Predictions for Northern Ireland in the Upcoming General Election
What’s going on in each of the five main parties and what seats are hotly contested?
Like most other parts of the UK, Northern Irish candidates, parties, volunteers and the public at large are preparing for the upcoming election. Unlike most other parts of the UK, however, Northern Ireland is faced with different parties and different complexities, especially given their proposed status under a Johnson Brexit deal.
A look at the five main parties
DUP — Democratic Unionist Party
A socially right-wing, economically centrist party that has, since the last General Election, held the balance of power at Westminster and formed a confidence and supply arrangement with the conservative government. They’re in a tricky position for a few reasons, firstly they don’t really seem to have a coherent or defined Brexit strategy. They have continually rejected deals that have been brought forward and they are out of step with the NI electorate on the subject of Brexit — but it hasn’t seemed to do them any damage in the elections between the referendum and now. Secondly, the party has been embroiled in a few scandals of varying sizes — from personal members of the party acting in ways that aren’t exactly fitting of public representatives to gross incompetence in running ministerial departments in the form of the RHI cash for ash crisis. I think the DUP have some cause for concern going into this election but it’s not going to be a wipe-out by any means.
For the DUP this election is about trying to maintain their seats — they’ll not be breaking any new ground. Key battlegrounds will be South Belfast, North Belfast and maybe East Belfast.
Sinn Fein
Currently, Sinn Fein holds 7 seats although you’d be forgiven for not knowing that given their long-running abstentionist policy at Westminster. They’re opposed to Brexit but can offer little tangible or credible influence at Westminster in stopping it given that their ballots will never be counted. Representatives will likely to playing up their influence in Brussels and their soft-power politics at Westminster in order to shore up votes. They have some rising stars but there’s a sense of internal friction within the party as it transitions from one generation to the next.
Sinn Fein will be attempting to continue their growth in North Belfast with the candidacy of the popular, Finuncane — current Lord Mayor of Belfast and someone with a lot of political capital built-up. They’ll also be attempting to hold on in Foyle where they took a long-held SDLP seat with a small margin. It’ll be interesting to see if abstentionism becomes more of an issue with the electorate given the criticality of every vote when Parliament is in session.
SDLP — Social Democratic and Labour Party
I must admit I’ve never fully got my head around what the SDLP are trying to achieve over the past 15 years. They’ve got some promising policy outlooks and some really talented politicians along with a fiercely committed volunteer base but yet somehow…they never really seem to live up to the promise. I’ve written about this before. Aside from that, they’ve got some internal strife following a messy relationship with Fianna Fail which, most notably, led to Claire Hanna resignIng the SDLP whip. This is even more interesting because Claire is a political force to be reckoned with and is their candidate in the hotly contested South Belfast seat. Additionally, they have their leader, Column Eastwood, running in Foyle trying to win back a seat they lost at the last election. This begs the question of whether a change is afoot internally with the SDLP or do they believe that Eastwood can lead the party from Westminster?
Key battlegrounds for the SDLP will be South Belfast and Foyle and I have to say I like their chances in both seats.
UUP — The Ulster Unionist Party
If I’m confused by the SDLP you can double it for the UUP. They’ve been in a political vacuum it seems for almost a generation. Their biggest challenges remains that they can’t seem to differentiate themselves enough from the DUP. In fact, I can’t think of a single issue that they are thought-leaders or policy-leaders in and that’s a concern. If I was being particularly brutal I’d suggest that the UUP are imply being kept alive by hardcore unionists that simply can’t stomach the thought of voting for a party like the DUP. That’s it…that’s their selling point.
The UUP has recently had a change of leader as Aiken takes over. Before officially commencing his leadership of the party Aiken spoke disparagingly against electoral pacts and making a clear path for ‘Unionist unity’ candidates…this was followed by a gradual climb down over the following weeks as pacts were formed and tensions rose. Not a great start to a new leadership term.
Understandably the UUP will be focussed on Fermanagh South Tyrone as their major focus and are running Tom Elliot who took the seat in 2015. They’re also running Aiken in a seat that is so safe for the DUP that it’s almost just a waste of cash, effort and time. I don’t think they’ll be returning any MPs this time around and if they don’t they’re in trouble of declining even further into obscurity.
Alliance
Coming off the back of a recent surge Alliance will be hoping to do well in this election but they have several challenges. Firstly, they are going hard on denouncing electoral pacts — almost too hard. For what it’s worth I’m anti-pacts as a rule of thumb but I don’t think Alliance are doing themselves any favours with how they’re publicising their position — it’s a bit condescending at times.
They’re running party leader Naomi Long in East Belfast. This is the right move because she held the seat previously. Alliance clearly don’t require their leader to be at Stormont — at least not whilst it’s suspended so perhaps they think Long can lead effectively from Westminster. Long won the second NI seat in Brussels recently performing better than anyone expected so does that mean she’s not confident that Brexit will be stopped and she’s going where the long term actions are?….maybe. Outside of East Belfast, North Down will be an interesting one for Alliance — they’re fielding deputy leader Farry here. I don’t think he’ll win by any stretch but it says something interesting that Alliance is opening themselves to the possibility that their two most senior figures could go to Westminster. Are they drawing a line under the devolved administration?
The other seat to watch for Alliance is South Belfast. They’ve spoken publicly about how they’re the only party that can beat the DUP but I’m not even sure if they really believe that or they’re simply trying to downplay the massively popular SDLP presence in the constituency. Finally, they’re fielding McAllister in North Belfast who is a commanding politician. They’ll be looking to this constituency to rally behind them and increase their vote here following their recent surge in popularity and it’s particularly interesting in North Belfast because McAllister is the only remain candidate who will take her seat that’s running.
Key battlegrounds for Alliance are, in this order, South Belfast, East Belfast, North Belfast.
The key contentious seats and my predictions
South Belfast
This is the seat where all the action is in this election. There’s been a pro-Remain pact between the Greens, SDLP & Sinn Fein as they rally behind Claire Hanna. Interestingly, there was no Unionist pact which spells potential trouble for incumbent DUP MP Little-Pengelly. Alliance also opted out of any pacts and are fielding Bradshaw who in a previous life was a Conservative party candidate.
My prediction — Claire Hanna takes the seat in a tight election.
North Belfast
This seat will be a slug-fest primarily between incumbent DUP MP Nigel Dodds and hopeful and current Lord Mayor John Finucane. The lack of SDLP candidate could increase Finucane’s share of the vote but McAllister running and with the ability to take her seat in Westminster could make her an attractive option for remainers.
My predication — Nigel Dodds holds the seat. Sinn Fein and Alliance both increase their share of the vote.
East Belfast
Gavin Robinson’s exceedingly uncharitable victory speech when he took the seat back for the DUP from Alliance’s Naomi Long could lead to a brutal election here. Long is known for being extremely articulate and unafraid to say what she thinks. That might not worry someone like Robinson normally who can certainly hold his own but given his parties conduct over the last number of years he’s vulnerable and on the ropes. This might make him an easier target than normal especially with other remain parties standing aside to clear the path for Long.
My predication — Naomi Long takes the seat in a close race. Very close.
Foyle
The contest is between SDLP and Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein’s candidate is good and they’ve certainly thrown their weight behind McCallion. However, I think given the closeness between SDLP and Sinn Fein at the last election and the criticality of this term of parliament makes it a real contest.
My prediction — Colum Eastwood takes it.
Fermanagh South Tyrone
This is tough. If the UUP don’t take this seat back it’s likely they’ll be without any MPs and they could even be the only party of the big five without any MPs. This puts them in a precarious position. But, I don’t know if they’ve got it in them to go up against Sinn Fein when they’ll be prepared to be firing on all cylinders.
My predication — Gildernew keeps the seat.
In wrapping up I feel I should say that I’m almost always wrong in my predictions. I thought Brexit was going to be a landslide and that Donald Trump would give Clinton a clean run of the board.
What do I know, eh?
