TRACKRECORD DAILY
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TRACKRECORD DAILY

My Goldfish could have told me this…

This proves that really, statisticians are generally paid to compile lots of data and then make a random guess.

Trading Tip

Don’t try to sell the top

That is definitely what most people want to do, selling at the top and being the hero who managed to ride the entirety of the trend. But when we are in the midst of riding a trend, we will never know when the top really is.

DAY AHEAD

EU CPI is expected to come in at +3.0% today. The number will help dictate the monetary policy of the ECB and it is important given the calls of tapering by the hawkish members of the ECB from Germany. A weak number will weigh on the EUR.

TRADING PLAN

1. Currencies:

WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY

Market movements as of New York Close 16 Sep 2021
  • US Initial jobless claims came in at 332k (vs 325k expected). The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index also beat expectations at 30.7 (vs 18.7 expected). The better than expected data are signs that the economy continues to grow strongly and that should give confidence to the Federal Reserve reassurance if they should decide to eventually taper their bond buying programme.
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bond rose 3 basis points to 1.34%. The 2-yr bond rose 2 basis points to 0.23.
  • Stronger USD across the board with the USD Index up +0.35% due to stronger economic data increasing the risk of the Fed tapering soon and weaker risk sentiment arising from rising tensions between the Western coalition and China.
  • Stocks finished lower with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones decreasing -0.2%. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 both rose by +0.1%. Despite the better than expected retail sales, the equity market seems to be unaffected and was relatively weak.

HEADLINES & MARKET IMPACT

A paid family leave policy could be coming to the U.S. Here’s what it would look like

Notable Snippet: Legislation moving through Congress would make 12 weeks of paid family and sick leave available to most workers, and remove the U.S. from the small list of countries that are currently without such a policy.

His economic agenda on the line, Biden prepares to fight for tax increases on the wealthy

Notable Snippet: After a rough summer, President Joe Biden is getting ready to spend the autumn fighting for tax increases on the wealthy and corporations.

U.S., Australia and UK unveil new security partnership as China expands its military and influence

Notable Snippet: Prime Ministers Scott Morrison of Australia and Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom joined Biden virtually for the announcement of the partnership.

SENTIMENT

FX

STOCK INDICES

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