89. INTELLIGENCE — B

David Robson is a senior journalist at BBC Future. He wrote an article that is part of a BBC Future series about the long view of humanity, which aims to stand back from the daily news cycle and widen the lens of our current place in time. His research and findings raise important issues about the state of our intelligence. Robson explores what the state of our intelligence means for not only being what our potential calls us to be, but also the future of our civilization. This post and the previous post draw heavily from his article and will point to some implications of Robson’s work.

Psychologist Robert Sternberg in a special issue of the Journal of Intelligence wrote, “People are probably better at figuring out complex cell phones and other technological innovations than they would have been at the turn of the 20th Century. But in terms of our behavior as a society, are you impressed with what 30 points has brought us? … Higher IQs have not brought with them solutions to any of the world’s or the country’s major problems — rising income disparities, widespread poverty, climate change, pollution, violence, deaths by opioid poisoning, among others.”

Robson thinks that Sternberg may be a little too pessimistic. For example: “Medicine has made huge strides in reducing problems like infant mortality and while extreme poverty is by no means solved, it has declined globally. That’s not to mention the enormous benefits of scientific technological advances that have, of course, relied on an intelligent workforce.”

However, “in the same way that different physical exercises may build different muscles — without increasing overall ‘fitness’ — we have been exercising certain kinds of abstract thinking, but that hasn’t necessarily improved all cognitive skills equally. And some of those other, less well-cultivated, abilities could be essential for improving the world in the future.”

“When researchers such as Sternberg discuss creativity, they are not just talking about artistic expression, but more grounded skills. How easily can you generate novel solutions to a problem? And how good is your ‘counterfactual thinking’ — the ability to consider hypothetical scenarios that haven’t yet come to pass.” We do not see a rise in some measures of individual creative thinking as our IQs have increased.

“Then there’s the question of rationality — how well you can make optimal decisions, by weighing up evidence and discounting irrelevant information. You might assume that the more intelligent you are, the more rational you are, but it’s not quite this simple.”

“Consider the abundant literature on our cognitive biases. Something that is presented as ‘95% fat-free’ sounds healthier than ‘5% fat’, for instance — a phenomenon known as the framing bias. It is now clear that a high IQ does little to help you avoid this kind of flaw, meaning that even the smartest people can be swayed by misleading messages.

“People with high IQs are also just as susceptible to the confirmation bias — our tendency to only consider the information that supports our pre-existing opinions, while ignoring facts that might contradict our views.”

“Nor can a high IQ protect you from the sunk cost bias — the tendency to throw more resources into a failing project, even if it would be better to cut your losses — a serious issue in any business. (This was, famously, the bias that led the British and French governments to continue funding Concorde planes, despite increasing evidence that it would be a commercial disaster.)

“Highly intelligent people are also not much better at tests of ‘temporal discounting’, [delayed gratification] which require you to forgo short-term gains for greater long-term benefits. That’s essential, if you want to ensure your comfort for the future.

“Besides a resistance to these kinds of biases, there are also more general critical thinking skills — such as the capacity to challenge your assumptions, identify missing information, and look for alternative explanations for events before drawing conclusions. These are crucial to good thinking, but they do not correlate very strongly with IQ, and do not necessarily come with higher education. One study in the USA found almost no improvement in critical thinking throughout people’s degrees.”

“A lack of rationality and critical thinking can explain why financial fraud is still commonplace, and the reason that millions of people dish out money on quack medicines or take unnecessary health risks. … For our society, it can lead to medical errors and miscarriages of justice. … It is also contributing to the spread of fake news, and the huge political polarization on issues like climate change — preventing us from finding an agreed solution before it is too late.”

“Considering the sweep of human history to date, then, we can see how our brains grew to live in increasingly complex societies. And modern life, while allowing us to think more abstractly, does not appear to have corrected our irrational tendencies. We have assumed that smart people naturally absorb good decision making as they go through life — but it is now clear that is not the case.”

“The potential drop in IQs should certainly cause us to take stock of the ways we are using our brains, and preventing any further decline should undoubtedly be a priority for the future. But we might also make a more concerted and deliberate effort to improve those other essential skills too that do not necessarily come with a higher IQ.

“We now know that this kind of thinking can be taught — but it needs deliberate and careful instruction. … But why not teach these skills in early education? Wändi Bruine de Bruin … and colleagues have shown that discussions of decision-making errors can be incorporated in the history curriculum of high school students. … Not only did it improve their performance of a subsequent test of rationality; it also boosted their learning of the historical facts too.

“Others have attempted to revitalize the teaching of critical thinking in schools and universities — for instance, a discussion of common conspiracy theories teaches students the principles of good reasoning, such as how to identify common logical fallacies and how to weigh up evidence. Having taken those lessons, the students appear to be more skeptical of misinformation in general — including fake news.

“These successes are just a small indication of what can be done, if rationality and critical thinking are given the same kind of respect we have traditionally afforded our other cognitive abilities. … The temporary blip in our IQ scores need not represent the end of an intellectual golden age — but its beginning.”

Q: What are you doing to enhance your intelligence?