The Continuation of COVID and the Impact on Jobs in Australia
Take yourself back to the beginning of 2020 — it was a time of hope as a new year rolled around. While some people chased down their dream jobs, others started a business and wanted to push towards a brighter future for not only themselves but for their families too. Within just a couple of months, news started to break of a virus outbreak in China.
At first, it was a sad story in a distant country. Sad, sure, but not likely to affect our own lives. Then, cases started to spread. The news came in regarding so-called COVID-19 cases in other countries. Even when it landed in Australia, not many people thought that it would lead to multiple lockdowns, 18 months of uncertainty, and more time at home than could ever be thought possible.
On August 11th, government officials announced that Melbourne would remain in lockdown for a second week after 20 positive Delta variant cases were reported. While some have just accepted that short lockdowns could be a part of normal life now, others have taken to the streets to protest. Those in Melbourne saw out this latest lockdown, but rumors of another continue to circle as over 70 cases are reported.
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Of course, one of the biggest side effects of these many lockdowns is the inability to work for many Australians. With stay-at-home orders in force, some businesses simply cannot open while others are having to operate online. What does this mean for jobs? Let’s explore this very question!
No Jab, No Job
First, it’s important to start with the news that surfaced recently regarding vaccination rules in New South Wales. Lawmakers and other figures in power are desperate to get the Australian and local economies moving once again, but this is proving difficult with various lockdowns and restrictions. Therefore, New South Wales is taking a strong approach to get the construction industry moving once again. The rules are simple — workers can return to their construction jobs, but only if they have the jab.
If we look at the fuller picture, many other countries have suffered worse than Australia. Not only have COVID cases remained low, but the number of people who have died from the virus is still below 1,000. To put this into perspective, the UK has sadly experienced 132,000 deaths.
One of the biggest problems for lawmakers is that less than one in four people in Australia are fully vaccinated. To compare with the UK again, this same percentage is nearly 65%. While many Australians are fighting against the many stop-start lockdowns, they’re also not getting the vaccinations, and this is the dilemma that industry leaders and the government faces.
According to both state and federal governments, lockdowns are likely to end once seven in ten people have the vaccination. Until then, New South Wales will likely stick with the ‘no jab, no job’ policy, and others could follow in their footsteps.
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The Job Market
With all this information in mind, how has the labor market fared overall? Well, the news may not be as bad as initially feared. 2021 was always going to be a year of recovery, and we’re now on a record run of job advertisements. In June alone, the number of job advertisements made public increased by 3% (this comes after a nearly 7% increase in May). Despite lockdowns across the country, June and July saw labor demand go up.
Last summer, the country was in a severe situation with a national lockdown and the world in turmoil. However, Australia seems to have recovered its job market much faster than many other countries. June’s jump in job ads means that job advertisements have grown for 13 consecutive months. What’s more, there was a 130% increase in job ads in June 2021 compared to June 2020.
According to Catherine Birch, senior economist at ANZ, lots of people either left their jobs or were laid off during the national lockdown. However, these same workers aren’t having difficulties getting back into the working world once restrictions disappear. Australia is fortunate enough to have strong overall demand as well as a strongly performing labor market. With this as a foundation, it’s helping people back into jobs as the country continues to recover from the virus.
In terms of vacancies, these are not just higher for COVID times but impressive for ordinary times too. According to official government figures, the number of vacancies from May to August increased by 23%. With 1.9 unemployed people per vacancy, vacancies now are twice what they were before the pandemic and the ratio is one of the lowest ever recorded.
While policymakers expected unemployment to fall slowly, this couldn’t have been further from reality. Last July, unemployment peaked at 7.5% as some businesses were forced to close their doors forever. In April, the percentage sat at just over 5%. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia aims to get the unemployment rate below 4% since this will allow for a boost in wages.
Ultimately, one word can describe the job market in Australia in 2021 — resilient. In the middle of the national lockdown, with no end in sight, it was a miserable time for employment. While some employees started to work from home, others weren’t as lucky and were laid off instead. Resilience has allowed the job market to bounce back and employees to find new workplaces.
It will be interesting to see how many other states and cities introduce similar rules to those seen in New South Wales. While vaccination rates are low, will workers need to get jabbed before they get a job?
Australia’s Wage Subsidy Program
One reason why Australia has managed to bounce back in terms of the job market comes in the shape of JobKeeper, the nation’s wage subsidy stimulus package. For many months, the government’s program kept workers in jobs during lockdowns and closures. However, it came at a heavy cost. According to some reports, the price of the program reached 5% of GDP (around $90 billion).
Back in March, this program came to an end and the impact of this change is yet to be seen. Some leading figures are worried about the state of the job market, and the Treasury predicted that 150,000 people would lose their jobs. With businesses losing support from the program, they can no longer afford to keep employees.
What’s more, the Treasury also says that some businesses will fail to make it through these tough times without the program. If the country is to reach the 4% unemployment rate, the end of this program could be the key determinant. So far, it’s too early to tell the impact of the change, but some predictions suggest that unemployment could rise back up to 7%.
Most-Needed Jobs
To summarize all the information in this guide so far, leaders in the country are hopeful about the job market given the fall in unemployment and the rise in job ads and vacancies. However, a couple of factors could inhibit future performance. For example, the fact that construction workers in New South Wales need a vaccination before they can work on a site. Furthermore, the end of the wage subsidy program could determine the state of the job market over the next twelve months.
Regardless of what happens in the wider picture, some industries are desperate for new workers. Although it won’t come as a surprise, the most-needed job in Australia in 2021 is nursing. With the pandemic continuing to affect the health of many, the nursing niche is always looking for people to join the battle. While experienced medical professionals have been pulled into new positions, it has created gaps for others.
Additionally, the pandemic also encouraged people to start shopping online. As well as groceries, Australians ordered products for entertainment during the stay-at-home orders. This includes jigsaw puzzles, gadgets, devices, games consoles, and more — as expected, Amazon was a big winner during this period. To deal with all the extra parcel traffic, workers are needed in warehousing, storage, and distribution.
As time goes on, more people are also needed to support the elderly and disabled. Other emerging fields include:
- Automotive trades
- Sales consultants
- Admin assistants
- Chefs
- Physiotherapists
- Childcare specialists
- Retail assistants
- Laborers
What can we learn? In 2021, and for some time, the most in-demand roles will be decided by the pandemic. For instance, the medical world needs more nurses to cope with the new demand (as well as existing nurses leaving the profession due to stress). If you’re looking for jobs, pay attention to these fields. If you’re interested in the Australian economy, time will tell how much the end of the wage subsidy program affects the country.
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The good news is that vacancies and job ads are both rising, and Australia seems to have solid foundations to keep bouncing back as COVID continues to become a normal feature in our lives.
