Monday Crypto Market Outlook
November 18, 2019
The Rundown
As noted before in the last Monday Crypto Market Outlook, BTC’s 100D SMA has breached the 200D SMA a day ago indicating a potential long term bear market that could last for a few months. If history does or does not repeat itself, it surely does tend to rhyme. We saw the 100D SMA stay under the 200D SMA for about a year until we broke out this past May. The previous 100D SMA breaching the 200D also lasted for about a year. So don’t expect another bull run until next year after the halving event where 6.25 BTC will be created every 10 minutes.
To briefly touch on the TA’s for BTC, the indicators MFI and the MACD (which are my favorite indicators for BTC) are in bearish territory with the MFI still flirting on the 20 level with more room for it to nosedive lower. The MACD on the other hand, looks a tad bit oversold at the -65 level. But to mirror the MFI, the MACD line still has plenty of space to dive down to the -100 level anytime.
If we continue down this downward channel starting from June, look for a swing trade opp at the 7000 level for quick gains. But the question becomes how long will BTC’s price continue in this downward channel?
For the week, BTC is down about 4% with the other alts in the same negative range of -1% to -6%. XRP was the loser this week but a bullish breakout could be imminent. XRP has been a long-hated coin amongst crypto enthusiasts for being basically a centralized protocol. But to dive further, adoption amongst several large banks including my former employer, PNC, has been a big push for them as they continue to use their $500m strategy to bring XRP into the mainstream. XRP has been in a 10cents trading range since July and its Moving Averages are currently in a tangled weaving pattern which portrays uncertainty in price. If XRP can make a push towards the $0.32 range, I would be hopeful for a breakout past that level.
Now to pivot to things out here in China, we saw Alibaba once again smashing records on Singles’ Day with a redonkulous $38B in sales. What economic slump are our media outlets talking about? If anything the slump is in HK as unemployment potentially reaching 3.5% in the near term. But to mention Alibaba again, it’s interesting to see how flip flopish bitcoin is here in China. At one moment, we have news stating Alibaba and Bitcoin rewards app, App Lolli, working together on marketing promotions for Singles Day, and the next moment you have Alibaba disclaiming these notions on the basis of the CPC’s attitude towards BTC. But is China really against BTC? Didn’t the Chinese state run Xinhua news agency recently come out with a report praising BTC? As with a lot of things, we don’t know what we don’t know. But here are…
Three things to know
1. For those who still find it hard to believe, Bitcoin is 10 years old. And as a technology, 10 years in a long time. As reported, a large army of Bitcoin developers are working to test new upgrades and scaling capabilities with the #1 cryptocurrency. Specifically, they are testing the ‘Bitcoin Improvement Proposals” to usher in a new era for Bitcoin in increased privacy and mass adoption.
2. Out of all the state’s Wyoming is making headwaves in the crypto world by allowing crypto companies to somehow bypass NYC’s notoriously strict BitLicense through chartering Special Purpose Depository Institutions (SPDIs).
3. As foresighted from the early Bitcoin adopters, the central banks doomsday will eventually come. And in the case in Iran, that day probably has come already with protestors setting a branch of one of Iran’s Central Bank on fire in Behbahan.
Chart of the Week
As illustrated on a previous post, the logarithmic chart for Bitcoin clearly shows an ascending channel towards the moon. But before we get to the moon, if we take what I mentioned above earlier regarding the downward sentiment and a closer view of that logarithmic chart of Bitcoin in the ascending channel, the bottom resistance of that channel could also act as support in the near term. That would enable bitcoin to sell off down to the 7700 level before bouncing back up.
