Congo: on the edge
Donald Trump or Joseph Kabila? Which of these men will have the biggest impact on the world in the next year? Ok, so it’s probably Donald Trump. But Joseph Kabila could be close behind. He has the potential to prevent or create turmoil in the second biggest country in Africa and in the wider region.
I travelled with other members of the UN Security Council to the Democratic Republic of Congo last week. We were there to try to prevent the country from slipping back into conflict. Congo’s last civil wars from 1996 to 2003 sucked in 8 countries and led to the deaths of up to 7 million people — that’s over 14 times as many people killed in Syria during a similar time period. So for this reason alone the world — and the UN — should pay attention to Congo right now.
The tension in Congo centres on the question of who should run the country. Joseph Kabila came to power at the end of Congo’s last civil war, his Presidential powers cemented by the 2002 constitution which helped end the war. The constitution states clearly that a President may only serve two terms.
Kabila’s two terms are up next month. But he won’t be stepping down, after a recent deal with a small part of the opposition to postpone elections until April 2018. The main opposition and much of civil society are furious. A recent poll by the Congo Research Group showed Kabila had the support of 8% of Congolese. Protests against Kabila have already started. On 19 and 20 September, thousands took to the streets of Kinshasa to protest. Kabila’s army and police shot dead at least 48 people according to the UN, with five police officers also killed amid looting and chaos. The state has harassed or detained many opposition figures and journalists and jammed popular radio stations. There is a huge risk that major protests and violence could erupt on 19 December when Kabila’s term formally expires.
The Security Council had what diplomats sometimes call a “full and frank” meeting with Kabila. We told him the world was watching him and that the future of his country was in his hands. We urged him to engage all of the opposition in dialogue about a peaceful transition of power. And we pressed him to build confidence by releasing political prisoners and guaranteeing freedom of expression and the right to protest peacefully.
I asked him to commit to the security council that he would not seek a third term in office. Kabila wondered why we were so bothered by this when so many other leaders in Africa ruled for so long. He said he would of course respect the constitution. His next sentence however was what the international community, the region, and millions of Congolese had feared might be coming.
Kabila said the constitution could be amended.
So what is the way out of this? Step forward the Catholic Church, whom Kabila has asked to mediate with the opposition to find a peaceful solution. The bishops told us they needed time to broker a deal, which many diplomats think might see elections happen next year with Kabila promising not to stand. Almost everyone seems to support this dialogue and there is a chance it will succeed if both the opposition and Kabila compromise and put the country first. The UN Security Council will need to keep up the pressure for a deal and be prepared to sanction individuals who commit or incite violence. And the DRC’s development partners will need to help finance such elections. The fact that some African leaders are asking Kabila to step down for the sake of stability also shows how they view the future.
Kabila faces a historic choice. Will he defy the constitution and his people and cling to power, whatever the cost? Or will he follow the path set by Nelson Mandela and put the stability of his country first, going down in history as the man who unified his country and then showed how a peaceful democratic transition can work? Let us all work together to help him make the right choice.
