Problem solving lessons from the World Cup
Identifying what really matters
The World Cup poses a simple yet tough challenge: Win 2 group games and 4 knockout games; and the World Cup is yours. In the immediate time horizon, this challenge translates to a simple aim: win the next game.
To resolve this problem, or any problem for that matter, three things need to be in place:
- Right Frame
- Right Countermeasure
- Right Outcome
So far, we’ve seen some interesting examples of all these in the World Cup.
Problem Framing
It is important to solve the right problem. The World Cup or any competition is kind in this regard. It pre-defines the right problem to solve, as per our statement above.
The task on hand therefore becomes to solve the right problem along the right axes. This involves distilling what is important and focusing on that.
This was amusingly the case in Japan vs Senegal where the coach joked that their players needed to gain 5kg and 5cm to avoid being “out-sized”, and since that could not happen overnight, they had to devise another strategy!
A great example of understanding the “drivers” and solving for them.
Countermeasures
Once the problem is understood, the next step is to devise countermeasures. Iceland vs Argentina provides the best example. The unheralded Icelandic keeper saved a penalty from the legendary Messi. He had done the homework on Messi’s penalty preferences, based on which a countermeasure was devised, that proved to be successful.
A similar situation was seen with Russia. Knowing that they faced the formidable Spanish side, they started with 5 defenders.
“Our transition to this formation [with five defenders] was painful… We had to convince the footballers that it is the only possible option.” — Russian Coach
Contrast this to teams who persisted with game plans that had worked wonderfully for them in the past, but were used in one game too many. In Argentina’s case, a 3-man defense had served the coach well, until the loss to Croatia. Similar for Germany where their standard possession-based approach was outdone by specific countermeasures employed by both South Korea and Mexico.
This provides an important point on devising countermeasures. While some classic hygiene factors apply across all types of problem solving, countermeasures need to be tailored to the problem on hand and the current context.
Outcomes
As a joke is going around:
How many passes does it take to lose a World Cup match? Answer: 1006
In their loss to Russia, Spain made 1006 passes. In one game. This is more than what Russia have done in the last 4 matches! In their group match with Denmark, Peru outnumbered Denmark in terms of shots (17:10) and shots on target (6:3) yet still lost 0–1. Denmark had the most important statistic in its favour: goals scored.
In the World Cup each game represents a problem. The problem is either solved or not. Spain were too busy perfecting the process. Peru had all the right lead indicators. What mattered in the end was just one thing: the final score.
Teams that framed their problems generically, and mechanically went through the motions, are back home now. Teams that are understanding their immediate problem precisely, devising specific countermeasures, and crucially, delivering outcomes that matter, are still in Russia.
If anything, Russia 2018 has served notice to traditional powerhouses. Two did not qualify, the reigning World Champions exited in the first round, in line with the emerging 21st century tradition; Argentina, Spain and European Champions Portugal lasted one round more. Smaller footballing nations on the contrary have played well and some have even progressed beyond expectations.
This World Cup is showing that true problem solving is ultimately about punching above your weight.
When problems are solved, against all odds, through deliberate planning, that is true success.
