The Case of Donald Trump
Polymarket, a popular platform for prediction markets, recently faced a challenging situation when a market concerning the indictment of former President Donald Trump was disputed in UMA’s Optimistic Oracle.
Introduction
The issue revolved around how the market should resolve, given the complex nature of the situation and various interpretations of the market rules. In this blog post, we will summarize the issue, explore the importance of the Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) in resolving such disputes, and analyze the cases for each possible outcome. We will also discuss why ambiguities like this make UMA’s Optimistic Oracle the go-to choice for prediction markets, where simplistic data feed models may not adequately account for nuance.
The Issue
The prediction market in question asked whether former President Trump would be indicted by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET.
The market was proposed as “ YES,” at Thu, 30 Mar 2023 21:13:11 ET based on the belief that sufficient information had been made available to be considered an official announcement of the indictment; however, this proposal was quickly disputed on the basis that the indictment had not been unsealed or officially announced — contrary to the ancillary data the market referenced.
The proposed case for “YES” argued that the indictment was officially announced before the resolution time, even though it remained sealed, based on the official tweet by the Manhattan District Attorney prior to the proposal being made. The veracity of this tweet was backed up by a letter from the DA and a copy of the Disclosure Order which were both subsequently made publicly available. It was suggested that the clause about sealed or secret indictments does not apply since the indictment was widely known before the resolution time.
Those who disputed the proposal considered that the indictment had not been officially unsealed or announced hence the market conditions had not been met; contending that the twitter announcement by the Manhattan DA was insufficient to qualify as an official announcement.
Some considered that the oracle should conclude that that the market was proposed “too early” on the basis that an official announcement or unsealing may have occurred in the 26 hours between the proposal time and the resolution time, others that it should resolve to “No” on the basis that it had not occurred, while there was also support for the idea that this market was unresolvable given the ambiguity of the status of the announcement.
The Importance of the DVM
In cases like this, where market rules may not be entirely clear, and different considerations must be taken into account, UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) plays a crucial role in resolving disputes. The DVM allows token holders to collectively decide on the correct outcome by weighing the evidence and arguments presented by both sides. This decentralized approach based on a schelling point model ensures that the outcome is determined in a manner which does not rely on a central authority.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the dispute surrounding the Polymarket prediction market involving the indictment of former President Trump highlights the role of UMA’s Optimistic Oracle and its Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) in addressing complex situations with multiple interpretations. By enabling token holders to collectively determine the correct outcome based on the available evidence, the DVM ensures a more accurate resolution.
Moreover, this case demonstrates why ambiguities such as this make UMA’s Optimistic Oracle the first choice for prediction markets, where simplistic data feed models are inadequate to take into account nuance. In an ever-evolving world, prediction markets must be able to navigate complexity and uncertainty, making UMA’s Optimistic Oracle a vital tool in ensuring that data which is put on-chain is accurate even when there is a lack of clear information.
