Monday Crypto Market Outlook
December 9, 2019
The Rundown
As suggested before in previous posts, the 7000 level will be an interesting price level to watch in the upcoming weeks. Since acting as support back near the end of November, BTC has swung to the upside now hovering around the 7400 level with the MFI about to crack the 80 level. It’s actually been awhile since the MFI has shown a breakthrough of the 80 level, with the last being on August 6th during the summer (back when the 50D and 100D SMAs were still above the 200D).
This was also back when BTC was above the Ichimoku on the weekly…
It’s imminent that BTC is going to be under the clouds for the next few weeks, but the question does become, how low can BTC go? I am still sticking with my prediction that 5000 will be the major support level (ala 200W MA) before BTC starts a parabolic curve to the upside in anticipation for the next halving. Although yes I would agree, price action in the short-intermediate term after the halving might be stale (as supported by Pomp), the end of 2020 should at least see BTC pierce its historical high of around 20k. Another question that would be viable to investigate is if BTC prices have already priced in the halving event and its implications on mining costs. I would probably lean at least towards the camp of miners already anticipating its effect on their production.
As we draw closer to the end of 2019, does the Santa Claus rally have the power to spill over to the crypto markets? It’s been interesting to see the divergence of price action between BTC and the S&P, which got a major boost last week from a strong US jobs market (silencing critics of a 2020 recession). I think a real catalyst that will probably not happen by the end of this year, is a trade deal between the US and China. Until this happens, I would expect the crypto markets and the traditional markets to continue its recent performance momentum.
To pivot towards the alts for a bit, besides BTC posting a flat week, all the other major alts produced the same result with the exception of XRP hitting a 3% gain and DASH going the opposite with a 4% drop. Ripple, the native platform of XRP, continues its back and forth battle with its plaintiffs over questions if XRP is or is not a security. But despite, 2019 being a rough year of XRP, institutional welcoming of Ripple could be a good sign going forwards to 2020.
Three things to know
1. Last week the first crypto wallet took flight into space and onto the ISS where it will act as the first active bitcoin node. Thanks for the team at SpaceChain, having BTC reaching moon is now getting closer and closer.
2. The Bank of China, has so far issued $2.8 billion in bonds to blockchain related firms using their own blockchain bond issuance ledger system. The blockchain push in China is real despite the reports of regulatory restrictions.
3. The New York Digital Investment Group has received approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to offer institutional investors shares of a new fund focused on bitcoin futures. But when will a retail BTC ETF come to market?
