East Tennessee St. Preview
Game Details: Saturday, December 10, 2:00 PM @ UD Arena TV: Fox Sports Ohio RADIO: WHIO
Dayton
Not much to report here. Sam Miller should return to the starting lineup after missing the St. Joseph scrimmage with an illness. I would like to see Xeyrius Williams in the starting lineup instead of Ryan Mikesell, assuming that Kendall Pollard is still not in good enough shape to start.
Thanks to Nebraska getting their butts whooped by Creighton at home and Alabama losing to an average Texas team, we have dropped below Rhode Island in Kenpom and now sit at #41. The Northwestern and Vanderbilt games loom large for improving our NCAA selection odds, as we do not yet have a signature win.
Here’s a new thing I created. I took all the games left on Dayton’s non-conference schedule and calculated the odds of every W-L scenario happening using Kenpom probabilities. I then added the scenarios where the win totals were the same. So, at 6–2 already, there is a near 0% chance that UD goes 0–4 and finishes 6–6 in the non-conference. There’s about a 27% chance we go 4–0 and end 10–2. The most likely scenario at 48% is we go 3–1 (Northwestern the most likely loss) and finish 9–3.
I think the odds of going 4–0 are actually better than this because KenPom considers the game against NW semi-away, even though I can almost guarantee we will have more fans (including yours truly) there than NW. If that game were considered neutral then I think the odds of 3–1 vs 4–0 would come closer together in the 30s.
East Tennessee St.
Miscellaneous: The ETSU Buccaneers actually have a couple decent logos. On the left is Jack Sparrow’s blue ghoulish cousin and the right somebody who fought in the american revolution. No complaints…other than the fact that Tennessee is a landlocked state and it’s basically impossible for a buccaneer to make a living there. But hey, you want to name your team after a band of ship-stealing marauders in the Caribbean go for it. DREAM BIG
Kenpom Rank and Prediction: #88 of 352. Prediction: 79–69 UD , 81% chance of victory.
Schedule: ETSU comes into the game at 7–1, having won every game they were favored to. The one game they lost was to #68 UNC Wilmington on the road by 10. The highest ranked team they’ve beaten is #163 UC Irvine by 6. We are surely the best team they’ve faced this year.
Lineup
ETSU Offense: The Buccaneers have the statistical profile of a team that thrives inside. They have the 2nd best 2P% in the entire nation and supplement that with solid offensive rebounders. None of their starters shoot the ball especially well from outside, with lead dog TJ Cromer leading the way at 34% on nearly 6 threes a game. Backup wing Devontavious Payne (this name has to be from a Key and Peele sketch) comes off the bench frequently to improve spacing and knocks down his threes at a 44% rate. Guard AJ Meriweather is more of a defensive specialist in the Kyle Davis mold except he’s bad at finishing. Desonta Bradford is a slashing guard who lives at the rim and free throw line. The guards are not the players that worry me.
Center and Indiana transfer Hanner Mosquera-Perea, PF/C Isaac Banks, backup forward Tevin Glass, and backup wing David Burrell give me pause for concern. All 4 of these players are strong finishers at the rim, and all except Banks are elite offensive rebounders. In terms of rebounding, this will be the stiffest test Miller, Williams, Mikesell, and Pollard have faced since the Alabama or St. Mary’s game. From the limited highlights I’ve seen, several of their offensive rebounds come from missed shots at the rim. An ETSU guard, say Cromer, will beat his man off the drive, forcing a big man to leave Perea and challenge the guards shot. When Cromer’s shot misses Perea is alone for the rebound and putback. Therefore, containing the guards to prevent this action will be crucial.
ETSU Defense: The ETSU defense thrives on turnovers, with the 31st best steal rate in the nation. Luckily for us, UD is 4th in the nation preventing steals. It will be important for Scoochie to continue his success in this area. I expect Charles Cooke to have a big game. (I mean I expect this every game but you know, especially here.) Nobody on ETSU has the size to match up with him, though Perea is a rim protector (29th in nation shot blocker) to be reckoned with. Still, the ETSU defense is only #105 in the country (Dayton offense is #37) and without the steals they thrive on to keep points off the board, this should be a win for Dayton.
Key Matchups
- Kyle/Scoochie/Cooke VS cutting off dribble penetration, from Cromer and Bradford specifically
- The bigs defensive rebounding VS stopping some tough customers in Perea, Burrell, and Glass on the…glass
- Turnovers VS fueling the ole fast break
- Cooke VS little guys who can’t stop him
Prediction: This team is better than the Winthrop team we just beat, however the game should play out similarly. Look for some struggles early, because this UD team does, followed by a period of relative dominance leading to a >10 point win. 78–66 UD
