Brett Kavanaugh Is Cultural Political Theory In Action
The battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination — a far from sure thing — is just the latest iteration of what I’m calling Cultural Political Theory. This still-in-the-works theory describes how America’s two major parties, and their primary cultural wings, are fighting to get control of America’s mainstream culture. Is our culture to be defined by economics, as the Business Conservatives and Workers Liberals want? Or by rigid interpretations of culture, as the Cultural Conservatives and the Dogmatic Liberals would like to see? Or is there a tepid, squishy middle ground, as the Spiritual Liberals and Libertarians say?
In this contest for the Supreme Court, it is the Dogmatic Liberals against the Cultural Conservatives — and the Cultural Conservatives are having trouble rallying their allies to the front. We’ll get to why. But first let’s review:
The Three Pillars of the Republican Party
Business Conservatives: Economically focused voters and leaders who will trade away their cultural conservatism in exchange for economic advantage. Koch Brothers are the best example. They were pretty firmly in charge of the GOP until Trump came along. They are now the second largest bloc of the party. Right now, only Chief Justice John Roberts fits this mold.
Cultural Conservatives: The Christian values, Orthodox Jewish values, nativist, and now, increasingly, white nationalist voters and leaders who want to arrest the change of the social clock, or even pull it back. Despite their disparate aims (white nationalists and ultra-Orthodox would not seem to be allies, for example), they are highly disciplined in their voting behavior. The Tea Party is a recent example, but really Trump is their ultimate symbol. They are the largest bloc of the party. Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch are these types.
Libertarians: Disinclined to support organized social change (whether progressive or regressive), believers of the ultimate fairness of the free market, live-and-let-live types who readily clash with the Cultural and Business wings. They are the smallest bloc of the party, but can swing narrow votes. Their defection from George H.W. Bush in 1992 to Ross Perot helped election Clinton on his plurality win. They don’t have a Supreme Court seat, partially because they’re so small.
The Two and a Half Pillars of the Democrats
The Dogmatic Cultural Liberals: Organized, ideological believers in social change through government. Urban and mostly coastal, they are the best exemplified by professional activists. Because they are so organized, however, they tend to squabble with one another — and sabotage the party. They took control of the Democrats in the 2016 election cycle, but their status as leaders remains uncertain and unstable. They are the smallest faction of the party. Ruth Bader Ginsburg and, less firmly, Sonia Sotomayor are these types.
The Spiritual Cultural Liberals: Disorganized, largely ‘spirit of the law’ believers in social change. They are Midwestern or Southern normally, and find professional activists off-putting; the two factions squabble endlessly, with the Dogmatic Liberals usually on the attack. These voters were likely to stay home in 2016. They had control of the party under Obama, but because of their nebulous nature, did not fully understand how to keep power. This is Stephen Breyer and Elena Kagan.
The Worker Liberals: Economically-focused remnants of the unions, New Dealers and now the rising democratic socialists. They see equality as only possible through paychecks, and battle endlessly with the Dogmatic Liberals. Their most recent bid for power came through Bernie Sanders, in which they lost. Many stayed home in 2016. They are smaller than the two cultural factions, but that seems to be changing. Many of the liberal Supreme Court justices can, on occasion, represent this faction on a case by case basis, but there is none right now who is clearly representative of them.
Cool. So how’s the theory playing out?
All 5.5 factions are in play here, but it’s really the 3 factions of the GOP that are worth looking at. We essentially have a struggle between the Business Conservatives and the Cultural Conservatives — again — as the Cultural Conservatives are trying to ram through a reliable ally while they have a narrow window to do so. That’s disquieting both the Libertarians and the Business Conservatives. Here’s why.
Business Conservatives are far too meh about the Supreme Court picks
They’ve never been super focused on the Supreme Court, whose cultural decisions are more influential than their rulings on say, the tax code. (This isn’t to say they don’t care, but to them, the executive and especially the legislature are more important focuses). So they can compromise, they can posture for history, so long as their shorter list of litmus tests for a Court pick is met. (Namely, making sure the pick will rule for deregulation).
So to start, they didn’t particularly care about the pick the way the Cultural Conservatives did. But now that Kavanaugh’s dirt is tumbling out, they’re particularly uneasy. They know their supporters won’t reward them nearly as much at the polls for the “Conservative at any cost” approach of the Cultural Conservatives. They tend to come from comparatively competitive states. They are not certain Trumpism is not eventually going to cause (or be blamed for) a recession, which their economic platform will get hammered for, or that Trumpism isn’t leading the party to destruction.
So they’re the swing votes, and it’s angering the Cultural Conservatives to no end. This is the Republican Civil War in action, and Kavanaugh is a potential major split point.
The Cultural Conservatives Are Desperate
This is their one shot — and they know it. Not only do Supreme Court picks rarely come around, but they can’t be sure their Business and Libertarian allies aren’t about to get battered at the mid-terms. Because Trumpism has such a loyal base, and because Trumpism is now Cultural Conservatism, these voters and leaders are less worried about themselves than about the reality that their allies could be soon replaced by implacably hostile Democrats.
So they’re pushing Kavanaugh through, come hell or high water, and hope they can get the other two wings to help. The Supreme Court is the Holy Grail for the Cultural Conservatives — not only could it roll back Roe v. Wade, but it could open up all kinds of doors for cultural stagnation or regression from same-sex marriage to immigration to nativism. It would be the ultimate power play against their most hated rivals, the Dogmatic Liberals, who too often win court cases advancing their causes. For that reason, nothing short of a murder on the floor of the Capitol will cause them to dump Kavanaugh — especially because once October begins, the energy needed for reelection will make their allies even more distracted, and Kavanaugh even less likely to be confirmed.
The Libertarians
Of the three GOP factions, the Libertarians can be the most principled. It’s pretty simple why: their voters don’t care about Supreme Court picks, seeing the issue as largely irrelevant to many of their pet causes. (There is, for example, no organized movement amongst the Libertarians to pack the court with pro-marijuana justices — a favorite project amongst the Libertarians).
That’s a nightmare for the Cultural Conservatives. The Libertarians, of which Jeff Flake of Arizona mostly is one (even as he is not labeled as such, his behavior places him here), are able to be genuinely concerned about the allegations against Kavanaugh — and are disconcerted with the aggressive way the Cultural Conservatives are using their window of power to try to shift the balance in America’s closing Culture Wars. That’s making them extremely unreliable allies.
What now?
If Kavanaugh goes down, the Cultural Conservatives will seek yet another Republican-In-Name-Only purge. Their net will widen throughout both factions. But that may be a moot effort. The midterms loom; only the Cultural Conservatives look safe. The party is likely to endure a purge, but not because the Cultural Conservatives lead it. Instead, it will fall to the Democrats to solidify the Cultural Conservatives hold on the GOP — and that, regardless of what happens with Kavanaugh, could cause the entrenchment of Trumpism that the Business and Libertarian Republicans fear, and make them more likely to dart the party permanently.
