Few exciting matchups, but Week 13 offers significant blow-out potential.
By: August Bottorf and Hershy Kulkarni
Wow, we stunk last week huh? Both of our locks failed, as the Browns coughed away some easy drives against a pathetic Jaguars defense and the Raiders had a bafflingly awful performance against the Falcons that cast a serious shadow on their status as contenders. I was proud to get my “random hunch” pick right, however, as the 49ers did show up against the Rams, and we nailed the Panthers/Vikings game pretty much to a tee (Thank you Joey Slye.) Overall, Hershy and I both learned (hopefully) to not always bet against bad teams, who can keep it close even in situations they shouldn’t.
Unless it’s the Eagles or the Jets. Then bet against them no matter the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (1:00PM)
Spread: Dolphins -11.5
O/U: 42
AB: I’m a little suspicious of a weak Dolphins offense, particularly with a question mark at starting QB. The Bengals were able to march back into scoring distance against New York and cover last week- but I can’t bet on the same team to do that twice. Miami should ravage a destitute Bengals offense for an easy cover here, regardless of who their starter is at quarterback. Dolphins -11.5.
HK: The Bengals without Joe Burrow looked extremely weak, collecting just 155 yards of offense and poor 3rd down efficiency all day. A defense that remains one of the worst in the league allowed the Giants back into the game. On the flip side, the Dolphins defense continues to impress, with 17 straight games with at least one takeaway — the best in the league. Expect the Bengals offense to be completely shut down. It remains unclear whether Tua or Fitzpatrick will suit up at quarterback for the Dolphins, but whatever the case may be, the Dolphins should cover here. Dolphins -11.5.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (1:00PM)
Spread: Titans -6
O/U: 54
AB: I was really unsure about this one, a matchup between arguably the two best running games in football, but I think a huge part of this is whether Cleveland activates Myles Garrett off of the COVID-19 reserve list this week. Garrett is a monster on the Cleveland defensive line, and was probably the frontrunner for DPOY before his benching. Tennessee, meanwhile, has had some struggles on the offensive line after the loss of Taylor Lewan. They had a fantastic game against Indy last week, but with a team as streaky as the Titans I don’t know whether they can leverage that into a 7 point victory. If Garrett is still out, bet the Titans. If not, which I expect, put your money on a Cleveland cover. Browns +6.
HK: This will be a masterclass in running the ball. This graphic says it all, honestly.
Two of the best running backs in football. Over the past 3 weeks, the Titans are 2nd in rush yards, only behind the Browns. Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry both are rounding into form with dominant showings in November, but Henry’s dominance over the past two weeks has ushered in the start of Tractorcito season. At quarterback, Tannehill remains a game manager, picking apart defenses with easy play actions, while Baker Mayfield continues to struggle with accuracy issues. Ultimately, I doubt Henry will have quite the same day, but 6 points still feels very achievable given their penchant for running up the score. On top of that, Titans -6 and under.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (1:00PM)
Spread: Bears -3
O/U: 44.5
AB: The Bears are in free fall right now, dropping 5 straight capped by embarrassment at the hands of the Packers last Sunday. Nevertheless, I think they’re able to pull out a gutsy win against Detroit this week. Mitch has always played his best against the Lions, and while teams often do bounce back after firing a head coach, I think the return of Akiem Hicks is enough to stop the bleeding—at least temporarily—in the windy city. Bears -3.
HK: The Chicago Bears are very very bad and Week 12 showcased it in all of its glory on Monday Night Football. The switch at QB to Mitch Trubisky helped the offense at times, but turnovers continued abound. The Bears defense getting throttled that badly against Rodgers was a surprise, but upon closer review, DC Chuck Pagano looks out of his depth. The Bears continue to struggle against slot receivers, creating matchup problems for aging LB Danny Trevathan. The Lions, on the other hand, look to start things fresh under Darrell Bevell. Bevell, in this week’s practices, has emphasized pace on offense. With an offense with talent everywhere, a quick-paced offense could finally unlock some potential. Detroit’s defense is a squad that played a frustratingly high amount of man coverage under Patricia, despite not having the personnel for it. Without him, they will likely play to their strengths in Week 13. There might be a slight bias here, as a Lions cover or outright win might finally seal Pace & Nagy’s fate. Lions +3.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (1:00PM)
Spread: Colts -3.5
O/U: 51.5
AB: Good Lord was that an ugly game for Frank Reich’s bunch on Sunday- a defensive line missing DeForest Buckner was thrashed by the Titans offense. The Texans, meanwhile, are coming off a red-hot performance against Detroit and are heating up after their putrid start to the season. With that being said, I don’t think Deshaun Watson hero-ball is enough to save them against a team with more talent and much better coaching. The Texans offense always slows down after Will Fuller leaves, and his six week suspension casts some serious doubt on the Texans’ chance of a late-season resurgence. I would not be surprised to see the Colts D suffocate a talent-deficient Houston offense. Colts -3.5. (LOCK)
HK: Indianapolis remains frustratingly inconsistent week-to-week, coming off a thrashing from the Titans, but two weeks removed from a quality performance against the Packers. This is a team that is very difficult to be confident in on a weekly basis. Houston, on the other hand, has shown some life under interim HC Romeo Crennel. Their Thanksgiving performance was quite impressive (against a Patricia Lions team, to be fair) and the offense has started to pick up in the past 3 weeks, ranking 7th in passing touchdowns and 11th in points. The loss of Will Fuller will significantly hurt Watson’s passing options, and could be a difference maker down the stretch. Colts -3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (1:00PM)
Spread: Vikings -10
O/U: 52.5
AB: The quarterback who broke my lock last week, Mike Glennon, put out a surprisingly strong performance against Cleveland, coming within 2 points of victory. Nevertheless I think that performance isn’t sustainable. Bears fans like me remember Glennon performing decently in weeks 1 and 3 and then falling to pieces weeks 2 and 4, like he was on an alternating schedule. I think one of the league’s best defensive minds gives him hell this week. I may have shot wrong on Cleveland, but I expect the Vikings to run roughshod over the Jaguars this week. Vikings -10.
HK: The Jaguars have had significant problems closing out games this year, culminating in the firing of GM Dave Caldwell. However, they showed enough against the Browns to inspire confidence in covering a 10 point deficit. Mike Glennon looked moderately competent and James Robinson continues to carry this offense on his back, tallying a touchdown and running more than 30 passing routes. On the other hand, Vikings played sloppy ball on offense, giving up two fumble-sixes to ROTY contender Jeremy Chinn. At the end of the game, they relied on the Panthers shooting themselves in the foot to escape with a win. A margin of 10 points seems unlikely to hold. Jaguars +10.
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (1:00PM)
Spread: Raiders -7.5
O/U: 47
AB: The Jets are the Jets are the Jets are the Jets are still the Jets. Raiders -7.5.
HK: For a team that usually prides itself on discipline and physicality, the Raiders had a dismal showing against the Falcons. They looked almost nothing like against the Chiefs, losing 4 fumbles and a pick 6. Still, against a hapless Jets, the Raiders should be able to right the ship with a supremely easy matchup. Raiders -7.5 and under.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (1:00PM)
Spread: Saints -3
O/U: 45.5
AB: Division games go close very often and the Saints will still be missing their starting quarterback- but they’ve played arguably the best football in the NFL over the past 6 weeks and I am not going to bet against them until they prove they can’t win anymore. While it was suspect to start the season, the Saints defense has ranked 2nd in DVOA for the last 6 weeks of the season. Hill may not be a world beater, but Sean Payton has already cooked Morris’s iteration of the dirty birds once this season. Maybe with a larger spread I would be more inclined to bet Atlanta, but I think the Saints run away with this one, just like they have against every team they’ve played recently. Saints -3.
HK: The Saints may have scored 31 points against a QB-less Broncos, but a closer look shows some cause for concern. Taysom Hill, to put it bluntly, did not play well. He threw for 78 yards, an interception, and was sacked three times. He routinely showed poor decision making and held the ball too long on quick plays, like screens. His legs saved him in the end, like it always does. But the Saints are not inspiring confidence. The Falcons, on the other hand, are fresh off an absolute thumping of the Raiders. They’re playing inspired football under interim HC Raheem Morris (who looks like a legitimate candidate to take over full-time duties) and played excellent defense, forcing five turnovers. Remember, this was a Raiders offense that went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs just one week prior. Long gone are the days of the Falcons playing soft, it appears. Falcons +3.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (4:05PM)
Spread: Rams -3
O/U: 48.5
AB: The Rams had been heating up before being stopped cold by the 49ers last Sunday, and the Cardinals had an equally frustrating errand against the Patriots. Both these teams have flaws and weaknesses, and seem pretty evenly matched. In a game like this, I favor the better coach—and in my mind, that’s Sean McVay. Rams -3.
HK: The Rams continue to look like a legitimately good football team, while the Cardinals have looked sneaky bad in recent weeks. Two straight losses to the Seahawks and Patriots have shown some serious cracks. Against the Patriots, the Cardinals offense sputtered and made a couple key mistakes. They have all the talent in the world on offense, but continue to show signs of youth and inexperience. The Rams lost an extremely tight and sloppy game against the Niners, but showed enough on defense to continue inspiring confidence going forward. Jared Goff, on the other hand, doesn’t. He continues to consistently turn the ball over, second in the league in this stat, and look out of sorts against blitz-oriented teams. However, enough question marks on the Cardinals side slants the balance towards Los Angeles. Rams -3.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (4:05PM)
Spread: Seahawks -10
O/U: 46.5
AB: The Giants, already a weaker team, took a major blow last week when QB Daniel Jones left with a hamstring injury. All signs point to an ascending Seattle team absolutely blowing their doors off this game. Despite that, I’m going to pick the Giants to keep it close. I have no real rationale for this other than the Seahawks seem like the type of team to randomly underperform against a team with a backup quarterback, and my similar hunch was right last week. Giants +10.
HK: The Seahawks are getting back Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde this week, a significant boost for an otherwise struggling offense. Meanwhile, starting QB Daniel Jones will miss this game and Colt McCoy will step in. This feels like a trap game, and the Giants are 15–1 against the spread in the last 16 games on the road versus NFC opponents. Still, down a starting QB against a resurgent Seahawks defense (1st in sacks and 5th in TFLs over last 3 games), I struggle to see a scenario where the Giants keep this competitive in what will be a largely negative game script. Seahawks -10.
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (4:25PM)
Spread: Patriots -1
O/U: 47.5
AB: This is a tough game to pick and could easily go either way- Justin Herbert and Chargers seem to have the more talented team, but once again, they find a way of squandering winnable opportunities in the most hilarious of ways (Seriously Anthony Lynn, what was that playcalling man?) Belichick’s Patriots have overperformed the past few weeks, and I suspect the better coach wins this one for his team. Patriots -1.
HK: The Chargers have choked all year in close games and, with Anthony Lynn, that will likely not change for the rest of the season. Unfortunately for them, this game will likely be close. The Chargers offense looks extremely explosive and, while the Patriots defense played well against the Cardinals, keeping them to only 200 yards, it still remains a unit 27th in points this season. The return of Austin Ekeler will help Herbert keep drives alive and will significantly bolster a team that is 2nd in net passing yards. Betting on Anthony Lynn is likely a pick I will regret looking back, but this matchup against a weak Patriots defense looks too tasty. Chargers +1.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (4:25PM)
Spread: Packers -8.5
O/U: 47
AB: The Packers absolutely shellacked the Bears last week, as Rodgers had an easy time dismantling a team coached by a floundering former Andy Reid OC and a struggling 2nd overall pick at quarterback who fans quickly lost faith in after one good season. This week, Green Bay takes on a team coached by a floundering former Andy Reid OC and a struggling quarterback picked second overall who fans lost faith in after one good season. Packers -8.5.
HK: Aaron Rodgers is the leading MVP candidate this year and, after absolutely dismantling a top 10 Bears defense last week, shows no sign of slowing down. The Eagles defense, by comparison, is far far worse. Darius Slay got bullied play after play by DK Metcalf, giving up 177 yards, and his matchup against Devante Adams will not be any easier. On offense, the Eagles’ Carson Wentz continues to struggle mightily, seeing ghosts and throwing awful interceptions at a stunningly consistent rate. A change at play calling might help slightly, but more likely, this offense is stuck in the mud. Given Rodgers’ propensity for running up the score against hapless opponents, Eagles will not cover. Packers -8.5.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (8:20PM)
Spread: Chiefs -14
O/U: 50.5
AB: Denver has finally had its quarterbacks return to the team after being forced to start a UDFA receiver against the Saints last week. The Broncos are shaky and Lock has still been inconsistent, and the Chiefs more than covered the last time they played Denver. Even with the spread being 2 full touchdowns, I would be entirely unsurprised if the Chiefs covered. Chiefs -14.
HK: The Broncos get Drew Lock back in this game, but it might not even matter. The real matchup to discuss here is Chiefs offense versus Broncos defense. Given the Chiefs offense have essentially beaten every defense they’ve played, it is grim for the Broncos. Over the past three games, the Broncos are middle of the pack in tackles, TFLs, and interceptions and managed to give up 31 points to Taysom Hill, a player that is only barely a quarterback. Meanwhile, the Chiefs look to be at nearly full-strength with Tyreek Hill coming off a career performance. Chiefs -14.
Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday, 5:00PM)
Spread: Steelers -9.5
O/U: 43.5
AB: Mike Tomlin’s steelers are pretty notorious for underperforming against bad teams, and while Washington has improved recently I wouldn’t call them good. Washington’s pass defense, though, has been quite good this season, and the Steelers offense has left a lot to be desired in some recent games. Both these defenses are excellent, and I would not be surprised to see a final score along the lines of 13–6. WFT +9.5.
HK: As much as the Steelers offense has potential of explosive performances, with Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and James Conner, recently, they’ve shown serious flaws in the run game. In fact, over the past three games, the Steelers have ranked 31st in rushing yards and 25th in rushing touchdowns. While it is likely not a surprise that the Steelers are a pass-first team (4th in net passing yards over last three weeks), this is a Washington front that loves to rush the passer and a lopsided offensive system lets Chase Young and Montez Sweat pin their ears on pass rush on nearly every play. Meanwhile, Washington’s engine on offense has been Antonio Gibson, who helped unleash a 41 point showing on Thanksgiving. The Steelers defense has traditionally been stingy against the run, however. This will be a close matchup, far closer than the spread suggests, in my opinion. WFT + 9.5 (LOCK).
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (Monday, 8:16PM)
Spread: Bills -2.5
O/U: 48
AB: Shanahan’s 49ers had an impressive performance against the Rams last weekend, but this game has no divisional matchup voodoo and Buffalo is stacked to the gills with talent and absolutely on fire- if you have any trouble believing me, check their defensive DVOA for weeks 1–6 and then for weeks 7–12. Shanahan is a fantastic head coach, but even he can’t pull the Niners out of this one. Bills -2.5.
HK: From a pure talent perspective, the Bills are leaps and bounds better than the Niners. This offense is legit, playing with their hair on fire. Over the past three games, the Bills are first in points and in the top 6 in completions, net passing yards, and passing touchdowns. But just as worrying, over that same time period, their defense has been even more impressive (2nd in sacks, 5th in interceptions). The real question is around Niners DC Saleh and HC Shanahan and, ultimately, how much they can compensate for a team with significant injuries. Unfortunately for Saleh, one of the best defensive coordinators and a sure-fire head coaching candidate, Brian Daboll is also one of the best offensive minds in football right now, making any sort of coaching chess match net zero. The Bills cover here based on pure availability. Bills -2.5.
Week 13 Card:
AB: Parlay- Saints ML, Colts ML, Buffalo -1
HK: WFT +9.5, Jaguars +10, Raiders -7.5
Cumulative Record:
AB: 6–7
HK: 7–12
