When is the earliest a team can win a title or be relegated?
A theoretical answer
A league season fascinates us in different ways. Sometimes it’s a neck-and-neck race that goes to wire — at either end, or both. Other times a team might dominate to such an extent that the question becomes: by how many games to spare will the team win the title? Similarly, at the other end of the table, relegation can be mathematically confirmed with weeks to spare.
So what is the earliest a team can be mathematically confirmed as Champion? Equally, what is the earliest a team can be mathematically relegated? Using a theoretical model, some numbers are crunched to provide an answer.
Mathematical Champions
General Assumptions
Since this is a theoretical model, we need to make some assumptions. The overarching assumption is a 20 team league, where each team plays each other twice, resulting in 38 gameweeks (GW) per team. There are 3 points for a win (W), 1 for a draw (D) and zero for loss (L).
Specific Assumptions
Since our focus is on the winning team, the area of interest is the difference between the winning team and chasing group. The bigger the difference, the earlier the team can mathematically claim victory.
