Which coin will go up or down?

Which coins will go up and which coin will go down? It’s very hard to answer that (if it was easy we’d all be millionaires!)— but its instructive to ask people who are new to crypto which coins they are buying and what’s their portfolio allocation.

Narrative machine

From Genesis block:

The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks

Into creating a bank in 10 years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-12/binance-backs-plan-for-bank-in-malta-with-digital-coin-investors

https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/ING_International_Survey_Mobile_Banking_2018.pdf
https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/ING_International_Survey_Mobile_Banking_2018.pdf

Institutional investments

Source: Greyscale report

Easy math — let’s take USA. It’s gone from 8% ownership to 21% ownership — an increase of about 2.5x.

And another thing: Bitcoin dominance to 63% from its current market dominance of 49% — a 1.28x increase.

Doing the math:

Current price: $8 170

Price after allocation changes: $26 364

Not an investment advice!

Bitcoin 51% attack

Say Bitcoin will finally grow into 51% marketcap dominance
(current value: Bitcoin Dominance: 49.48% from OnChainFX)

Also most people buying crypto will be buying Bitcoin (even if they will buy another crypto usually they will still have exposure to bitcoin via btc-altcoin orderbook)

What will happen?

Bitcoin will further increase it’s dominance because of the flow of altcoins -> Bitcoin will be greater then in reverse.

Let’s say you have diversified portfolio that’s tracking beta (Crypto20 does a good job at that)

You are losing money on BTC basis!

The real question:

Which narrative will win most % marketshare?

  • Currencies
  • Permissioned chains (“blockchain not bitcoin”)
  • Privacy
  • Dapp platforms
  • Dapps
  • DEXes
  • Interoperability
  • Security tokens / Stable coins / Exchange tokens / Equity
  • Bonded curves and DAO