TRACKRECORD DAILY
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TRACKRECORD DAILY

Let the 2nd Quarter begin!

Cryptos such as ETH and BTC continue to trade strongly, as assets which are denominated in fiat currency will continue to do so in the months ahead.

TRADING TIP

The Price Of Too Much Activity

In investing and trading, people often associate constant action with progress and profitability, or at least that is the “guru story” retail folks are being sold. In most fields of work, it is indeed true that there is a correlation between activity and productivity. In addition, since the adoption of the industrial prussian model of education was indoctrinated into the school system, the act of completing tasks releases dopamine (feel good hormones) which leads us to believe this is what it takes to succeed. Hence it is not hard to understand why successful investing and trading is counterintuitive to how modern man is shaped to survive.

WEEK AHEAD

With most markets closed on Monday for the Easter celebrations, it will be a fairly muted week as there’s not a lot on the agenda that can excite markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision will be the main highlight (Tue), but the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Thu) and European Central Bank’s (Thu) previous meetings could stir some reaction too as policymakers tread water so as not to deepen the bond rout. Outside of the central bank sphere, employment numbers out of Canada and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Fri) in the US will be the only notable releases to watch.

TRADING PLAN

1. Currencies : Keep short USD and long NZD, & CNH. USDCNH remains at 6.57+ and is staying above the top end of the 6.45–6.55 range. NZD looks better now that it is trading above 0.7000 again. Stay patient.

WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY

As of New York Close 2 Apr 2021,

  • Financial markets were closed in Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Britain, Europe and the US in observance of the Good Friday holiday.
  • Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 916,000 jobs last month (expected 647,000) the largest gain since last August. Data for February was revised higher to show 468,000 jobs created instead of the previously reported 379,000. The strength in the labour market will continue to boost optimism in the economic recovery and pressure US bond yields higher as markets will worry that the Federal Reserve may have to start raising interest rates sooner than priced.
  • US 10-yr Bond yield increased 3 basis points to 1.72%. The 2-yr yield increased 2 basis points to 0.19%. Sentiment for the Dollar has improved in recent weeks, while Treasury yields have spiked, as the Biden administration’s planned stimulus of more than $2 trillion and a rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollout spurred economic optimism as well as inflation fears.
  • S&P 500 (+1.2%) set intraday and closed record highs on Thursday, topping the 4000 level for the first time, in a relatively broad-based advance. The Nasdaq (+1.8%) and Russell 2000 (+1.5%) outperformed the benchmark index with solid gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) rose modestly.
  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+3.7%) was another pocket of strength after Micron (MU 92.41, +4.20, +4.8%) beat EPS estimates and issued upbeat Q3 guidance and Taiwan Semi (TSM 124.80, +6.52, +5.5%) announced plans to invest $100 billion over three years to expand production capacity.
  • Energy stocks drew additional support from higher oil prices following the OPEC+ policy meeting where the group agreed to cautiously increase output from May through July with Saudi Arabia easing on its extra 1 million barrel/day cut. WTI crude futures settled higher by +3.8%, or $2.22, to $61.41/bbl.

HEADLINES & MARKET IMPACT

Taiwan says European countries helping with submarine project

SENTIMENT

FX

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