“I’m doing all right, getting good grades…”​

(From Status Quo’s famous song, “The Future’s So Bright (I Gotta Wear Shades)”)

The future's so bright I gotta wear shades
I gotta wear shades, I gotta wear shades
Gotta wear shades, got to wear shades
I'm heavenly blessed and worldy wise
I'm a peeping tom techy with x-ray eyes.....

I think at this time, we all wish we were a “peeping tom techy” who could visualize the future, but the good news is that humankind has been through several pandemics, disasters, and more. Even though the current COVID-19 situation is challenging — with deaths, infections, global lock-downs and a huge hit to the global economy — there are positive aspects out there. For example, there is recovery in some of the infected patients, billions of N95 masks being produced and auto manufacturing facilities being re-purposed to build ventilators.

So is the future so bright that we gotta wear shades? IMF states that global economy has entered a recession — however, “IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the 189-nation lending agency was forecasting a recovery in 2021, saying it could be a “sizable rebound.” But she said this would only occur if nations succeed in containing the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and limiting its economic damage”.

Interestingly, I had a chance to read a 20 year old article by McKinsey titled “Strategy under Uncertainty” recently (thanks @AmritSinha), which I thought was very appropriate given the current situation. In the article, the authors describe four levels of uncertainty, ranging from “clear enough future” to “true uncertainty”.

From my understanding of their framework, I would say we are currently at Level 3 as described by the authors: “The analysis in level three is similar to that in level two: a set of scenarios describing alternative future outcomes must be identified, and analysis should focus on the trigger events indicating that the market is moving toward one or another scenario. Developing a meaningful set of scenarios, however, is less straightforward in level three. Scenarios that describe the extreme points in the range of possible outcomes are often relatively easy to develop but rarely provide much concrete guidance for current strategic decisions. Since there are no other natural discrete scenarios in level three, deciding which possible outcomes should be fully developed into alternative scenarios is a real art”.

Yes, I know, that’s really comforting…global economy is entering into a recession, and there is no concrete way to develop scenarios for possible outcomes at this time…

So why wear shades?

The optimism comes from an interesting article in @InnovationExcellence, which talks about 3 possible effects of the current COVID-19 crisis.

(Update: In addition, if interested, please read about the short-term and long-term scenarios postulated by @JoePinsker in #TheAtlantic: “Also in a month or two, public-health authorities and researchers will likely have a better sense of whether those who recover from an infection are immune to future infections, and if so, for how long. That information will come in handy for containment efforts”).

Please read the full Innovation Excellence article for more details, but paraphrasing, they are:

1. Behavior will be changed forever — we are seeing an example of this in our work environment, where clients who wanted all their teams co-located are now realizing the efficiencies and possibility of the work from home option. “It opens the door for new and replacement behaviors, and hence innovation. It’s complicated, as there will be confounding effects pulling behavior in different directions as we slowly return to a new normal. For example, there will be a strong pull to return to comfortable, familiar patterns of behavior. Moreover, there may be a pronounced flight to the familiar, as people actively seek psychological safety in nostalgia, and in behaviors and products that hark back to more emotionally comfortable times. However, some behaviors will also have changed forever. And the longer this goes on, the more new habits will be created”.
2. Looking to the future (so gotta wear shades): Of course there is a lot to be learned from past experiences, but the astute will look for new opportunities. Has the new environment created new opportunities or ecosystems, and how can one provide services to the key players of that ecosystem? “How can we leverage the opportunities for trial and openness to new experience created by new behaviors, new financial realities and broken habits. There will ultimately be lessons we can learn, especially if we generalize sufficiently, but it’s unlikely to help us recover, take advantage of the post crisis reality, or help people recover”.
3. Learn from the hard experiences: Our personal and professional lives have been upended like never before. However, this has resulted in adaptation and resilience. (see pre-COVID article on “Why is everyone suddenly talking about Grit?”) These experiences are to be captured, analyzed and put in practice for future enhancements. “Natural leaders will have emerged, and creative and innovative thinkers given unprecedented opportunities to shine. Stress can depress creativity, until we reach a tipping point of nothing left to lose, when it often shines”.

I’m hoping that as governments around the world starting taking containment measures and classical Keynesian steps to kick-start the economy, chances are there will be a gradual recovery…and that’s where it starts becoming brighter for those who have done their homework…

…and that’s time to bring out the shades! #BePositive.