Discovering the Many Facets of Foresight
After two years of experimenting with foresight at UN Global Pulse, members of the team reflect on what they learned — and are still learning.
By Amy Lynn Smith — Independent Writer + Strategist
It can be tempting to think of foresight as something as simple as strategic planning or applying past performance to future predictions. But the reality is that foresight is far more than that — and it’s often not at all what you’d expect.
At UN Global Pulse (UNGP) — the UN Secretary-General’s Innovation Lab — team members embarked on a two-year experiment with foresight. The goal? To develop a foresight workstream UNGP can use to support the work of the UN. This includes the UN’s Common Agenda, which envisions a future of inclusive global cooperation that’s better prepared to address the most urgent issues facing humanity.
But to consider foresight just a tool or a method would be selling it short. Foresight relies on co-creation, collaboration, experimentation, imagination, and much more. Not to mention that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, making every foray into foresight a unique journey of exploration.
To capture key takeaways from this two-year project, we had a roundtable discussion with some of the primary experimenters and pioneers. They have all contributed to the foresight portfolio at UNGP, whether they have been with UNGP for years or a few months. And they all came away with a deeper understanding of not only applying foresight in a strategic way, but also in a deeply human way. Here, they offer their candid responses to our questions.
How did the way you think about foresight change over the two-year experiment?
Tiina Neuvonen, Strategic Foresight Lead: Foresight is still an emerging and evolving field, and when we got started, we wanted to avoid strict definitions. Instead, we took the humble, exploratory position of starting to learn the how and why of foresight in the UN system: What could be the value of foresight, what could be the different value propositions, and what kind of positive impact could foresight have when applied in the UN context?
Claudia Sáenz Zulueta, Strategic Foresight Senior Analyst: Rather than keeping a locked definition of what foresight is, what has evolved the most is how to implement futures and foresight. When we started, it was a bit more theoretical. Now we have experimented with different approaches to co-creation and know how to approach colleagues within the UN to collaborate with other communities around the world. Ultimately, our guiding compass has been that the future belongs to everybody, and everybody should be able to design it. Trying to incorporate many people into the process can make it a bit messy, very diverse, and very fun.
Lucia Soriano Irigaray, Strategic Foresight Analyst: Before joining UNGP, I had worked on strategic foresight from the perspective of achieving a specific goal or strategy. What I have learned since I joined the team is about the importance of inclusivity. All groups should have a say and engage in what we call “participatory foresight,” where everyone is involved in imagining the future they want to build.
Jimena Califa, Design Strategist and Foresight Analyst:. Since I came to UNGP, I have strengthened the link of foresight to the human side and its social impact. We have the chance to work with real people in their communities, aiming to democratise access to futures practice.
Minke Meijnders, Strategic Foresight Specialist: I came much more from the background of using foresight to understand emerging risks. But when I joined UNGP, I learned that it can be used as a tool to support others, not only by identifying the risks but also the opportunities and positive pathways for change.
Was there a “lightbulb moment” that sparked the way you think about foresight today?
Minke: When you’re busy firefighting in a crisis, you don’t really think about the long-term perspective. Supporting teams that have to deal with crises was a defining moment for me, because I realised foresight is about really understanding the concerns of the people we support. What are the real problems teams are struggling with? How can foresight empower them? Using foresight in a crisis context is not easy, but it helps us create a space to have conversations about the future and the impact you want to make more than the tools or methodologies.
Claudia: Because we didn’t have a strict definition of foresight, we could position it as being a little bit of both worlds: strategic analysis and the creative side of imagining the future so you can do anything. Various projects pushed me to look more into inclusive aspects of foresight, where people shape the future they want to see. It’s a way to include the excluded — to build hope and agency for shaping common futures.
Jimena: Seeing how the practice of foresight can be used in totally different ways with different outputs for different people really opened my mind to all the possibilities and how everyone adds value and perspective. We try to support the teams by providing a safe space for them to experiment. We put a seed in the ground, but they are making the tree grow.
What are some of the most important things you learned about foresight so far and how do you apply them when working with others?
Minke: It’s important to begin with a very clear understanding of the question that needs to be answered, and where the answer and insights need to land and with whom. It’s only then that you move to the stage of deciding on the methods and tools.
Lucia: We always try to approach a project in a way that’s meaningful to whoever we’re working with. To make foresight something everyone can use, it has to be easy, accessible, relevant, and tangible. Another big challenge is explaining that foresight is a process: You learn as you do it. There are going to be mistakes, and it’s very important to have an open mind.
Jimena: We’re still learning how to keep people engaged along the journey. In each project, you must understand what people’s expectations are about foresight and then how to guide the process to build trust in it. Each phase has its own essence, from understanding complex systems to imagining vast possibilities. Beyond the main impact is on the long-term, knowledge arises from each step. It differs in how communities and their people perceive the created value according to their current and future desires and needs.
Claudia: Sometimes, our role is to make people feel safe and comfortable sharing their thoughts as they start imagining futures. We also have to remind ourselves — and others we’re working with — to be comfortable with uncertainty. It’s not a linear process; it’s iterative. Embrace this uncertainty because we’re all in that space together.
Tiina: I agree we all had to get comfortable with uncertainty and that we might not know what happens in the beginning, middle, or end of the foresight process. That can be frustrating to people who want to get an answer to build and get certainty, as there is still this common misperception that foresight is about predicting the future. With foresight, exploration of many alternative futures, they get even more options and it can be confusing. It’s important to know that it’s a dynamic process, and the design doesn’t happen only in the beginning. So you cannot make assumptions and you must manage expectations. You have to begin by developing a shared understanding of what foresight is in each situation, and then start building from there, meeting people where they are and what makes sense to them, and committing them to a shared journey. We constantly collect feedback and iterate. We are co-creating futures — co-creating is our way of working. And for many people, it’s a shift in mindset as future is often seen as something that happens to us, not as somethig that we created through our actions every day.
What does it take to build a culture of foresight in an organization?
Claudia: Imagination is very important to foresight. No matter who you are, imagined futures are extraordinary, and everybody can have the same opportunity to imagine different futures. You must have that before you start developing any kind of strategies.
Tiina: Everything starts with individuals and our minds: how we think about the world, how we see our role in the world. With this culture shift, we can think about the future not as something that happens to us, but something we can influence. The shift includes owning our responsibility to influence the future — we are accountable to the future planet and people. And there is often a lack of long-term thinking, which presents a challenge. So we must encourage spaces for critical thinking about the future. We must also move from a top-down hierarchy and create a space for everyone to contribute, and that requires strong leadership support.
What do you consider to be the value of foresight to the UN family?
Lucia: I would like to see the UN becoming more agile. Sometimes the UN is portrayed as coming in too late when something happens, and foresight will provide the knowledge, information, and capacity to be more resilient and anticipatory when a crisis happens.
Minke: Not only building that agility and preparedness, but foresight could also help in strengthening global cooperation, and that’s what the UN is ultimately for. It’s important to bring together the unusual subjects. By imagining radically different futures or ways of doing things, we can build a common understanding of the problems that lie ahead. Working together to solve global challenges is my dream for the future.
Jimena: We are all building our future, and in that way the UN will become stronger. Learning to love the uncertainties, something Tiina has talked about, builds appetites and opens the door to reframing approaches, processes, and tools to change business as usual.
Tiina: The UN has been organised around specific, substantive mandates. But foresight can really be a good way to bring these different perspectives together — to change and strengthen the UN’s collaboration by having a shared long-term vision. Foresight also provides a gateway for bringing in the scientific community and vulnerable groups who have not been included, and by doing this, introduces new issues and perspectives on the agenda. Foresight is an invitation to think differently and more holistically, to aim for systems transformation and develop models for long-term strategy and policy to drive organizational resilience in complex and uncertain contexts.
Claudia: Supporting the UN in working in a more anticipatory way — thinking about our future and the future of others while maintaining the value of empathy. I’m very excited about this!
Is there anything else you want to share with those who are looking to use foresight in their work?
Minke: Don’t be intimidated by the uncertainty and don’t think you have to understand the entire field of foresight before you can enter it. It’s a space where you can learn.
Lucia: There are no right answers when you’re having conversations about the future. All comments are welcome.
Jimena: Remember that you can shape the future. Be curious and think critically — and know that how you think about the future can also inform your present and the decisions you make today.
Tiina: Love the uncertainty, because that’s the opportunity for change and reenergizing the work. And start with self-reflection: What is your relationship to the future and how does it impact your everyday decisions? Begin by trying to first understand the relationship different stakeholders have to the future and design the process from this understanding.
Claudia: If you’re thinking about futures and foresight, you’re already doing it in some way, so own that process. Foresight comes in many shapes and forms. If you’re thinking about the future, it’s about how you implement it in the way you do work and are aware of the area of impact you have. So it’s more about truly understanding your own world — the existing foresight world that you’re already part of — and empowering yourself.
