Diplomacy Remains Best Way Forward in North Korea
Out of sight, out of mind?
These days, it’s hard to keep up: Russian interference, trade wars, fake news, ALL-CAPS tweets at Iran… a potential disaster seems to lie around every turn. So it’s okay to feel just a little bit of relief at the thought that, at least for now, we don’t seem to be sitting on the precipice of nuclear war with North Korea.
Of course, no problems have been solved. At this point, the only certainty between Kim and Trump seems to be that there is no certainty. Just the past week has been enough to give anyone whiplash.
First, 38 North reported that the Kim regime has begun dismantling key facilities at its main satellite launch site at Sohae. The development seems to be a positive sign for diplomatic relations, despite Secretary Pompeo’s relatively disastrous visit in July. However, it doesn’t represent a major step toward denuclearization given that U.S. intelligence agencies have said that the move is easily reversed, and it’s not clear that North Korea needs the site anyway.
Then, just a few days later, a U.S. intelligence assessment suggested that North Korea has increased its production of nuclear materials at multiple secret sites in recent months; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo then confirmed this at a hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Finally, this week, reports emerged that North Korea is building one or maybe even two new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) able to reach the United States at a research facility outside of Pyongyang. The estimate would seem to suggest that Trump’s proclamation that, post-Singapore, there is “no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea” couldn’t be further from the truth.
And a number of analysts agree. Experts have been quick to judge Kim’s confidence-building measures — such as the dismantling at Sohae and the return of potential remains of Americans from the Korean War — as nothing more than masterful manipulation. Rather than offer any major concessions, Kim has so far tended to give up just enough, at just the right time, to keep Trump off his back and his nuclear program chugging along.
The assessment isn’t entirely unfair. It seems likely that North Korea has no intention of pursuing complete denuclearization; after all, according to U.S. intelligence, North Korean officials have discussed ways in which to conceal the size of Pyongyang’s nuclear stockpile. In a world where even U.S. allies have begun to lose confidence, Trump’s “Rocket Man” might be forgiven for calculating that disarmament might not be a prudent move. The president, unfortunately, is not doing this justification any favors: In Helsinki alone, Trump provided greater rationale for Kim to keep his weapons than he ever has to lose them by demonstrating that a country in possession of nuclear weapons has greater legitimacy on the world stage.
Yet, as Kim continues to actively pursue improved relations with not just the United States, but South Korea, we must not take for granted the fact that an opportunity exists to pursue pragmatic change that might pull the North into a more responsible nuclear fold. If the North continues to engage constructively, the United States has the opportunity to push forward progress on a number of agenda items, which, in turn, might help build momentum toward eventual reconciliation and normalization of relations and provide a hedge against the breakdown of nuclear talks. These agenda items might include additional confidence-building measures, which help to ease tensions and reduce the risk of stumbling into a war, steps toward verification of North Korea’s existing nuclear sites, and even a possible reduction in North Korea’s conventional military capabilities.
One of the greatest dangers to the United States from North Korea today, if there is a real danger, may lie in the face of rising tensions. If North Korea changes course and returns to provocation, Trump could feel so slighted by the move as to think he has no choice but to respond.
As it stands, the United States is engaged in the hard work of diplomacy — and not without reward. We should all welcome a peaceful limp toward progress, however slow, over Trump’s fiery fury. And we should give negotiations the time and space they need to succeed.
Laicie Heeley is the Editor and CEO of Inkstick Media, host of the podcast “Things That Go Boom” with Public Radio International, and Political Partner with Truman National Security Project. Views expressed are her own.
