EURUSD Market Insight, June 22, 2023:
My volume-centric Model 9 forecasts a short-term bearish market suggesting that the USD remains robust. The model presents two disparate price predictions, reflecting normal price range from $1.044 to $1.0733 for the EURUSD pair. The current price prediction, which falls below the fair price yet above the average price prediction, insinuates a potential bullish market trend.
In parallel, Model 7, which I deploy to predict price direction, denotes a prevailing bullish trend. The model’s price prediction is $1.12809, a moderate-term price target I’ve adopted.
The Confidence Level Intangibles Model (CLIM) suggests a bullish trading bias, with a 60% confidence level.
From a fundamental standpoint, the Federal Reserve (FED) maintained its hawkish stance despite the absence of a recent interest rate hike. The European Central Bank (ECB), on the other hand, opted to increase their interest rates in an ongoing effort to tame high inflation.
Following these developments, the USD demonstrated resilience, and inflation is on a downtrend, despite whispers of a potential recession in the stock market and a rise in U.S. consumer sentiment. These factors collectively hint at a bearish market atmosphere.
The Euro, though still grappling with inflation and economic challenges, retains its bullish inclination. In light of these factors, it seems that the mixed market sentiment, slightly tilted towards bearishness, is an accurate reflection of current conditions, with high volatility expected in the coming days.
With gold prices hovering around $1900.00, it bolsters the assertion that the Euro is likely to appreciate towards the prescribed price target.
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