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On the Importance of Bayesian Thinking in Everyday Life
This simple mind-shift will help you better understand the uncertain world around you
Human brains don’t process probabilities very well. We play lotteries but are afraid to board a plane. There are biological underpinnings to this: overestimating small probabilities that would be disastrous should they materialize has helped our ancestors survive. In today’s world, however, being able to think in a statistically sound way is the desired trait. It’s a skill not easy to master, but it opens door to a better understanding of the uncertainty in the surrounding world.
Thinking probabilistically is unnatural
Our brains are simply not programmed to think this way. They are crazy pattern-finding machines that see causality where there is none and make us believe in the version of events that is closest to our biased beliefs about the world. Take the famous Linda problem which I have modified here to stress the effect:
Linda is a young art school graduate, lives in a big city and self-identifies as a left-winger. Which is more probable about Linda:
- She works as a firefighter.
- She works as a firefighter and campaigns for women’s rights.