A10 Tourney Davidson Film/Game Preview

Game Time: Friday, March 10, 12:00 PM 
Location: PPG Paints Arena
TV: NBC Sports Network
RADIO: WHIO AM 1290/FM 95.7

Dayton

Last game against Davidson featured a miracle comeback for us. Down by 11 with less than 6 minutes left, UD battled all the way back to send the game to OT with a 13–2 run. This was mostly thanks to Kendall Pollard and Charles Cooke, who put the clamps on Peyton Aldridge and Jack Gibbs, respectively. In OT, Scoochie brought it home:

Davidson

I kept this film portion of the previous Davidson preview exactly the same as before.

I had to combine the film post (I watched Davidson-Rhode Island) with this because it took me forever to figure out what the hell is happening in Davidson’s offense. Everything sorta looks the same and every action has a ton of other options off of it. Compared to Rhode Island this is rocket science. At the end I think I got it down to three main actions. First is a simple high screen involving their best player and point guard Jack Gibbs and next best player Peyton Aldridge. The initial action is dangerous, as Aldridge is a 43% 3 point shooter and this high screen is how Davidson starts a ton of possessions. If a shot doesn’t result from it, Aldridge will swing it and go into a double screen. In the first clip it’s for Gibbs. He pops out and Aldridge immediately posts up, where he has a smaller player on him. He takes too long to make a move and let’s help block it, but if you’re a coach that’s what you want.

In the 2nd clip (15s), the same action takes place but instead of Gibbs getting a double screen the wing player Jon Axel Gudmudson curls around a double for him and has a free path to the hoop. Hassan Martin can’t help because he doesn’t want to leave Aldridge. Pick you poison.

In the 3rd clip (23s) Gibbs hangs onto the ball and eventually passes to a wing. After that there is a flurry of down screens and curls and pop-ups until Gudmudson gets free, draws help, and finds the open man for two. Sometimes I’m not sure there is a rhyme or reason to this stuff and it’s just improvisation. It is beautiful to watch when it’s successful. The last clip (40s) is just a small wrinkle in the beginning pick and roll where Aldridge sets a down screen for the screener. Just something small to throw the defense off a little.

The next two videos are similar in that they almost all start with double screens up top for Gibbs. In the first video, the first two clips are basic. The 3rd (18s) though is a set play showing a designed backdoor for Gibbs. This came directly out of a timeout, and even though it didn’t work it’s a good idea if Gibbs is being overplayed.

The 4th (35s) and 5th (55s) start off looking looking the same but suddenly the screeners sprint down to setup for the wing. In the 4th clip the screeners step out looking for open threes, but in the 5th they go further and setup to screen for Aldridge flying across the floor. These were both plays to get open threes late in the game with Davidson down. If that scenario happens tonight look out for it.

The last video again features a bunch of double screens for Gibbs where he ends up keeping the ball. The first and last (47s) are examples of skip passes that Gibbs is incredibly good at and loves to make. That is as difficult a pass there is and he nails it twice. The 2nd (18s) clip is a basic variation where instead of getting a second screen for a pick and roll Gibbs back cuts. The screeners man helps and the screener ends up wide open for three.

The 3rd (33s) and 4th (40s) clips are new twists. Instead of the wing simply speeding around he sets a slight screen on Gibbs man on his way thru. Gibbs now has a one on one to the hoop, and even though he missed they are two high quality shots.

Again, all of this is super complex and I’m not sure how Davidson players even know what they’re doing half the time. I can’t imagine having to defend it. We’ll need to be focused tonight.

Kenpom Rank and Prediction: #85 of 351. Prediction: 75–70 UD, 70% chance of victory for Dayton.

Schedule: Davidson ended the year with an 8–10 record in A10 play and the 8 seed in the tourney. Kenpom has them as the 4th best team in the conference (1 spot ahead of SBU, 5 ahead of Richmond), due to a bunch of close losses and the 2nd hardest conference schedule. The close losses are likely the product of a short bench and an insane reliance on two players, the scheduling because sometimes that is how it works in a 14 team conference where you play 18 games.

Lineup

You know the drill here: Aldridge and Gibbs are All-A10 players who killed us last game. It seemed like Kendall was the only one that could guard Aldridge and Cooke the only one that could guard Gibbs. We’ll see what the matchups are today, but I would expect us to do the same thing as last time and wait until late the 2nd half to go to these matchups.

Jon Axel Gudmundsson is the most effective third option, while Nathan Ekwu will get up alot of mostly inefficient shots. Dusan Kovacevic is still out but Will Magarity has returned for the Wildcats. He’s an extremely effective post player and gives the Wildcats another decent outside shooter and rim protector.

Four Factors

Conference Stats Only

Davidson’s offense: average. A lot of their efficiency is built on never turning the ball over. Force some turnovers and that will crumble. It was concerning how easily their offense ripped through us for three quarters of the game last time. Hopefully the renewed focus on defense this week leads to a better day. Davidson’s defense: pretty mediocre. They allow the highest 3P% in the conference and are only 9th in EFG% allowed. With the way the offense has exploded lately we should have another banner day.

Keys

  • RUN RUN RUN. This Davidson team played yesterday, with Gibbs playing 38 minutes and Aldridge all 40. They should get tired eventually. We need to push the ball responsibly and make them sprint back on defense.
  • Make someone other than Gibbs and Aldridge beat you. Pretty self-explanatory.
  • Force turnovers. Davidon’s relative offensive efficiency is built upon not wasting possessions through turnovers. Disrupt them and we’ll be well on our way to victory.

Prediction

Gibbs and Aldridge are going to get theirs, but they are going to get tired playing two games in two days. A pro-Dayton partisan crowd will help us bring this one home. UD 78–68.

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