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Peter Miles
UK Politics | LGBT+ Politics | Wants Armando Ianucci to come back

Will Corbyn Continue to Win?

Labour is currently in its second leadership campaign within 12 months, with Owen Smith challenging incumbent leader Jeremy Corbyn. Will I slate Owen Smith? Will Jeremy Corbyn get a literary pie to the face? Who knows, because no-one truly seems viable at the moment.

For the past year, Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party has turned it inside out, culminating in the leadership challenge of 2016 following the EU Referendum result. I think for many, this was totally unsurprising. Unfortunately, in a plot worthy of Armanda Ianucci’s comedic ability, the challenge hasn’t exactly been the most expertly choreographed affair and considering recent polling, I suspect we will see the challenge come about unsuccessfully and Corbyn remaining leader of Labour.

But, why? How did he get there? Should he be there? Do we need to call a fireman to get him down?

The 2015 General Election saw Labour trounced in Scotland and mild haemorrhaging of support in traditional heartlands across England and Wales. I won’t dwell on Labour in Scotland because I believe that to be a different kettle of fish to the issues facing Labour in the other nations (because, SNP). Ed Milibands leadership was one that failed to satisfy on many fronts: criticisms abounded from being too left wing, not left wing enough, lack of economic competency and a lack of leadership qualities expected from Ed Miliband.

Personally, the latter criticism was the one that stuck the most for me, I liked Miliband as a person but he seemed too uncertain of the platform he stood on and the policies so bound in caution and qualification that it didn’t inspire confidence. But I distinctly remember in 2013 when he announced a freeze on gas and electricity prices and in the election campaign, his stance on removing non-dom status: Labour soared in the polls and I felt like there was something promising that I wasn’t letting myself see.

But unfortunately, that dynamism fell away to a lacklustre campaign. Shrouded by the spectre of Blair and Brown’s government, an uninspiring economic policy attacked as being austerity-lite and totally unwilling to challenge the narrative that the last Labour government somehow caused the global economic crash. All of this would not have been enough to bring back the left wing activists and members that began falling away due to the Iraq War and lacked faith in the New Labour programme. The prospect of 5 years more of Conservative austerity, the dismantling of the welfare state in the name of deficit reduction, the DWPs assault on the disabled, job instability through major expansion of zero-hour contracts was, and is, depressing. But this is the anti-austerity narrative promoted by centre-left parties like the Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru and one that many thought that Labour, nominally of the left, should be championing. This was a perfect maelstrom of dissatisfaction on the left that was asking for someone to stand up and make the case. And that person ended up being Jeremy Corbyn.

“We decided somebody should put their hat in the ring in order to promote that debate. And, unfortunately, it’s my hat in the ring.”

One year later, he got that job and here we are now. His campaign revealed him to the country as a manhole-loving, vegetarian, 2 E’s at A Level tee-total pacifist with a commitment to honest politics, unspun and with a commitment to addressing inequality throughout the country. Quite endearing really and totally unlike any of his competitors or recent predecessors.

It is this, perhaps unexpected formula, that has now bound Jeremy Corbyn to the anti-austerity narrative of the general election which now seems inseparable to many supporters. It explains why many outside the party are so fervent in seeing him stay put because there is the belief that the PLP cannot be trusted to put forward a candidate because inevitably, they’re associated with militarised intervention, tend too closely to the right, Pro-Trident and stage-managed PR: essentially, anything associated with New Labour is baggage. Corbyn offered himself as the complete opposite of all of that, an anti-establishment man of the left. The challenge present to any opponent is astronomical, considering a significant portion of the PLP well have some kind of connection to one of those ideas. Many MPs that could still present a feasible challenge resigned from the Shadow Cabinet after the referendum result which in turn is going to paint them as Blairite turncoats (rightly or wrongly).

The EU Referendum and the days that followed was breaking point for many Labour MPs. The criticisms piled in that he did not do enough to convince Labour voters in their traditional heartlands and that he and his team severely undermined the Labour Remain campaign in a myriad of ways. Then, Hilary Benn was sacked and the mass exodus from the Shadow Cabinet followed. Not good times for our Jezza but were the criticisms about the EU Referendum a fair reason to jump the ark? Probably. I do however reserve some scepticism, partly because of this article by Professor John Curtice, who stipulated that it was only Tory voters that could have swung the result (along with interesting points about how Labour heartlands were still more Remain than not and offering an explanation about the age divide differences). Considering Professor Curtice, the one pollster who got a poll even close to right in the 2015 General Election, I will definitely hear him out.

Two challengers however did appear in the form of Angela Eagle and Owen Smith, with Eagle dropping out not long after making her leadership announcement.

I can’t help but wonder John McDonnell had a point when he called Corbyn’s opponents “f***ing useless”. So far, those most vociferous in their opposition have demonstrated the exact opposite of what they criticise Corbyn for lacking: competence, strategy and vision. And unfortunately this is where the anti-Corbyn camp seem to be tripping themselves up. It took Angela Eagle a week after she initially planned to announce her bid to finally do it and was shown up by the resignation of Andrea Leadsom from the Tory leadership race, without a word on policy.

Considering the arithmetic from the last leadership election and recent polling points to a demonstrative majority for Corbyn. Insults, condescension, and undermining the newer members by disqualifying those who joined within the last 6 months and charging a £25 fee, something which anti-Corbyn NEC members voted for (and would disenfranchise their own #SaveLabour supporters), is not exactly going to curry favour with the Corbyn-sceptics who could tip the balance in Smith’s favour.

But the Corbyn camp have been equally “f***ing useless”. Pro-Corbyn NEC members in their arrogance were foolish for not even sticking around to prevent the fee rise, Corbyn has been desperately quiet on the accusations of abuse at CLP meetings and being lax about members cyber-bullying of other members regardless of their leanings. The blistering criticism from Lillian Greenwood and Thangam Debbonaire highlights the absolutely bizarre media strategy and the general confusion over Corbyn’s running of the party. While I’m not willing to discount the accusations of maximising PR damage to Corbyn, it would be tremendous and beyond the pale to be unable to sympathise with the situations they were put in. No-one is realistically winning the argument here, which is the desperate need for a change in Labour’s electoral strategy, particularly now that Britain faces the prospect of an as yet unspecified Brexit deal.

But can there conceivably be another challenger to Corbyn? Well, Owen Smith is definitely giving it a go.

Owen Smith has decided to set his policy base predominantly in Corbyn’s general territory — a sensible first step in trying to woo Corbyn’s base. A £200 billion investment package for infrastructure, renationalising the railways, top rate of tax increase to 50% an ethical foreign policy, tackling gender equality. The “anti-austerity, pro-prosperity” is a nice alliterative tagline directly addressing the 2015 narrative.

But for such a substantial opening gambit, there does not seem to be much resonation with the Corbyn club and I fear for Smith supporters that Smith’s own past may make it impossible to make the significant headway he needs to succeed. That past:

And then there’s that funny business with him calling his family “normal” in a comparison to Angela Eagle and that time he told Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood she was only on Question Time because she’s a woman. Hardly a smooth start and jars with the general Labour stance of equality because, you know, it’s the Labour party. If we’re playing Blairite bingo, then Owen Smith will not be fairing well against the anti-establishment Corbyn.

“But Corbyn’s not anti-establishment, he’s been an MP for 30 years!”

Ah, but lest we forget what has underpinned Corbyn’s politics since the beginning: socialist (at least in ethos), anti-war, community politics. New Labour, while introducing many important changes (civil partnerships, minimum wage, SureStart centres) largely followed the script of Thatcher’s economic structure, not reforming but becoming a part of the status quo that saw the unbalancing of employers against employees and the defanging of the unions. Corbyn represents changing that status quo, not perpetuating it and anyone wanting to take Corbyn’s place cannot have any history linked to the old way: they have to make a strong commitment to reform the economy for working people, and#SavingLabour runs the risk of becoming a slogan that could come to mean #SavingMassEconomicInequality, or #IgnoreShiftsInOurEconomyAndSociety.

Okay, obviously these would never be used as slogans but that is what they could become to represent. Brexit should serve as notice on this, but resorting to UKIP-style rhetoric on tightening immigration plays into the pandering of the right wing that has so inflamed anti-immigrant and racist beliefs. Vague platitudes are not enough, there needs to be a real intellectual wrestling match to produce radical new ideas for a different country of 1997. As of writing, Owen Smith has yet to acknowledge the shifting ground beneath Labour and the country and if he doesn’t without gusto, I strongly suspect that he and any future challengers will never win, both pragmatically and ideologically.

The parameters for a realistic challenger are so narrow. Those on the righter wings of the party are likely going to be left with challengers who they only perceive as Jeremy Corbyn 2.0. But by this time, it may end up being too late for Labour and the tune of the pied piper will go on.

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