Effect of Climate Change in South Asia
Climate change is a current uproar all over the world. From shifting weather patterns to rising sea levels, the impacts of climate change are unparalleled in scale.
The effects are pretty alarming in Southern Asia as it is home to some of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The region has a significant chunk of the global poor. Their overwhelming dependence on agriculture to earn a living exposes them to the perils of climate change.
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns threaten food production. Increased cyclonic activity and sea-level rise multiply the risk of catastrophic flooding. This region has undergone a 3.3 degree mean annual growth in temperature with a min-max range as 2.7–4.7 degrees, according to IPCC figures. Ongoing sea level rises have already submerged several low-lying islands, hence displacing thousands of people. Bangladesh is one of the first countries to fall prey to climate change. The sea level, temperature, and evaporation are increasing in this nation at an alarming rate. The changes in precipitation and cross-boundary river flows are already beginning to cause drainage congestion. There is a reduction in available freshwater, disturbance of morphological processes, and a higher recurrence of flooding.
Pollution Adding to The Climate Chaos
Two of the planet’s main environmental problems, climate change, and air pollution are two sides of the same coin. They are closely interlinked, and air pollution affects climate change. Thus when addressing air pollution, we also discuss a critical solution to climate change.
Burning fossil fuels releases gases and chemicals into the air, and in a destructive loop, air pollution not only contributes to climate change but is also aggravated by it. Air pollution due to carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases raises the global temperature.
Biomass burnt in the north-eastern regions of our country produces thick haze and smoke. Large industrial cities in north India pollute the air, which often concentrates inside the Ganges Basin. Prevailing westerlies carry aerosols along the southern borders of the steep-faced Tibetan Plateau to eastern India and the Bay of Bengal.
The aerosol is absorbed, resulting in atmospheric heating. The warm air moves upwards, thus increasing the concentration of moisture in the mid-troposphere. This provides positive feedback that stimulates further heating of aerosols. Mercury pollution rate in India is shocking, with approximately 70 tonnes of mercury being packed in the environment per year. One gram of mercury is sufficient to pollute a lake having a surface area of around 20 acres that would harm marine life, which, as a result, would be dangerous to consume.
Rising Mercury Levels
As per the IPCC, the visualized scenario projects that global average surface warming will result in a 4 degrees temperature increase worldwide at the end of the 21st century, relative to the 0.6 degrees rise by the end of the 20th century. In an ominous study of all the eight South-Asian countries, the World Bank warned about steadily rising average annual temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. The analyses identified “hot spots” where the deterioration is expected to be most severe. “Hot spots are characterized by low household consumption, poor road connectivity, limited access to markets, and other development challenges.” In cities like Karachi, higher temperatures are forecast to lower labour productivity and worsen public health, and this contributes to its emergence as a hot spot.
The study also noted that some of the hottest parts of the region have a higher rate of annual temperature rise. From 1950 to 2010, for example, western Afghanistan and southwestern Pakistan have experienced 1 degree Celsius to 3 degrees rise in mercury levels. However, some of the colder countries of the region, like Nepal, will not be sharply affected by rising temperatures. In this scenario, 800 million people stand to be at risk, along with drastically diminishing living conditions.
Sea Level Rise
A rise in the sea level is mainly due to two factors, both of them being related to climate change. The first factor is the thermal expansion of water, where the increasing temperature warms the water bodies, resulting in their expansion. Secondly, the melting of ice sheets and glaciers due to elevated temperatures also adds water to the world’s seas and oceans. However, sea-level rise is not uniform across the globe, and coastal regions have an adverse effect.
The corresponding sea-level rise at the end of the 20th century was 0.18m, and at the end of the 21st century, it would be 0.59m. More recent analysis has predicted sea-level rise of about 1 meter by the year 2100 based on several semi-empirical models. The current situation has already submerged several low-lying islands in the Sundarbans, displacing thousands of people. Himalayan Glaciers are retreating due to a sudden increase in temperature on the Tibetan Plateau. Predictions suggest that the historical city of Thatta and Badin, in Sindh, Pakistan, will be swallowed by the sea within the year 2025, for the sea has already started encroaching 80 acres of land at this region every day.
In October 2019, according to a study published in the journal Nature Communications said that the practical number of people who will be impacted by sea-level rise in the current century is three times higher than the theoretical figures. By the year 2050, roughly 150 million people will be under the water line during high tide, and 300 million people will live in zones with floods.
By the year 2100, the emission scenario will decide these figures, i.e., in a low emission scenario, 140 million people will be underwater during high tide, and 280 million people will face floods. In high emission scenarios, the numbers arrive at 540 million and 640 million, respectively! 70% of these people are estimated to be citizens of 8 countries in Asia, namely China, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines. Large parts of Ho Chi Minh City, Mumbai, Shanghai, Bangkok, and Basra are often inundated.
Environmental Changes
Climate change is the most significant environmental challenge our planet is facing. It has had observable effects on the environment across the globe, like shrinking of glaciers, accelerated sea-level rise, and intense heat waves. The signs of climate change are everywhere, and the South-Asian countries are no exception. Increased landslides and floods impact states such as Assam. Ecological disasters have increased. For instance, the 1998 coral bleaching event that killed off more than 70% of corals in the reef ecosystems off Lakshadweep and the Andamans was brought on by elevated ocean temperatures tied to global warming.
The frequency and power of heatwaves are increasing in India because of climate change. In 2019, the temperature reached 50.6 degrees Celsius, taking the lives of 36 people. Fifteen monkeys died from heatstroke after another group of monkeys prevented them from accessing the closest water source. The high temperatures will impact 23 states in 2020, up from 9 in 2015 and 19 in 2018. Not just day temperature, night temperatures have also increased. 2018 was the country’s sixth hottest year on record, and 11 of its 15 warmest years have occurred since 2004. New Delhi, the country’s capital, broke its record with a high of 48 degrees Celsius.
According to author Wallace-Wells, if mercury shoots up the glass even by a degree, “Cities now home to millions, across India and the Middle East, would become so hot that stepping outside in summer would be a lethal risk.” The number of Indians exposed to heatwaves increased by 200% from 2010 to 2016 and has also affected farm labour productivity. Central and northwestern India fall under the most heatwave affected regions. The eastern coast and Telangana have also been affected by 2500 deaths in 2015. Kerala reported a heatwave in 2016. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology has been advising the government in predicting and mitigating heat waves. The government of Andhra Pradesh, for instance, is creating a Heat Wave Action Plan.
ECONOMIC CRISIS
The effects of climate change are increasing day by day, and no part of the globe is immune to it. However, South Asia could be particularly badly hit, slashing its economy. In a report by the Asian Development Bank(ADB), it is predicted that by 2050, the collective economy of six countries — Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka — will lose an average 1.8% of its annual gross domestic product, rising to 8.8% by 2100. The Maldives, among the six countries cited in the ADB report, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels.
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the predictions relating to global warming made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change occur, climate-related factors could cause India’s GDP to decline by up to 9%. In addition to that, there would be shifting growing seasons for significant crops such as rice, whose production can decrease by 40%. Enough resources are not available in flood-prone areas, which is an increasing concern for the areas which may get submerged. Bangladesh will be losing its coastline, hence affecting the economy, primarily because nearly two-thirds of Bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector, with rice as the single most important product. If no further steps are taken to improve the current conditions, global warming will affect the economy, severely worsening the present issues further.
Climate Change in India and Pakistan will have a disproportionate impact on the more than 400 million poverty struck humans since many depend on natural resources for their food, shelter, and income.
Improvement of the Current Situation
Many concrete steps can be taken to address the threat of climate change. Media can contribute to spreading awareness. Incentives for electric vehicles or public transport can help to curb the impact of the transportation sector. But, our politicians rarely enforce them. Households can be given electricity and slowly phase out LPG. Rainwater can be harvested, and the rivers could be restored to their original flow so that they can bring back the wetlands and the natural ways of silts and nutrients. This would also be beneficial for wildlife. All of these need technologies that can be implemented. The initiatives by the Delhi Metro to switch to solar power- or similar efforts by the Kochi airport-are a step in the right direction, and more such measures should be taken. It is high time these models are taken up by other agents as well. India has promised to cut its emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33–35% by the year 2030.
With the alarming effects of climate change across the globe, it’s high time we buckle up and put in efforts to save our planet, and thus ourselves. We, as individuals, can also strive to spread awareness and take small steps to protect the mother earth from the deteriorating climate. The beauty of the blue planet is that it is self-restoring and self-healing. All we have to do is let Earth be.
