Relations Between The Transatlantic Sphere and Turkey
A Summer 2023 Research Exploration
In the summer of 2023, EURO major Deniz Erdal embarked on a research journey to investigate the impact of Turkey’s relationship with NATO and European institutions on the Turkish General Elections. The May 2023 elections in Turkey featured President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s re-election bid and a significant challenge from opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Below is a brief overview of of his research experiences and key findings across the Balkans and Western Europe.
Turkey’s Transatlantic Relationship Through the Balkans
My research began in the Balkans congruently with an Honors Carolina Study Abroad Program, led by Dr. Robert Jenkins, of which I was also part. In Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Turkey’s political and security ties to the Balkans were visible from Turkey’s NATO membership and participation in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
A noteworthy experience was a visit to Camp Butmir, a primary military installation hosting EUFOR and NATO troops. To my surprise, the base commander was a Turkish officer, providing an opportunity to delve into Turkey’s relationship with NATO, particularly as it relates to its stance on admitting Sweden to the trade agreement.
Meetings with experts and diplomats in the BiH, including the principal deputy High Representative for BiH, offered insights into Turkey’s involvement in regional security through EUFOR, NATO, the OSCE, and bilateral relations. Additionally, I gained insight into the relationship between Turkey’s AKP and local political parties, and similarly stalled EU accession processes for both Turkey and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Sweden’s NATO Membership
In Prishtina, Kosovo, I had the privilege of meeting with the Swedish Ambassador who, of course, closely monitored Erdoğan’s decision regarding Sweden’s NATO membership. His insights were invaluable in understanding Turkey’s stance on this matter.
Insights from Diplomats and Experts in Brussels and The Hague
Off to Brussels and into The Hague, I had the opportunity to connect with dignitaries, diplomats, and global experts. In Brussels, I met with experts at the Directorate General for External Politics (DG-EXPO) of the EU Parliament. They provided valuable insight into EU-Turkey relations.
With a deeper understanding of the workings of European institutions, I met with a former Turkish diplomat and a NATO officer in The Hague. Pivoting off Turkey’s interactions with Brussels, hot topics included the effects of the AKP government on Turkish foreign service cadres and the implications of Erdoğan’s veto removal for Turkey’s security relations within the Transatlantic sphere.
Diplomatische Akademie Vienna
After conducting research in the field, I lived and learned at the Diplomatische Akademie (DA) in Vienna, Austria under DA Director, Ambassador Emil Brix and Dr. Jenkins as a part of my Honors Carolina Study Abroad. During my time in Vienna, I was also able to meet with further diplomats and officials, culminating with an opportunity to observe a meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council at the Hofburg Palace and further interact with Turkish diplomats.
Key Findings and Conclusions
In search of an answer, I concluded that Turkey’s foreign policy has been shaped more recently by short-term domestic electioneering and efforts to garner political gains from anyone willing to conduct business with Erdoğan. Without long-term strategic planning, the prospect of EU accession has all but vanished. Democracy has deteriorated into a “hybrid regime,” as Turkey conveys neutrality between Russia and the West.
Further, Erdoğan’s policy whiplash after his re-election does not signify a permanent change. Rather, the ‘shift’ is really a maneuver to secure quick economic support in a flailing economy, suggesting that Turkey’s foreign policy remains highly influenced by domestic political considerations.
Ultimately, my 2023 ESRA research journey was a remarkable opportunity to explore the intricate dynamics of international relations (IR). Specifically, I gained not just deeper insights into Turkey’s evolving relationship, but a deep appreciation for the complex nature of IR. The support of the Center for European Studies here at UNC-Chapel Hill was invaluable for my research. I am immensely grateful for the support provided by the ESRA grant and the individuals who made this research possible.
The ESRA is supported by generous donations from Betsy Blackwell and John Watson.
