Tour de France Day 2 Recap: Düsseldorf to Liège
A little something for the sprinters after a rainy ride into Belgium, and another GC crash shakes up podium predictions but not positions
Despite a few surprises, the race today ran by the standard formula for long, mostly flat stages. An early breakaway was permitted and reeled in before the last kilometer; a popular sprinter won a bunch sprint; GC positions remained somewhat stable; and early days jitters led to another big crash on a rainy, rough section of Belgian roads.
I’m Just Here For The Sprinting
The finale was a thrilling conclusion to an otherwise predictable day, with a surprise victory in a very crowded bunch sprint. The four-man breakaway had been reduced to only two men by the last 10k; American Taylor Phinney and Yoann Offredo, at a 55-second advantage.
A little pace-making by Team Sky closed the gap to 30 seconds with 6k to go before the sprint teams took over. Jack Bauer of Quick Step chewed up another 25 seconds, pulling out right at 2k, before Andre Greipel’s Lotto-Soudal train took over, blowing past the two men at 1.1k, and putting Greipel in what could have been a prime position to win the sprint.
It was not to be. Seconds later he’d get boxed in, and a tight zoom locked onto his line showed Peter Sagan, sitting behind Nacer Bouhanni’s lead out man, and followed closely by Bouhanni himself. It was a perfect spot for Bouhanni, but he usually wins with earlier attacks, and can be inconsistent in sprints. Sagan isn’t a pure sprinter, but he is trickier, pluckier, and more tenacious, and I thought he’d win — until the camera panned back and showed Colbrelli passing both Sagan and a just-launched Bouhanni.
The trio were neck-and-neck, but started losing steam quickly; Bouhanni and Sagan fell back and Colbrelli swung past them, revealing a freelancing Mark Kittel, who’d made a brilliant tactical jump onto Colbrelli’s wheel.
Behind Sagan et al a smiling Matteo Trentin raised his arms in victory as Kittel powered over the line, closely followed by Arnaud Demare on his right and a recovered Andre Greipel to his left. It was an emotional moment for Kittel, who has had a rough two years after bouts of stomach virus saw him dropped from Le Tour and his team, despite a really promising debut in 2011.
Return of Marcel Kittel
It’s exciting to see Kittel coming back so strong after his long absence, and this is a great year for it; Mark Cavendish has been sick with glandular fever, and Andre Greipel seems to be riding a little less tactically. Greipel usually seems to tire out before the other sprinters, and considering Cav’s mono, I think the pure sprints will mostly go to Kittel this year.
In this first week of the tour, there are three more sprint days: stage four, six, and seven are all flat, but the first and third will likely be windy. I’ll hedge my bets though and note that Cavendish usually fares poorly in a tight sprint, but managed an impressive fourth today despite the disadvantage. His team should be able to handle the wind on stages four and seven, which may give him an ideally-sized smaller field for those finishes.
What’s Froome Dog Up To?
Crashes can dramatically change the course, especially in the early days of the race. Froome went down after a Katusha rider lost control and slipped, taking out most of Team Sky. Geraint Thomas remained upright along with GC contender Richie Porte, who looked especially skilled as he rode an impressive line right through the carnage. Grand Tours are wars of attrition; although Froome picked himself up and continued after a quick bike change, he clearly injured his lower back, and it may prove a factor as the race develops. French hopeful Romain Bardet fell too, and seems to have injured his knee, but continued to ride without apparent difficulty.
If Froome does have to abandon, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Geraint Thomas win. I don’t know that the winner of stage one has ever won the overall competition, but with crashes and abandonments, anything becomes possible.
I hate to make predictions, but here we go, this is my list of likely winners in order of likelihood:
- Froome
- Porte
- Thomas
- Bardet
I think it’s still Froome’s race to lose, but if he abandons or his injuries slow him down, Porte has a great shot to snatch victory. Geraint Thomas is riding great and has the cycling equivalent of the New York Yankees in Team Sky, but I think Froome would have to turn over leadership to him before the end of this week so he can focus on winning.
I’m always going to hope for a French champion, and Bardet is the shot there; it’s not a likely scenario, but I think the lack of time trials and the smaller but more frequent climbs could suit him in a year where Froome abandons.
My runner-ups would be Contador, Quintana, and Aru, not necessarily in that order. I’d want to see a lot more of each of them before I make any guesses, but I’ll already say that I don’t think Contador or Quintana have much in the tank this year, but I do think Aru could pull a Cadel Evans if we see a late abandonment by Froome and a (not unexpected) lack of grit from Porte and Bardet.
Speaking of Sky: Michael Kwiatkowski recorded the day on Strava, clocking an impressive 50.6 MPH top speed shortly after the crash.
You Didn’t Even Mention The Breakaway!
I did, actually, but it does deserve a little more attention. These things are usually pretty simple; some young guys go for a little camera time and maybe a KOM jersey, and the peloton sweeps them up in the last few kilometers. Today’s break was a little special for a few reasons:
- It involved American rider Taylor Phinney, who is both a solid racer and a good face for American cycling
- The crash. The break would have been caught a lot quicker if not for the dust-up at the 30km mark. Peter Sagan and his Bora-Hansgrohe team (reluctantly!) slowed down the chase effort while they waited for Froome, Bardet, and others to regain position.
Phinney won the King of the Mountain jersey, with a total of two (2!) KOM points from the two category 4 climbs on the course. He’s unlikely to keep it after tomorrow, though, which includes three stage 4 climbs and two stage 3 including the summit finish at Longwy Citadel.
I like Phinney, but was more impressed with Yoann Offredo’s efforts in the break. Offredo was rewarded with the award for most combative, a fitting recognition of how much pace-making he did in the group.
It was a great day of racing all-in-all, but I think tomorrow is going to be a much more exciting day, won by either an early break or a hard effort near the final climb. If I were going to place a bet, it’d be on Sagan, who excels at these short, punchy climbs. The main thing I’ll be looking for tomorrow are signs of weakness from Bardet and Froome, and any sign of life in the other GC contenders.
I’m (attempting) to blog the 2017 TDF each day. This was Stage Two.
Read them all: Stage One, Stage Three, Stage Four
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Can I fit in another (two) plugs? I wrote two bike books for Falcon Guides. They are both good! You can buy them at Amazon and other places, too. Best Bike Rides Connecticut (Amazon) and Best Bike Rides Long Island (Amazon)
