The Road to Peace in South Sudan
By Charmine Osore, UNA-NCA Senior Research Assistant
The peace process in South Sudan has been anything but linear — challenges began before independence was an imaginable reality for southerners. Under a united Republic of Sudan, early conflict between the north and south emerged following Sudanese independence from Britain in 1956 — the absence of foreign influence created a power vacuum that facilitated the reemergence of tribalism, driving ethnic and religious disputes between the traditionally Christian south and Islamic north. Increased tensions led to the outbreak of the Second Sudanese Civil War in 1983. The Sudanese government was suddenly caught in treacherous guerilla warfare with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), the southern military force. In 2005, the two parties signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which outlined six years of partial autonomy for the south. By 2011, South Sudan became its own sovereign state.
As the nation enters its ninth year of independence, the need for reform has never been more urgent. A failing government and unstable economy risk driving the country into further turmoil.
Decades of Conflict
After 20 years of violence, southerners were eager for independence. Salva Kiir, founder of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the political wing of SPLA, was a key figure in pushing the north to hold an independence vote and calling for international support. The United States was one of the most active foreign forces that helped to organize a nationwide referendum. Shortly before the independence vote in 2011, the UN Security Council approved the formation of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). The mission was tasked with protecting vulnerable citizens and supporting the general reconstruction effort. On July 9th, 2011, the democratic referendum passed, ushering in an era of autonomy.
In order to create a united identity, South Sudan now had to confront its own complicated history of ethnic relations. The Dinka, the largest ethnic group, make up 35% of the population. The Nuer are about 15% of the population, while the rest of the county includes several smaller groups. Salva Kiir, a member of the Dinka tribe, was named President on independence day in 2011. As a show of ethnic unity, he went on to appoint Dr. Riek Machar, a Nuer, as the First Vice President. Conflict between the Dinka and Nuer predates South Sudan’s secession from the north — many had hoped that independence would placate the decades-long animosity between the two groups. With an uncertain future, the fight for government control reignited grievances between the Dinka and the Nuer. Kiir fired and reappointed dozens of military officials, which his opponents saw as an attempt to consolidate power. Machar, in response to power shifts in the cabinet, then announced his intentions to run for president in the 2015 election.
Peace was short-lived for the citizens of South Sudan. Even with attempts to create a singular South Sudanese identity, ethnic grievances did not disappear. Machaer and Kiir no longer had the common goal of independence to unite them. In 2013, Vice President Riek Machar and his allied military force SPLA-IO (SPLA In Opposition) fled the capital of Juba after Kiir accused him of organizing a coup, prompting the outbreak of another violent civil war. A UN report found that the government carried out attacks on civilians in “opposition-controlled villages.” SPLM-IO forces retaliated with a series of aggressive campaigns in Dinka communities. Ethnically motivated violence killed nearly 383,000 people and left over 2.2 million people displaced.
After several failed agreements and ceasefires, Machar and Kiir both signed the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan. The deal was far more comprehensive than previous agreements due to the involvement of key third party mediators Omar Hassan Ahmed al-Bashir, the president of Sudan, and Yoweri Museveni, the president of Uganda. The signed Agreement contained several power sharing mechanisms that granted representation to various political parties. Along with the restoration of Machar as First Vice President, SPLA-IO was allowed to appoint 9 of the 35 positions in the Council of Ministers. Kiir was granted appointment over 20 of the Ministers, while the rest were given to minor political parties. Both President and Vice President were also granted joint authority over the appointment and dismissal of military officials. Still, Machar and Kiir were not completely committed to a unity government — the Transitional Government did not officially convene until February of 2020. The fight for political power overshadowed a devastating reality — South Sudan was headed towards an even more catastrophic humanitarian crisis.
Renewed Barriers to Peace
Institutions in South Sudan do not have the capacity to serve its almost twelve million citizens. Corruption is rampant, as cabinet members within the Transitional Government divert funds from the oil industry to their personal accounts. Resources are severely limited, and Kiir’s government is unable to confront regional violence, economic failure, and widespread hunger. Despite the guarantee of disarmament programs in the 2018 Agreement, the Equatorial region has seen an uptick in targeted violent attacks, and over 600 people have died due to militia activity since March.
Police forces simply do not have the capacity to intervene given the economic limitations that plague the country as a whole. As an oil-dependent nation, South Sudan is subject to the volatility of the international market. Falling global demand for oil and a steep decrease in prices have triggered a rapid decline in South Sudan’s economy. The government was forced to declare an economic state of emergency after a drastic depreciation in South Sudanese currency.
The coronavirus is yet another threat to the country’s incredibly precarious situation. The UN Security Council is concerned that the pandemic will exacerbate the challenges within South Sudan’s already fragile healthcare system. Internal failures have forced much of the responsibility for testing, treatment, and management of the virus onto outside humanitarian aid organizations.
Global and Local Peacebuilders
In response to increased violence, UNMISS is deploying troops and providing necessary aid to affected regions. Peacekeepers are working to expand Protection of Citizen (POC) sites in the Jonglei state, one of the most vulnerable areas. Health experts are building clinics to make the testing and treatment of coronavirus more accessible. However, the presence of UNMISS has remained a contentious issue within South Sudan, as both Kiir and Machar criticized UN presence during the civil war.
The Mission has adapted to changing circumstances since their involvement in 2011, deploying over 19,000 personnel, the majority being troops. During civil unrest, several POC camps were directly targeted, putting civilians and UN troops at risk. Conflict escalation prompted the UN Security Council to deploy more military and civilian personnel in 2014 and 2016. As of now, the Mission is still deeply concerned over the uncertain peace process and has vowed to maintain a presence in South Sudan until at least March 15th 2021.
UNMISS is additionally working to establish long-term stability by delegating responsibilities to the government in Juba. In a recent press conference, Head of Mission David Shearer made clear that “the government has primary responsibility for protecting its citizens.” While UNMISS is deeply involved and committed to the peace process, they are also prioritizing the empowerment of the Transitional Government to carry out sustained peace.
UNMISS is not the only organization working on the ground — there are a host of humanitarian groups contributing to the peace effort and supporting citizens directly. South Sudan has developed a rich network of local aid groups; these grassroots organizations, while less all-encompassing than UNMISS, are vital to relief efforts. Because they are integrated in their community, local advocates have a unique understanding of South Sudanese issues. Their expertise comes from the fact that they live within and are directly affected by unstable conditions. Community involvement allows local advocates to identify the primary areas of concern and help citizens by building long term relationships of trust.
One such community activist is Rita M. Lopidia, founder of Eve Organization for Women Development. She was recently awarded the U.S. Institute of Peace Inaugural Women Building Peace Award for her work in female advocacy. During the peace negotiations of 2018, Lopidia served as a chief advocate for female representation in government. She formed the South Sudanese Women’s Coalition, which pushed for the inclusion of a gender quota in executive bodies. The Coalition also helped to establish a fund to support women owned businesses. One of her recent initiatives calls attention to gender-based violence and discrimination within South Sudan.
“People are still suffering, people do not see the dividends of peace.”
Advocates like Lopidia are working tirelessly to implement key reforms and commitments from the 2018 agreement, despite widespread opposition. Her work represents the growing demand for direct, inclusive policies.
Countless failed promises have left the public disillusioned with South Sudan’s leadership. The almost cyclical reform process has led citizens to ask: Is peace possible in South Sudan? The actions and dedication of those on the ground prove that there is a path to stability. Defining a reform strategy will be a collaborative effort — the international community must continue to uplift UNMISS and grassroots organizations as they move towards creating a more effective and representative nation.
