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On the Importance of Bayesian Thinking in Everyday Life

This simple mind-shift will help you better understand the uncertain world around you

Michał Oleszak
Towards Data Science
15 min readDec 17, 2021

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Human brains don’t process probabilities very well. We play lotteries but are afraid to board a plane. There are biological underpinnings to this: overestimating small probabilities that would be disastrous should they materialize has helped our ancestors survive. In today’s world, however, being able to think in a statistically sound way is the desired trait. It’s a skill not easy to master, but it opens door to a better understanding of the uncertainty in the surrounding world.

Thinking probabilistically is unnatural

Our brains are simply not programmed to think this way. They are crazy pattern-finding machines that see causality where there is none and make us believe in the version of events that is closest to our biased beliefs about the world. Take the famous Linda problem which I have modified here to stress the effect:

Linda is a young art school graduate, lives in a big city and self-identifies as a left-winger. Which is more probable about Linda:
- She works as a firefighter.
- She works as a firefighter and campaigns for women’s rights.

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Towards Data Science
Towards Data Science

Published in Towards Data Science

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Michał Oleszak
Michał Oleszak

Written by Michał Oleszak

ML Engineer & Manager | Top Writer in AI & Statistics | michaloleszak.com | Book 1:1 @ topmate.io/michaloleszak

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