TRACKRECORD DAILY
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TRACKRECORD DAILY

In the Chaos, there are opportunities

Hidden within the sudden increase of price movements lies many opportunities

Market Observation

The Bullish case for Cryptos

Regulators in the US are currently discussing how they should regulate cryptocurrencies which will likely promote the asset class to the masses in a positive light (after all, regulation implies safety right?). However, there are quite a few prominent figures (Elon Musk, Katie Haun) voicing that the US should not regulate the nascent asset class.

DAY AHEAD

US GDP for the 3rd quarter will be released today with expectations at 6.6%, in line with the 2nd quarter’s growth. Federal speakers Williams (current voter, known slight dove), Bostic (current voter, known hawk) and Evans (current voter, known dove) are expected to speak today.

TRADING PLAN

1. Currencies:

WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY

Market movement as of New York Close 29 Sep 2021
  • ECB’s Lagarde predicted that Eurozone economic activity could be back at pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. She stated that the ECB will monitor wage negotiations as inflation expectations have increased although still distant from targets.
  • S&P 500 increased +0.16% on Wednesday amid a calmer Treasury market, although the benchmark index was up +0.8% at session highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased +0.26% while the Nasdaq 100 (-0.12%) and Russell 2000 (-0.2%) closed lower.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose +0.62% to 94.34, signalling a defensive undertone. The JPY showed little reaction to the election of Fumio Kishida as leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which put him on course to become the country’s next prime minister. The yen, the currency most sensitive to U.S. yields as higher rates can attract flows from Japan, touched an 18-month low against a resurgent dollar.
  • US 10-year Treasury Bond yield increased 1 basis point to 1.55% (below yesterday’s high of 1.56%) while the 2-yr yield decreased -1 basis point to 0.30%.
  • The semiconductor stocks held back the technology sector after Micron (MU 71.64, -1.46, -2.0%) issued downside guidance for its fiscal first quarter due to ongoing supply chain disruptions. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 1.5%.
  • Dollar Tree (DLTR 100.51, +14.23, +16.5%) was a prime example of “pricing inflation” with an announcement that it will start selling certain items for $1.25 to $1.50. DLTR shares rallied 16.5%, further supported by plans to increase its share buyback program to $2.5 billion.
  • Boeing (BA 225.36, +6.95, +3.2%), meanwhile, helped lead the Dow higher after the stock was upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein. The firm believes global travel is reaching an inflection point.

HEADLINES & MARKET IMPACT

Democratic disagreements imperil Biden agenda as shutdown looms

Notable Snippet: President Joe Biden’s agenda was at risk of being derailed by divisions among his own Democrats, as moderates voiced anger on Wednesday at the idea of delaying a $1 trillion infrastructure bill ahead of a critical vote to avert a government shutdown.

China seeks to quell power crunch fears, as coal prices soar, winter nears

Notable Snippet: China on Wednesday demanded railway companies and local authorities raise their game in shipping vital coal supplies to utilities, as regions key to the world’s no. 2 economy grapples with power cuts that have crippled industrial output.

U.S., EU agree to work on chip supplies, tech rules, China trade

Notable Snippet: The United States and European Union agreed on Wednesday to deepen transatlantic cooperation to strengthen semiconductor supply chains, curb China’s non-market trade practices and take a more unified approach to regulating big, global technology firms.

SENTIMENT

FX

STOCK INDICES

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