TRACKRECORD DAILY
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TRACKRECORD DAILY

The Lull

Expect subdued trading as market now look towards the final month of trading and the focus will be on likelihood of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).

The US stock and bond markets will have an early close on Black Friday. Expect subdued trading as market now look towards the final month of trading and the focus will be on likelihood of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).

Chill and enjoy the weekend.

TRADING PLAN

  1. Gold & Silver — Gold support is at 1780–90. Short term support for Silver is at 22.50–60 while major support is at 21.80–90. Quiet market.

Key risks — Higher US interest rates and a stronger USD remain the main risks for now.

WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY

Market Movements as of New York Close 26 Nov 2020
  • The Dollar Index (+0.04%, 92.03) was near its lowest in more than two months, but moves were subdued due to the U.S. trading holiday. In France and Germany, consumer confidence plunged in November (-6.7 vs expected -4.9) under new lockdown restrictions, challenging the idea of a quick return to normal in the euro zone’s two biggest economies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told parliament that lockdown measures will be in place until at least the end of December and possibly longer.
  • From ECB minutes, policymakers see the possibility that pandemic might have longer-lasting effects that will take a toll on the demand side, supply side, and reduce growth potential. It was stressed that any sign of complacency could be detrimental. In sum, though comments made by ECB members on Thursday did not reveal anything new, they do demonstrate the dilemma faced by the bank ahead of its December monetary policy decision. The members agreed that there was a need to signal the necessity of recalibrating the ECB’s monetary policy instruments when they meet in Dec. The EUR, which last traded $1.1912 (+0.01%), showed little reaction because currency traders have largely priced in expectations for additional ECB easing next month.
  • U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Biden urged Americans to avoid big family gatherings and to wear protective masks and maintain social distancing as COVID-19 cases soar.
  • U.S. S&P 500 e-mini stock futures fell 0.24% in early Asian trade. U.S. financial markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will trade on a partial schedule later on Friday (today).
  • British drugmaker AstraZeneca’s coronavirus drug was touted as a “vaccine for the world” due to its inexpensive cost, but the efficacy of the vaccine is now facing more intense scrutiny, which experts say could delay its approval. Several scientists have raised doubts about the robustness of results showing the shot was 90% effective in a sub-group of trial participants who, by error initially, received a half dose followed by a full dose.The U.S. regulator, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), has not commented on AstraZeneca’s vaccine trial results. The European Medicines Agency said on Thursday it would “assess data on the efficacy and safety of the vaccine in the coming weeks once they have been received from the company”.

HEADLINES:

TRUMP SAYS HE WILL LEAVE WHITE HOUSE IF BIDEN WINS ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will leave the White House if the Electoral College votes for President-elect Joe Biden, the closest he has come to conceding the Nov. 3 election, even as he repeated his unfounded claims of massive voter fraud.

Asked if he would leave the White House if the Electoral College votes for Biden, Trump said: “Certainly I will. Certainly I will. And you know that.”

“But I think that there will be a lot of things happening between now and the 20th of January. A lot of things,” he said. “Massive fraud has been found. We’re like a third world country.”

A THIRD OF ENGLAND FACE TOUGHEST COVID CURBS, LONDON SPARED FOR NOW

More than 20 million people across large swathes of England will be forced to live under the toughest category of COVID-19 restrictions when a national lockdown ends on Dec. 2, while London was placed in the “high alert” second-toughest tier.

Britain has Europe’s highest official death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic and has been hit hard by a second wave. The government’s response on lockdown rules, procurement and testing has been criticised as disjointed, expensive and slow.

“We must follow these new rules and make sure that our actions today will save lives in future and help get our country through this,” Hancock said.

Thematic Context: “As stimulus effects wane off due to the lack of motivation to print, mainstreet economic woes floats back to the forefront. In our opinion, nothing has changed on mainstreet, jobless rates have been as high during the risk rally as it is now, but without the wealth creation effect in markets, problems suddenly seem bigger. As we have been saying, either the government prints the money, or it will be forced out of their hands via magnification of social and economic woes.” — 26th Nov 2020

BERLIN PLANS SIX VAST COVID-19 VACCINATION CENTRES HANDLING 4,000 PEOPLE A DAY

Germany appears to be the furthest ahead of European nations in its planning for the daunting logistical and administrative challenge that could be just a few weeks away if the first vaccines gain approval.

Europe’s drug watchdog expects to receive the first application for conditional marketing approval for a COVID-19 vaccine “in the coming days”, it said on Thursday, the latest step towards making a shot available outside the United States.

Health Minister Jens Spahn said Germany has secured around 300 million vaccine doses. Other German states have said vaccination centres will be ready from mid-December and mobile teams will inoculate the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere in Europe, preparations appear mixed.

Thematic Context: “Given the state of the virus situation, vaccine news and development will have an amplified effect on risk assets as the pandemic is in a state of “necessity”. Necessity that something be done, be it a 1. Vaccine Rollout or 2. Lockdown. The former is bullish for Industrials, Cyclicals and Energy, the latter should cause a macro dislocation initially with a selloff which we believe begets a faster response from the Fed and Government. The former seems to be a more palatable option for governments and we believe they will do what they can to achieve that.” — 26th Nov 2020

DAY AHEAD

There are no notable dataprints today, risk will continue to be driven by virus situation, and vaccine development.

SENTIMENT

FX

STOCK INDICES

Trading Tip (click to read more)

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Best,
Phan Vee Leung
CIO & Founder, TrackRecord

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