by AISHA SHARIPZHAN on February 29, 2016
State level polls and the ongoing primary and caucus results may affect the way voters perceive a candidate, potentially affecting their final vote, said Brookings Institution governance studies fellow John Hudak.
With Super Tuesday, when the greatest number of states hold primary elections, coming up on March 1, previous election results may affect how citizens end up voting, Hudak said.
“Actual results create media narratives about momentum and it can have a real effect on undecided voters,” Hudak said. “Well if one of the people in that race wins a bunch of races in a row, then that might be the deciding factor for an undecided voter.”
Real estate mogul Donald Trump in the Republican Party and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Party have each won three out of four primaries and caucuses so far.
Polls also affect how people vote, persuading them to give a candidate a second look, watch for their name in the media or pay more attention to the candidate at a debate.
“For [Democractic candidate Bernie] Sanders, you’ve seen poll after poll come out over the course of the year in which he was picking up a little bit more and a little more,” Hudak said. “Part of that was due to his own messaging, but part of it too was people starting to buy into the idea that maybe this guy is legitimate. I don’t think a poll changes a person’s mind, but I think itc hanges the way the voter perceives the candidate, which could ultimately lead down the road of changing minds.”
Josh Hoxie, a fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies, said what the public is witnessing is an insurgent campaign from Sanders without big money interests, without corporations and billionaires supporting his campaign. Clinton, on the other hand, is a mainstream moderate candidate.
“This election is showing that the American public are dissatisfied in the status quo of money in politics and the tiny number of people wielding so much power over the election process,” Hoxie said.
The Republicans, Hoxie said, are responding to voters’ dissatisfaction but are appealing to the sense of fear through scapegoating, blaming groups such as immigrants and people of color.
“This series of caucuses and primaries spread out over a many month period in which tens of millions of dollars are poured into TV advertising and other forms of manipulation in order to get people to vote a certain way is unique to the United States,” Hoxie said.
This campaign has defied many political analysts’ expectations, said Hudak said, as Clinton was expected to easily become the nominee without much opposition, while Trump was expected to be a quick phenomenon that would end early in the race.
Aisha Sharipzhan reports on global news for Plex. Born and raised in Prague, Czech Republic, she is a double major in journalism and Central European, Eurasian and Russian studies at the University of Maryland. In her free time, she learns foreign languages, follows the news on social media and draws.
