It is an ancient adage, but a picture really does tell a thousand words.
Onward’s research paints the portrait of a Britain where people and places are feeling left behind as other parts of the country race ahead economically. The consequence is an electoral backlash against a political class that has not done enough to prepare low-skilled workers and communities for successive waves of de-industrialisation and globalisation. Now automation is sweeping over those same areas.
The new political landscape
This map shows in red the areas that are at high risk from automation and voted to Leave the EU in 2016.
In blue are the areas that are at low risk from automation and voted to Remain.
This is a clear picture of a divided electorate.
Our research finds that the higher the risk from automation in an area, the more likely it is to have voted Leave in 2016 and also for the Brexit Party in 2019. These voters are likely to be low-skilled people in places of declining industrial activity and employment. An increasingly precarious labour market will continue to cause political disruption until the concerns of people at risk from technological change are adequately addressed.
In just three years, these imbalances have deepened the rift. Focus groups for Onward’s Human Capital report show that people are feeling left behind and forgotten. In Leave-voting areas such as Dearham, Norfolk, the sentiment is clear:
“The more advanced the economy gets, the more people like me get left behind.”
“The only people who will have jobs are the people who can work on this technology, and that won’t be the normal people.”
“Technology is moving faster than we are, and eventually we will get left behind. If technology keeps advancing, what do the people do?”
Exclusive polling for the report finds that 64% of people believe that computers or robots will do much of the work done by humans and 57% say they think that people will struggle to find employment because of automation. Worryingly, only 21% of workers have gained a new skill in the last year and 23% have never gained a new skill to progress in work. Our polling also finds that a majority of people are in favour of protecting existing jobs over driving innovation.
Voters have repeatedly retaliated at what they see as a failing political and economic system. Indeed, 70% of people believe the status quo isn’t working and we need radical change.
The next Prime Minister will not defeat the Brexit Party or win Leave-voting Labour seats needed for a majority unless they help millions of low-skilled workers prepare for technological change.
- Of the 50 local authority areas most at risk of automation, 48 voted for Leave in the 2016 Referendum and 43 voted for the Brexit Party in the European Elections in May.
- The list of areas most affected by automation includes many of the likely target seats for the Brexit Party in a future General Election, such as Corby, Boston and Skegness, Great Grimsby and Mansfield.
- Of the 50 local authority areas most insulated from impact of automation, 42 voted Remain in the 2016 Referendum and 28 voted for the Liberal Democrats in the European Elections.
The electoral margin between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems is strongly correlated with risk of automation
The Corby-Cambridge divide
Corby and Cambridge could not be more dissimilar, despite being a mere 40 miles apart. What divides them is not distance — it is everything else.
Corby is the local authority where people are most at risk from automation. Only 10% of residents work in an occupation that is experiencing high employment growth and 25% work in an industry with high jobs growth.
Although Corby is currently held by the Conservatives, Labour held the seat during the Blair years and again briefly following a 2012 by-election. Voters overwhelmingly supported the Brexit Party in the 2019 European elections (40%) and voted 64% to Leave the EU.
Cambridge is one of the areas most immune to automation, which will benefit most from the fourth industrial revolution. Unlike Corby, 28% of people work in a growth occupation and 34% work in an industry with high jobs growth.
Cambridge has been held by Labour since 2015, but was previously a Liberal Democrat stronghold in 2005 and 2010. The Lib Dems won 43% of the vote in May 2019 and three-quarters (74%) of people voted to Remain in 2016.
Prosperous areas like Cambridge that are largely immune to the negative effects of technological and industrial shifts are likely to continue supporting a liberal agenda. Communities like Corby that have not reaped the benefits of these changes — and are on average poorer, less productive, with lower levels of skills and education — may by contrast increasingly support populist alternatives. There are no two areas more emblematic of this new political reality.
Leaving the EU and delivering on the referendum result is insufficient to heal the Brexit rift dividing our country. If the Conservatives are to succeed — and be a party of the future — they must take action to prepare already struggling communities for automation and the new economy.
Author bio
James Blagden joined Onward in 2018 and now works as a researcher specialising in data analysis and mapping. He previously studied at the University of Southampton and holds a Masters degree in Public Policy from the University of Reading.
