significant impact on DiDi’s stock performance following its IPO. As a result, the stock is more likely to be a buy than Uber or Lyft. However, because Uber is a shareholder, DiDi’s success might put money in Uber’s pocket, giving Uber an even bigger advantage in its struggle with Lyft. If you want to purchase Didi stock, it is advisable to get it at the right price.
This article has been co-authored by Sayan Mitra and Yogesh Lakhotiya, who is in the Research and Insights team of Torre Capital.
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