2019/20 Summer Transfer Window — more than meets the eye
Many talking points
The 2019/20 summer transfer window seemed to have it it all — mega deals, high profile long-running saga, and ‘practical’ business. Yet, there was much more than met the eye. TotalFootball presents an eclectic mix of the highlights.
Big Hits
The biggest names lit up the transfer sky with some real fireworks. Griezmann ($135m) and Hazard ($113m), ensured that the triple-figure ceiling was breached, giving a kind of “authenticity” to the window in terms of meeting big-money transfer expectations of fans.
Real and Barcelona played their part. The third part of this Liga trio, Atletico was not to be held back, making the “next Ronaldo”, the teenage Joao Felix, the third most expensive signing in history for a staggering $140m. For the fourth year running, an all-time Top 5 transfer record was set.
Lukaku, Maguire and Pepe, all signed for upwards of €80m (or $89m) were other prominent entrants into the Top 20 all-time transfers, with young Ajax sensations de Ligt and de Jong sitting just outside the Top 20, having commanded around €75m (or $83m) each.
The Top 5 European leagues did a record-breaking business of £5b in total, obliterating the previous mark (set last season) by a staggering £800m. Serie A, Liga and Premier League, all topped the £1b mark, coming in at £1.06b, £1.24b and £1.41b respectively.
Clearance sales
This has been a sub-theme of the transfer market. Liverpool, with the sale of Mignolet, completed the final stage of their progressive cleanout. Bayern are a club in transition with many stars retiring. Their window has been a mixed bag and despite departures of Hummels, Rodriguez and Perisic, they have added the French centre-back pairing of Hernandez and Pavard. Manchester United also undertook a clearout of their own, with Valencia, Smalling and Lukaku departing and a loan deal finalized for Sanchez.
In the one-horse race of Serie A, Juventus have played it both ways. They’ve done smart business, snapping a number of known players either on free or for cut-price deals while also flexing their financial muscle as required. Juventus are clearly only gearing up for European competition, as the Serie A has no meaningful competition for them. Juventus are capitalizing on clearouts by other clubs. Inter meanwhile managed a mind-boggling 106 player movements (out and in), including Lukaku (who I feel is overpriced) and Sanchez on loan, as they try to rekindle a desperate challenge to bring the Scudetto to Milan after 9 years.
Sagas
Yay-mar, Nay-mar or Stay-mar?
Is he going, is he not? In the end, it seemed to be a case of Neymar-Staymar. The inevitable circus that surrounds Neymar played out at the very highest level with both Barcelona and Real Madrid entering the fray. Both clubs had offered cash with up to three players for Neymar! The long-running saga, which dominated headlines from the end of last season, finally ended two days before the deadline, after PSG deemed none of the offers sufficient for selling Neymar, whom they purchased for €222m two years ago.
For PSG, Neymar was a “statement” buy. Trying to convert an emotional purchase into a hard-headed financial transaction is almost impossible. No club will pay what PSG paid for him. €150m cash would be the max, especially given his injuries, suspensions and instances of showboating and diving. EPL clubs were not in the picture. That only left Barcelona who Neymar left on bitter terms and Real, who would put their ring into the hat if only to outshow Barcelona. I think no club had a real pressing need for him — at least not at PSG’s asking prices and his own high wages. Like all great sagas, a number of conspiracy theories also did the rounds, doubting if the buyers and sellers in this situation actually wanted a deal at all!
Anyway, the only club that needs Neymar is PSG — so they can get a return on their investment. For Neymar, the best option is to stay at PSG, re-establish his credentials and then hit the market next season. He’ll still be 28 and his deemed contemporaries, Messi and Ronaldo, would be one year closer to retirement. Like all great sagas, this will screen again next season.
Strategy
The competitive state of the league and capability of rivals has an important influence on transfer strategies. This season it was more apparent than ever before.
In one-horse races like Serie A or Ligue 1, the big horse is actually competing against continental rivals so they are in a different league (pun intended) when it comes to transfers. In two-horse races, like Liga, the transfer strategy is of one-upmanship.
In a competitive league like the Premier League, the permutations become complex. When the most competitive elite league is also the most lucrative, transfer action is seen at both ends.
At the top end, the Premier League revealed a chess-like transfer strategy. With a yawning double-digit gap between second and third place last season it’s easy to see why City and Liverpool did not want (need?) to spend (as) much or at all even. After seasons of austerity, Spurs, buoyed by their UCL and EPL earnings, saw an opportunity to strengthen their midfield and by doing so cement third place at least — especially since last season’s 4th placed Chelsea’s transfer ban eliminated Spurs’ biggest rival from the transfer market. Chelsea, faced with a transfer ban, signed Pulisic in the winter window, sold Morata, sold Hazard for a huge fee, returned Higuain while keeping hold of their young talent. They’ve used the transfer ban to rebuild under a new coach (old boy) Lampard. The vacuum they left in transfer activity seems to be filled by — Arsenal who splashed big on Pepe, making for a very formidable frontline, although their defence looks very suspect. The Gunners are banking on forward power to break into the Top 4.
While Arsenal went for short term gains, Manchester United seemed to have (involuntarily) pivoted towards longer-term gains. They have paid sticker price for crucial reinforcements knowing that clubs are now smart enough to hold on for high prices when buyers like Manchester United come knocking. This season more than ever, we’ve been able to see that transfer business is more than just a function of financial strength. Brand strength matters a lot and so does European competition. If a club is not in UCL, players may not consider it regardless of the wages on offer. While there was no shortage of funds, one gets the sense that this season United was not able to attract the pedigree they could previously. However, instead of free-spending and gunning for Top 2 finish, they seemed to have glanced sideways. With Chelsea (forced) to go for “youth”, United have seen an opportunity to build long term, giving their youngsters a chance, while undertaking a clearance.
A potentially weakened Chelsea has theoretically left their finishing position last season — the 4th UCL slot, up for grabs. United and Arsenal seemed to have prioritized that slot as a minimum return while responding with different strategies. Chelsea, of course, might still make the Top 6 but seeing this state of flux the Toffees, Foxes and Wolves have all responded with a gross spend of around €100m each, to try and capitalize.
The Fourth Place Trophy is for real! So is the Avoid Relegation Trophy!
The Premier League is the richest league in the world. Survival means a financial windfall. In fact, the promotion game from the Championship to Premier League is now the single most lucrative match in football. Newly promoted from the Championship, Aston Villa took this to heart and responded by being in the Top 10 clubs in Europe for gross transfer spend — and the second-highest in terms of net spend — only behind Real Madrid!
Zen, Kensho…
Liverpool stood out by not participating in the transfer market. They have a skilled and balanced team to challenge for the Premier League title but their squad depth is a worry. To be sure, doing nothing is a valid strategy. Was it a masterstroke or folly? Only time will tell. For now, they seemed to have prioritized harmony and playing time over depth left sitting on the bench.
City have been quite “judicious” by their own free-wheeling standards, but still made the Top 5 spending clubs this season, the bulk of which was for Rodri from Atletico Madrid. This is more than a mere replacement for Fernandinho. It shows how sophisticated Pep has become in this thinking. Rodri with his strength and great passing ability is a multi-purpose enabler. While other clubs are buying players, City are buying pieces which aid systemic improvement, rather than just positional dominance. Guardiola’s City play with mutable and innovative formations. This system requires the recruitment of players who can excel in certain positions but equally also of players who enhance the whole.
On the surface, their transfer strategies standout for their austerity — relative or absolute. Underneath, they are building sophisticated teams which rely on the value of integration, harmony and balance.
Liverpool and City are playing a different game altogether. While other clubs are transferring players into a team, they seem to be truly recruiting for a system.
Huge difference.
The 2019/20 transfer window finished with more talking points that were apparent. A lot of things happened. As usual, Real and Barcelona caught the eye. Yet it was the other end of the spectrum, where Liverpool and City’s approaches truly got the mind thinking.
The summer window had something for everyone. We might have just seen the best transfer window of recent times.
